Tuesday tips: Dave Nevison shares his best bets at Carlisle

The David and Nicola Barron-trained four-year-old has been inconsistent this season but looked as though he was back on top of his game last time out at Doncaster, whn unlucky not to win. 

He gave others fist run when stuck in traffic and did not have time to peg them back. He was obviously comfortable in a lower handicap grade and is down into the lowest grade handicap he has raced in here, so may have a class edge. 

He is top weight, but has tumbled 14lb in the ratings, plus has another useful 3lb off his back with William Pyle, who rode a winner for the yard at the weekend, taking the mount. 

Jim Goldie runs a pair who finished behind a useful and improving horse of Charlie Johnston’s last time.  Alnayef finished in front of his stablemate, Tafsir, and I am fairly convinced he will do so again here, especially with the step up in trip likely to bring about some improvement. 

Alnayef didn’t manage to win for the Gosdens but did show promise on two of his three starts for them, and looks to have been campaigned with handicapping in mind since he moved north. Kaiya Fraser takes over in the saddle. 

Dropping back in trip may well be the key here for This Years Love, especially over a stiff 7f such as this one at Carlisle. 

This Years Love likes to lead and was far too keen at Beverley last time, and probably stretched at York in a much better grade the time before. 

Back in a lower-level race here, he seems likely to get an uncontested lead and will hopefully race in a more contained manner. 

If he settles in front, then he could regain the winning thread. He won three times last season and is certainly well enough handicapped to resume winning ways.