Tote Placepot tips: Selections for Kelso on Saturday

Six-year-old novices have won all three renewals of this race, and The Kalooki Kid ticks that box, while incidentally, Nicky Richards won this race in 2022. The selection wasn’t quite up to Grade Two level when last seen, but Lump Sum and Fiercely Proud have franked that form, and stepping up in trip should suit. On the form he’s shown so far, a mark of 124 looks workable for his handicap debut.

At the other end of the scale, Brewin’upastorm is the elder statesman of the field and is running in his first handicap since 2021. While not the force of old, he’s run respectably this season and I have little doubt that Olly Murphy would’ve had him primed for the National Spirit, which we unfortunately lost to the weather last week. This is the alternative, and if in tip-top order like I suspect he will be, he should make a bold bid here in calmer waters than he's become accustom to.

Selections: The Kalooki Kid & Brewin’upastorm.

Jango Baie has standout claims as a Grade Onr winner, for all that he carries a 5lb penalty for that success. He couldn’t carry the penalty in the Sidney Banks when second to Handstands, but he’s fancied as a dark horse for the Baring Bingham so time may show that he faced a tough assignment. The stable form may be a concern for many, but I feel the sentiment may be exaggerated due to the unfortunate situation regarding Constitution Hill.

Ben Pauling trains the aforementioned Handstands, and he looks to have a strong crop of novice hurdlers this season. Personal Ambitions may not be the standout, but he’s achieved a good level of form and his forward-going run style should suit Kelso. His one disappointing run came on heavy ground at Sandown, so that’s best ignored, and his win at Warwick beating Jingko Blue reads very well now (although that rival has certainly improved).

Selections: Jango Baie & Personal Ambition.

Under Control will divide opinion this weekend, with the aforesaid stable form looming large (those concerns may be quelled or enhanced by the time of this race), and the prospect of softening ground not seemingly ideal for her. Despite those factors, to my mind she is too well handicapped to ignore. Her form with Iberico Lord has been franked time and again, and she ran with plenty of promise behind Ashroe Diamond when last seen.

Caithness is unlikely to be a popular selection, given he is 50/1 at the time of writing, but Kelso isn’t a track that suits every horse and so his rock-solid course and distance form is a big positive. His defeat of El Jefe now reads quite well, and he ran very well at Cheltenham when third to Impose Toi. That form has worked out well, and while he has been disappointing on his last two starts, they came on sharp, right-handed tracks and I suspect he is much better left-handed. He’s a forward goer, which suits Kelso, and he can go well at a big price.

Selections: Under Control & Caithness.

An interesting race; Cloth Cap won this enroute to running in the Grand National, which will be Monbeg Genius’s ultimate aim, but the absence since the Coral Gold Trophy does concern me.

As an alternative, I like the chances of Thunder Rock despite being wrong at the weights. His form with Datsalrightgino and Mahler Mission now reads well, and it’s easy to forget that that was only four/three runs ago respectively, with his high-profile disappointment in the December Gold Cup overshadowing those achievements. His confidence looked restored at Musselburgh when last seen, and I believe these small-field conditions races are far more suitable than big field handicaps for him. He’s still unexposed at this trip, which has always promised to suit.

Selection: Thunder Rock.

Special Rate’s rapid progression may not halt just yet. Admittedly, his last win was a match race in which his only rival fell before the race developed, but his previous win at Kelso is solid form; Jet Legs was second, and he’s a progressive young horse in his own right and won next time out. That form is of far more substance than the current favourite, Imperial Bede, has to offer having won a very weak race at Southwell on chase debut. Special Rate looks a far more solid proposition.

Selection: Special Rate.

A trappy juvenile race to conclude the Placepot, with two hurdling debutants making this hard to assess. The first firm to price this up had just half a point separating the front four in the betting, which shows just how open this looks.

Mojo Ego sets the standard but must be considered vulnerable under a penalty. However, if the hurdling debutants are not fancied, he could well be good enough.

To my mind, this is a race where market vibes will be key and so I will be selecting the unnamed SP favourite.

Selection: Unnamed SP favourite.