It all comes down to Sandown showdown for Skelton and Mullins

The one certainty heading into the final day of the Jump Trainers’ Championship is that the runner-up will become the first person in history to miss out on the title after accumulating more than £3 million in prize money. 

That is unlikely to be much consolation to Dan Skelton or Willie Mullins as they head to Sandown Park locked together for what has become racing’s equivalent of a penalty shootout. 

Skelton has been a relentless front-runner, intent on pounding his rivals into submission. And, by and large, that’s what he has done, at least to the other 600 or so British trainers who hold a licence. 

But Mullins, the defending champ, has emerged from the pack, having given himself the most audacious of hold-up rides. 

His in-running commentary up to now might read “slow away, took little interest until March, tailed off heading to Cheltenham, still plenty to do going to Aintree, relentless headway and staying on strongly”. 

The mountain that he has had to climb has almost been conquered and from nowhere he’s got to almost there. He hasn’t led once in this 358-day marathon, but it’s who is leading at the end of the 358th day that counts. 

Most believe that his momentum is going to carry him to the front in the nick of the time. 

Mullins has reloaded his canons and is taking aim at the final day riches. He’s declared 21 runners, no fewer than ten of them in the £175,000 bet365 Gold Cup. There’s prize money down to eighth and the 68-year-old has given himself the chance of scooping the lot. 

“Dan is out in front and has the points on the board. You can think about the points you hope to get but as you see in the football Premiership every year having them on the board is worth anything," Mullins said on Thursday. "Dan has some nice chances over the next few days and it will come down to Sandown on Saturday.  

“One of us will come away disappointed and one will come away with the cookie jar as I call it – we have kept all our sweets in the British trainers’ championship cup this year and anybody that came in was offered one. There might be one or two left in the bottom on Saturday. I think the title is still up for grabs – it’s never that simple." 

Skelton, 40, has given his title push everything and has traded at the minimum price of 1.01 on Betfair to win the title. He goes into the final day with a lead of £68,483, but, relative to Mullins, it feels like he is going into the final battle armed with a peashooter, with many of his nine runners in the most valuable races on Saturday being outsiders.

He is outnumbered ten to one in the day's big handicap chase. His chances of winning a first championship seem similar, although Paddy Power only go 4-1 (as of 5pm on Thursday), with Mullins quoted at 1-7.

The long and winding road to Esher began on May 4 last year, when Skelton made his intentions clear from the outset. He landed the first race of the season – a maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter – and before the month was out had chalked up 20 more winners and scooped £166,981 in prize money. 

By November, when the core season got under way, he had already breached £1 million barrier; with £2 million being achieved in January. 

Mullins? It took him almost until the end of February to match the tally that Skelton had secured in May. He came from a long way back when securing the title last year, but even he could not give his main rival almost a ten-month head start, could he? 

But then the tide began to turn. Mullins had ten winners at the Cheltenham Festival (plus a stack of placed runners) and scooped the first four races (all Grade One affairs) on the first day of Aintree’s Grand National meeting before saddling the first three in the big race itself, plus five of the first seven. The impossible has suddenly become possible. 

Skelton has been looking over his shoulder for the past three weeks and, despite keeping on pluckily, the line looks like coming up a day  too late for him. 

"If I get beat this year, I won’t feel disappointed," he said. "If I had assumed in the weeks before Cheltenham I was going to get beat then I would feel disappointed because we had such a lead but you can’t legislate for Willie taking £860,000 out of the Grand National.

"We were in the position that if he won it we would still be OK and even if he had first and second but we are now in this end of season struggle and massively odds on to get beat.

“It’s an unexpected situation but not one I am overly frustrated about because at the end of the day we made Willie raise his bar which was high already and made him do even better than last year, which is some statement. If we get beat, we just have to try again next year. We have a stronger team for next year so I am not frightened of the future. Concentrating on the here and now, we  are going to give it our absolute best."

Horse racing is gloriously unscripted. Could there be a final twist or two? Here’s how their respective teams match up. 

Prize money: £100,000 

SKELTON RUNNERS: none. 

MULLINS RUNNERS: none 

Verdict: The opening contest is only open to those horses who have been placed in the first four in a Novices' Championship Hurdle Series Qualifier during the current season. Skelton and Mullins have missed a trick and will be twiddling their thumbs as the action unfolds. 

Prize money: £40,000. First: £20,812. Second: £9,568. Third: £4,784. Fourth: £2,392. Fifth: £1,196. Sixth: £596. 

SKELTON RUNNER: Riskintheground. 

MULLINS RUNNERS: none 

Verdict: A free hit for Skelton, with Mullins opting to run several of his possible runners in the more richly endowed bet365 Gold Cup later on the card. Riskintheground arrives on a roll after recent wins at Ayr and Cheltenham. This will be his third run in 15 days, but he loves good ground and is only 2lb higher than for his latest success. 

Prize money: £80,000. First: £45,560. Second: £17,096 Third: £8,560. Fourth £4,264. Fifth: £2,144. Sixth: £1,072. 

SKELTON RUNNER: Boombawn 

MULLINS RUNNERS: Appreciate It, Classic Getaway, Gaelic Warrior, Gentleman De Mee. 

Verdict: All four of the Mullins team are officially rated higher than Boombawn, with Gaelic Warrior the standout in his team. The seven-year-old had been having a dull season until bursting back to life at Aintree last time, where he won at the main expense of the Skelton-trained Grey Dawning. 

That was a big swing moment of about £90,000. Topham winner Gentleman De Mee gives Mullins extra cover, and he’s pitched in Appreciate It and Classic Getaway – one-two in a Grade Two at Thurles in January, just because he can. 

Prize money: £80,000. First: £45,560. Second: £17,096. Third: £8,560. Fourth: £4,264. Fifth: £2,144. Sixth: £1,072. 

SKELTON RUNNERS: Gwennie May Boy, Take No Chances. 

MULLINS RUNNER: Kitzbuhel.

Verdict: Lossiemouth is staying at home, presumably to wait for next week’s Punchestown Festival, but Mullins still has the likely favourite in Kitzbuhel, who drops back in trip after not getting home over 3m at Aintree last time. 

Take No Chances has been a model of consistency all season and seems sure to give it another good go, and the outsider of the field, Gwennie May Boy, is guaranteed to pick up something provided she completes. 

Prize money: £175,000. First: £99,662. Second: £37,397. Third: £18,725. Fourth: £9,327. Fifth: £4,690. Sixth: £2,345. 

SKELTON RUNNERS: Harper’s Brook, Unexpected Party. 

MULLINS RUNNERS: Energumene, Il Etait Temps. 

Verdict: Jonbon, trained by Nicky Henderson, is odds-on to retain his crown and make it six wins from as many starts at Sandown, although jumping lapses have cost him the odd race and his usual jockey, Nico De Boinville, is on the sidelines. 

Energumene and Il Etait Temps will be waiting in the wings if he fluffs his lines, although the ground is likely to be on the lively side for the former and the latter has been absent for a year. Grand Annual runner-up Unexpected Party could well outrun his odds, but the enigmatic Harper’s Brook is 100-1 in this company. 

Prize money: £175,000. First: £98,472. Second: £37,100. Third: £18,567. Fourth: £9,275. Fifth: £4,655. Sixth: £2,327. Seventh: £1,155.  Eighth: £595. 

SKELTON RUNNER: Holy Joe Smoke. 

MULLINS RUNNERS: Grangeclare West, Minella Cocooner, Dancing City, High Class Hero, Lombron, Olympic Man, O’Moore Park, Spanish Harlem, Chosen Witness, Klarc Kent. 

Verdict: Here comes the big wave that seems likely to wash Skelton’s title dreams away. Mullins is responsible for half of the 20 runners and before that reignites a debate about trainers being capped in the big handicaps, it is worth noting that all his ten runners are owned by different people! He’s going to be a seriously busy man in the paddock beforehand. 

His squad all have different profiles, but you can make a case, or at least half a case, for all of them. Barring serious misfortune, Mullins seems sure to dominate. 

Skelton will have to rename Holy Joe Smoke Holy Moley if he manages fend them all off. He’s won twice at Sandown this season but, in common with seven of the home team, is languishing out of the weights because Mullins has declared Grangeclare West, who has finished runner-up in the Irish Gold Cup and third in the Grand National this campaign. Don’t even think of pulling him out on the day Willie . . . 

Prize money: £35,000. First: £18,210. Second: £8,372. Third: £4,186. Fourth: £2,093. Fifth: £1,046. Sixth: £521. 

SKELTON RUNNERS: Mostly Sunny, Got Grey. 

MULLINS RUNNERS: Bunting, King Alexander, Dr Eggman, Jump Allen. 

Verdict: One way or another, it’s going to be all over by now, isn’t it? This is going to represent a warm down session before everyone takes a deep breath and starts thinking of the 2025-26 campaign. There will be a whole week for the dust to settle.

May the best man win.