Lydia Hislop: Here's my Pic for Stayers' Hurdle day at Cheltenham

The market move for juvenile GALILEO DAME on Saturday presaged her declaration here, taking advantage of the generous weight-for-age allowance rather than taking on the likes of East India Dock and Lulamba in the Triumph.

She jumped and settled better for being ridden for cover when a strongly rallying second in the DRF’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle, having pulled her way to the front on debut over Christmas but proving unsuitable for making her own running.

She should get plenty of cover in this big field whilst her wealth of experience on the Flat – a discipline in which she was rated 96 and deemed good enough to try the Irish Oaks – should mean it won’t come as a culture shock. This track also plays well to those delivered late over hurdles and her trainer Joseph O’Brien has already made the scoreboard this week.

Favourite Sixandahalf – rated just 2lb lower on the Flat after signing off with third in the Irish Cesarewitch – has taken beautifully to hurdles and represents another trainer in Gavin Cromwell whose Cheltenham string is plainly in rude health. She must be feared, even if it appears quite the task to concede 10lb to her younger rival.

Switcheroo alert as long-time favourite Jagwar lines up in the Plate later on whilst multiply entered but hitherto homeless Springwell Bay ends up under top-weight here. Having pulled too hard in small-field weight-for-age novice chases, he looked far more at home in a well-run handicap at this track on New Year’s Day. He merits respect.

But PIC ROC should receive the positive ride so suited to this course and distance, because there’s improvement to be found in him not only ultimately back over further but first using his stride as an asset at this trip. I think we can rely on Ben Jones to do this – a jockey who registered his second Festival success on Tuesday and has ridden with conspicuous assurance this season.

There’s always a possibility this combination of circumstances will unlock Firefox’s potential over fences but he hasn’t looked the smoothest of jumpers so far. A step up in trip will surely bring about an improved performance from Asian Master, but his tall rider Thomas Costello – who rode him very well to finish a place behind Firefox in fourth in last year’s Supreme – is likely to put up overweight here, based on his record this season. 

However, Firefox’s stablemate WHAT’S UP DARLING might prove best of the Irish, having finished a promising sixth in last year’s Martin Pipe and caught the eye repeatedly of late.

No strong view on this race, so I’ll leave this to Matt Tombs.

The envisaged scenario of this race sees Il Est Français deliver an Allaho-type set-up – the 2021 vintage, when ridden ultra-aggressively by Rachael Blackmore. That means him working to the front by at least the third fence, if not sooner, and building up a head of steam, using the undulations to get breathers in places and get a roll on in others.

Those tactics would likely see Protektorat keeping the closest tabs – and he’s more capable of that than was Min four years ago, whose ballooning jumping was in stark contrast to Allaho’s attacking style. This would permit Mark Walsh to ride Fact To File more unfetteredly than in his last two starts at Leopardstown this season, when conscious that energy wasted translated to a greater thumping Galopin Des Champs. This theory ends with Protektorat acting as the bridge to enable Fact To File to bear down on Il Est Français without him doing the chasing himself.

Of course, we all had a strong idea about how the Champion Hurdle and the Arkle were going to pan out, too. Yet from an early stage, the script for each of those races was looking a bit shaky and by the end of the race had been ripped up, vomited on and ritually burned. It’s a horse race; stuff happens. Otherwise, we’d award these things on a points basis.

I wish, as was the case with Allaho, I had the reassurance that the French raider handles Cheltenham. Admittedly, he doesn’t jump in that nonchalant Gallic manner that gives me the heebie-jeebies about shorties at this place but he has been most impressive at pancake-flat Kempton. The fact he has bled more than once in the past adds another concern, albeit trainer Noel George has only offered positive reports since Kempton. I’d love him to win but there are too many worries at the odds available.

Protektorat was my long-range section in this race last year and right back to his best at Windsor in January, loving a sharp track that rewarded positivity and accurate jumping, but his current price asks punters to take several points shorter than last year’s shallower contest. I wouldn’t be surprised if Harry Skelton tries to put my selection’s jumping under pressure, by the way, so James Reveley is going to have to be alive to that. Standby with the lighter fluid.

Fact To File is arguably the most solid, but he’s a mighty short price in a race likely to be run at a high-stakes tempo. Instead, I’m going to take a position that acknowledges his relative paucity of drawbacks by taking ENVOI ALLEN each-way in the ‘without’ market that excludes him.

Envoi Allen ran right up to his best in early November and yet has been overlooked on the basis of one bad run – namely flopping in the King George, which is exactly what he did prior to winning this in 2023. Down Royal and Cheltenham are his two favourite places; Kempton seemingly isn’t. It’s a bit soon to be writing him off, stable wellbeing permitting.

Bar Workahead (who stopped so quickly something physical must have gone wrong), Henry de Bromhead’s other three team members performed about as well as expected on Tuesday. After being out of form prior to the Festival, to the extent the trainer himself expressed some concerns, there had been steady signs of recovery. My caveat is that I’m writing this before racing on Wednesday, so back away from this opinion if the yard’s fortunes have headed provably south.

Is Teahupoo in comparable form to when winning last year? It’s hard to tell on the basis of one run back in November when beaten by Lossiemouth – head and shoulders the best in the Mares’ Hurdle on Tuesday – in a race that developed into a test of speed on the quickest ground (good on times) he’s encountered since eased down in the 2022 Champion Hurdle.

Perhaps that’s the basis on which Gordon Elliott has argued this week it was a better performance in defeat in the Hatton’s Grace than when winning the previous year? I get the concept and, even if the figures don’t bear him out, it was an effort in the same ball-park as his unlucky-late-on Stayers’ Hurdle third two years ago.

I’m working on the basis Teahupoo will give his running and if he drifts as a result of nearly everyone on the Festival preview circuit opposing him, I’ll back him. I don’t expect the ground on the first day of the New Course to be quick enough to cause him issues, even if it might not be as soft as it was for his two peak efforts last season. You can as yet still argue that improvement was maturity-related rather than going-related, by the way.

For the purposes of this column, however, he’s just too short to be interesting. So, I’m turning to the ‘without Teahupoo’ market. Most of his rivals he’s seen off before and I can’t fancy them to change the act, so I’m turning to two rare progressive rivals to chase him home.

Perpetually underestimated LUCKY PLACE is unproven at this trip – not usually something I like in this race. Yet with no obvious pace angle in this renewal, a turn of foot (which Teahupoo also possesses) will be an advantage. He handles the track, ran fourth in last year’s Coral Cup whilst most of his stablemate were in the sanatorium, and has always shaped like a stayer since his very first steps on a racetrack.

My other angle has the opposite potential concern. THE WALLPARK became outpaced in a steadily run Long Walk Hurdle last time, his first attempt at graded level. It was a soundly run Pertemps Qualifier that he won over the course and distance here in December. Yet Elliott sounds increasingly warm on his chances and, having also won this race with the mighty Sire Du Berlais, he knows what he’s talking about.

I should add that Rocky’s Diamond is undoubtedly another improver in the field, but rarely has he seen a hurdle at which he hasn’t made some form of error. When the chips are down, I’d be worried about that final flight.

When I was keen on MASACCIO running in this race rather than the Jack Richards, I had assumed – like the markets – his near-four-length Trials Day conqueror Jagwar would run there rather than here. Curses. Nonetheless, with first-time cheekpieces applied to help him travel, a 6lb pull and hold a prominent position, I anticipate a big run from Alan King’s representative.

Back now: Masaccio each-way at 10/1 with bet365 or 888 Sport (both 5 places at 1/5 odds)

Following his weekend Pointing treble in Ireland, it would be quite something were Alan O’Sullivan, younger brother of Michael, to win this with Walking On Air. I dare say you won’t find anyone in the sport who wouldn’t wish it, their father William having observed at the funeral of his late son that Michael would want their family to support Alan in whatever decisions he makes and “to find joy in his achievements”.

It's far from unlikely, too, as Alan’s mount was surely coming to win the Great Yorkshire Chase last time out (when professionally ridden) only to fall at the last. He’s also shown aptitude for this task when a repeatedly hampered fifth in the 2023 Pertemps when trained by Nicky Henderson.

What’s more his relatively new trainer Gary Brown has trained a past runner-up in this race – Marching Marquis, who was second to Honey Mount in 2000 – as well as riding an Aintree Foxhunters winner himself for John Manners in Killeshin in 1994. Maybe, just maybe…

In the hands of Derek O’Connor, it’s possible Johnnywho could at last deliver on his palpable talent rather than be held back by his propensity to make mistakes. Git Maker was unfortunate enough to run into an O’Connor-delivered future Gold Cup hope in Inowthewayurthinkin in this race last year. Subsequently also second in the Scottish Grand National, he clearly has claims if first-time cheekpieces revive him after jumping in laboured fashion at Haydock last time

However, I like another couple in this race. The first is MIDNIGHT OUR FRED, who’s three times previously finished second at Cheltenham outside the Festival yet shapes like an improved performer this season. Second to National hope Perceval Legallois at Leopardstown over Christmas, doing best of the prominently positioned horses. Fourth-placed Nick Rockett, who received a similar ride, has since won both the Thyestes and Bobbyjo Chases. Unraced since, this fella goes well fresh and benefits from the services of Noel McParlan, who won this race in 2018 on Missed Approach.

MINT BOY is my other fancy, having shaped well stepped back up in trip behind High Class Hero at Punchestown last time out. He will surely do better for this extra accent on stamina and has a good chance of finally securing multiple Irish champion Point rider Barry McNeill his elusive and much-deserved first Festival success. He was agonisingly headed in the final strides of the 2022 St James’s Place Festival Hunter Chase on Pointing win-machine, Winged Leader.