Lydia Hislop: Get into Comfort Zone for Coral Cup bid

Over the past fortnight, the Festival preview circuit convinced itself ante-post favourite FINAL DEMAND would be unsuited by drying conditions in a race often dominated by nascent two-milers in a crawl-sprint, and therefore defect to the Albert Bartlett. That surely was the underlying dynamic when declarations came through on Tuesday with some firms producing a revised market topped instead by The New Lion.

Yet speak to literally anyone in the Willie Mullins camp, or to the horse’s owners, during this period and it wasn’t even on their minds he’d go for the longer race. “Oh, I wasn’t dreaming of the Albert Bartlett,” the trainer said, in near-incredulous tones, in the Racing TV round-up interview he conducted with Nick Luck at the end of the Dublin Racing Festival.

Since then, pretty much every Mullins you can shake a stick at has tipped the horse for the Turners, Danny bringing up the full house during Monday’s Road To Cheltenham preview show when asked which Closutton horse he couldn’t see beaten this week. 'Nuff said.

Final Demand impressed me with his positive attitude to jumping on debut at Limerick over Christmas and only enhanced his credentials with a dominant success at the Leopardstown, travelling powerfully, challenging straightforwardly when asked by Paul Townend, and drawing clear by 12 lengths for mere hands-and-heels riding.

He could indeed be vulnerable if this race plays to the turn of foot of a nippier horse. Yet that angle shouldn’t be exaggerated as it was good-to soft-ground when he was so impressive last time and stablemate Kappa Jy Pyke can go forward to keep front-running domestic hope Sixmilebridge honest. Final Demand himself took up the running before three out on debut, so would have no problem going on after four out. Therefore, to a large degree, Townend has it within his own power to ensure it’s not a speed test.

The Yellow Clay, a consistent and straightforward horse, might be his closest pursuer rather than The New Lion, whose Challow form saw him look stylish against stayers. After having his colours lowered by Sixmilebridge when unexpectedly turning up here on Trials Day and reportedly undercooked, unnervingly Potters Charm wears a first-time tongue-tie.

I was struck by how earnestly BALLYBURN tried to keep himself in the game when defeated by brilliant debutant Sir Gino over two miles at Kempton, despite his younger and speedier rival persistently outjumping him at every fence bar the first. These were two very smart horses with divergent distance requirements clashing at Christmas, meaning Willie Mullins’ first string has been set on the correct path ever since.

At the DRF, I was impressed by how Ballyburn put five lengths between himself and more hardened novice Croke Park from the last to the line, despite executing the lesser jump at the last. He will surely improve again for this step up to three miles despite his lemme-go-faster run style, and boasts an element of class his much-of-a-muchness rivals can’t match.

History suggests stablemates Dancing City, Quai De Bourbon and Lecky Watson all lack experience for this task with merely two chase starts under their belts, before I even again mention the statistical fool’s errand of backing outside Mullins’ stable-jockey’s choice in Grade Ones.

Dancing City has been pigeonholed as a plodder and he certainly got outpaced before winning the Sefton via stamina on soft going at Aintree. Yet he clinched a steadily run affair at Punchestown with a turn of foot on good-to-soft ground at Punchestown the following month – Better Days Ahead, Stellar Story and Lecky Watson behind him in third, fourth and fifth – so go figure?

Perhaps, as Ruby Walsh argued on our preview show on Monday, he improves for keeping busy? That was his sixth start last season. Although I prefer others on this occasion, I’m also convinced his defeat of smart staying mare Bioluminescence is strong form despite her subsequent defeat.

I was half-expecting some focussing headgear to be applied to stuttery jumper Lecky Watson, who’s prone to distraction and will need an organising ride from Sean O’Keeffe. Patrick Mullins’ mount Quai De Bourbon will undoubtedly improve for this step up in trip and looks underestimated as the outsider of the field, even though he lacks racing and might ideally prefer more testing ground. He was only two lengths behind Better Days Ahead at level weights in last term’s Martin Pipe and has taken well – if a shade deliberately so far – to fences.

It's that rival whom I fancy to pursue Ballyburn home most closely, despite almost getting reeled in by stable companion and fellow 2024 Festival winner Stellar Story when in receipt of 5lb at Navan last time. The latter jumps erratically and may need testing ground, such as when well-positioned to win last year’s Albert Bartlett with Dancing City back in third.

Better Days Ahead seemed to be idling in front in the Grade Two Ten Up Novices’ Chase, but was holding Stellar Story at the line. He looks a thorough stayer at the trip, so I prefer to think him being checked when Croke Park drifted left across his path at Leopardstown over Christmas was the cause of that narrow defeat rather than him throwing the race away. To get the best out of him, Jack Kennedy will have to be assertive from some way out – as when beating Slade Steel over half a mile shorter in November – even though that might set up the race for Ballyburn.

Gorgeous Tom rattled home from rear after getting outpaced over two-and-a-half miles in the Drinmore in which he was ultimately beaten only three-quarters of a length by Croke Park into fourth. Although we haven’t seen him race since the first day of December, that was surely deliberate to avoid testing ground and was already his fourth start over fences. I could see him running a big race stepped up in trip, but he’s been found in the market by now.

I’ve had two horses in mind for this race for some time and both are set to line up.

No Langer Dan this year but Be Aware has an excellent chance of making it three on the bounce in this race for Dan Skelton. He shaped as though needing this trip when outpaced behind the principals at Ascot last time, making an unhelpful mistake two out as a result.

He’d previously done very well to split Burdett Road and Dysart Enos – both of whom contest graded events this week – when coming from further back than either of them in the Greatwood Hurdle for second. However, at 5/1 in a rough-house race like the Coral Cup has little appeal.

Instead, I’m siding with COMFORT ZONE. He won a couple of Grade Two events as a juvenile, here and at Chepstow, and was among the favourites for the 2023 Triumph until hitting a setback.

Crucially, he’s since gained experience in big-field handicaps – catching the eye for future targets at Punchestown last May, third at Galway with first-time cheekpieces when making an ill-timed error, and staying on strongly for third last time at the DRF despite having his rhythm interrupted when checked on landing two out against pillar-to-post winner Al Gasparo.

Unexposed at this trip, Comfort Zone is also the chosen mount of JP McManus’s retained rider Mark Walsh.

GALVIN and Vanillier are the class angles in this race but although first-time blinkers seemed to enliven the latter – winner of the 2021 Albert Bartlett and subsequently second to Corach Rambler in the 2023 – the former has an even stronger Cheltenham record, not to mention a touch more zip.

This will be his sixth Festival appearance, having most notably finished second in the 2020 Pertemps, won the 2021 NH Chase and taken fourth in the 2022 Gold Cup prior to chasing home defending champion Delta Work in this event in 2023. He also looked unfortunate not to finish second in last year’s Grand National due to its uncharacteristic lack of emphasis on stamina.

This season, he was a highly creditable second in the American Grand National – in actuality a hurdles race – back in October and is presumably being aimed at Aintree again, hence why we haven’t seen him until now. That a horse of his calibre, even at the age of eleven, is 1lb lower than in April (and even receiving weight from Stumptown whilst being the longer price) feels wrong.

Critical blinkers are reapplied to Busselton, a Kerry National winner in his day. He’s had a couple of spins here to get accustomed to this new discipline and looks the most interesting of the lower-weighted horses now this event has returned to handicap conditions for the first time since 2015. But, as our Road To Cheltenham guest Matt Tombs explained in our handicap special show (watch below), the last five winners would still have succeeded had it been staged then on these terms.

If you’ve been tuning in for Road To Cheltenham or reading my column during this series, you’ll already know I don’t buy the theory that JONBON is vulnerable at Cheltenham. This is a chaser in his prime, his maturity plain to see since seasonal debut when he presented as a more serene character than the sweaty jitter-ball we got used to seeing in his younger days.

His best performances are indeed his last two in the Tingle Creek and Clarence House. Yes, they took place on right-handed tracks because that’s where both of Britain’s pre-Festival Grade Ones are staged. In my view, the improvement he showed coincided with track orientation rather than being causal.

Jonbon needs no excuses for finishing second to Constitution Hill in the 2022 Supreme and was beaten by a more precocious novice-chasing talent in El Fabiolo in the Arkle; he’s the one whose career has gone on. He’s also won two Shloer Chases at Cheltenham on seasonal debut when logically unlikely to be at peak fitness.

Finally, he’d been kept in a holding pattern for seven days after being primed for last year’s Clarence House when Ascot was abandoned and the race restaged at Cheltenham. Less mentally mature than now, he also had an unfamiliar jockey but might still have won if not precipitately asked to recover from his mistake four out.

You may say that’s a lot of excuses to explain away one simple accusation, but the thirst for a simple answer isn’t Jonbon’s problem. More disconcerting is the record of short-priced favourites in this contest. Yet again, that’s understandable – one mistake and you’re gone in elite two-mile races. Whilst I want and expect the dominant force in this division simply to win, his odds propel me towards the ‘without the favourite’ market for a bet.

My pick-up-the-pieces angle is LIBBERTY HUNTER, last year’s Grand Annual runner-up who goes well at this track and has found further improvement this season. I expect him to be ridden to hit the frame, as on pure form he can’t mix it with Jonbon, and with Adam Wedge at the controls there’s a real chance of him finishing a smuggled second in a race with many question-marks about hitherto more achieving rivals.

Marine Nationale’s chasing career has been steadily building, so this is a big day for him but he has on occasion appeared flaky under pressure since his Supreme success under a magnificent ride from the late Michael O’Sullivan.

Veteran Energumene has twice appeared to be the last man standing in this race yet with substantial performances on the clock. You can argue he needs deeper ground these days but his Clarence House second on good-to-soft is the best form on paper this season outside of Jonbon himself.

Last year’s Arkle runner-up Found A Fifty has been overlooked since pulling up with nasal discharge over Christmas after jumping out to his right even more than usual. I wonder whether Gordon Elliott’s team have found a niggle with his back in the meantime? Keep an ear out. The worth of his Fortria defeat of Solness – whose improvement I believe but still don’t fancy him to replicate his hare-rail right-jumping Leopardstown tactics on the ever-turning Old Course – and Senecia has been well-advertised.

With my long-term angle into this race not running, I’ve had to have a re-think. On the basis that JAZZY MATTY enjoyed a strongly run race to get on top in the 2023 Fred Winter under Michael O’Sullivan, I’ve concluded he wasn’t seen to best effect in a steadily run affair here over fences behind Path D’Oroux in October.

He had a tough task at the weights that day and ran very well in that context, but there’s reason to believe the hustle and bustle of this race will extract further improvement. He’s since run only once over hurdles, suggesting his connections didn’t want to risk stuffing up a viable handicap mark until the Festival.

I’m casting a wary eye at perennial plot horse So Scottish, if his wind surgery works the proverbial, and at last year’s winner Unexpected Party, but he’s been fully engaged in suitable races this season unlike last year.

Yet perhaps more interesting for an each-way saver is the latter’s former stable companion THIRD TIME LUCKI, who ran fourth in this race two years ago and, after 584 days on the sidelines, shaped as though retaining his ability here in November. You’re backing that his falling mark is all part of the plan rather than accurately reflecting any dwindling ability, of course, but at 22/1 I don’t mind that. You can certainly throw out his last run when he was ridden far too aggressively.

I leave this race to those who follow bumper form, but love to study the runners on the day with future years in mind. Copacabana has been Ruby’s idea of the winner since making his debut at Navan in February and he’s also the chosen vehicle of Patrick Mullins, who’s seeking a fifth victory in the event.