Johnny Ward's Irish racing tips: Planning a 50-1 Coup!

The feature Watch Racing TV Irish EBF Lenebane Stakes (8.00) looks a decent betting heat at Roscommon on Tuesday, but conditions are difficult to call.A revised Met Éireann forecast had course staff and clerk Shane Ryder worried there would be firm going in places and as such some watering has taken place, with some sand applied to the bends to ensure they are as safe as possible.If you want a mud lover, it might not be ideal ground, but it may well be softer than good, as it is difficult to know how much rain will fall after what was close to the hottest weather this region has experienced since records began.What a shame to see Aqueduct, the track most local to my cousins in New York, close. I am looking forward to working on the channel at Roscommon, the track closest to where I grew up, while I am also putting one up at Wexford.

The previous run is a concern but this mare was plainly unlucky not to win over hurdles in what was effectively a handicap off 98 at Downpatrick. I wouldn’t bank on her jumping but she is in excellent hands and clearly well-handicapped.

Pace aplenty on paper in this. Toy Soldier hung right at Down Royal and the blinkers are replaced by a visor but off 2lb higher he is very hard to get away from here. Dylan Browne McMonagle, who rode him when he was fourth at Killarney, is on board. He will not mind the rain and that is a concern for Blue Anthem, very much an eye-catcher here last time and a major class dropper but risky if the ground is in any way soft.

This is a much better race for Adel, at least on paper, but I was very taken with his attitude when he scored here last time, after which rider Jamie Powell advised a drop in trip, which his trainer has heeded.

Honouramongthieves flopped when I tipped him in Newbury, with Nermal notably interesting on the Down Royal form, but the selection’s stamina could be a key factor, especially if the ground is yielding or worse.

Two big-priced bites of the cherry here.

I am not sure how Counting Coup has been put in at 50-1, after smashing an in-form Daddy Long Legs on what was only his second start. His trainer says he is exciting and he is well worth his place here, with the ground possibly not soft enough for Chally Chute. Each-way looks the play but a non-runner would obviously be feared

Noel Meade is a pragmatic campaigner and he must feel that Dreamkeeper has a shot at black type, which – given how good she was when stepped up to 12 furlongs at Fairyhouse – is absolutely feasible at 14-1 and bigger.

This mare only made her second start as a five-year-old. Perhaps that was partly why she was sent off 125-1 at The Curragh but she ran far above that and must have a major chance in a weak enough race here if she builds on that for the in-form John Murtagh, especially if the rain arrives sufficiently.