The Verdict Extra: Matisse makes Classic appeal at 16-1

The Verdict this week focused on the Curragh and Newmarket, with the emphasis on the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby, and I believe the RaceiQ data reveals that

Los Angeles

is a lot better than just a strong stayer. He has a smart change of gear which will make him competitive in races like the King George and Queen Elizabeth II stakes at Ascot. I think he is way too big at 10-1 for that race, although backing him ante-post is fraught with chaos given that connections also have entered.  

The RaceiQ Time Index scores, which look at the times achieved and compares them historically with times achieved on the same ground in the same class of races, shows that there was a marked difference in the going on both days, and suggests that it dried out considerably following racing on Saturday. 

Here are the average RaceiQ Time Index scores: 

Saturday: 4.73 

Sunday: 8.43. 

RaceiQ Time Index scores in more detail note race six, which is the performance of where he achieved an outstanding Time Index score of 10):

I did not feature the Gain Railway Stakes on The Verdict but, on reflection, I think the winner is a very smart two-year-old who is worth backing for next year's Betfred 2000 Guineas at the general 16-1 on offer.

Henri Matisse's performance at the Curragh has 2000 Guineas written all over it. Amidst inexperience, Aidan O'Brien's youngster accelerated from the back of the field to win impressively. This was a strongly-run race, and there was clearly some benefit to being held up, but nonetheless, produced some very impressive data.  

The son of Wootton Bassett was the only horse in the race to produce two back-to-back sub-11.00s furlongs. His final two furlongs were recorded as being 23.31s, compared to The Strikin Viking in second who was always prominent and recorded a split of 23.64s.   

Furlong 4: 10.84s

Furlong 5: 10.97s

He was also fastest through the final furlong with a 12.34s split compared to the runner–up who recorded 12.60s.  

Henri Matisse may have derived some advantage from being held up, but he still had to run down a horse who was not stopping. The Strikin Viking (2nd) recorded a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 101.23% meaning he ran the final two furlongs 1.23% quicker than the previous  four, and Henri Matisse was able to give him a head start and still run him down by recording an FSP of 102.58%.

To be fastest through each of the final three furlongs displays his dominance over this field and tells us that he was value for more than the narrow winning margin suggests. He looks set to forge a path towards the Betfred 2000 Guineas next year.  

Rainbows Edge

and Morrophore 

Race: First (Rainbows Edge) and third (Morrophone) in the Long Shot Seltzer Spring Fillies' Novice Stakes at .

This is a Fillies' Novice Stakes that is worth following, and the two youngsters I will be keeping an eye on both hail from the Gosden team.  

Rainbows Edge won with some ease having travelled strongly throughout to take her career record to two from two, and the RaceiQ data shows that she has a sharp turn of foot. This race was not strongly run, with the first five home producing relatively strong finishes, as evidenced by their FSP’s.  

1st - Rainbows edge: FSP 106.62% 

2nd - Inherit: FSP 104.61% 

3rd - Morrophore: FSP: 106.72% 

4th - Inversion: FSP: 105.17% 

5th - Bernalda: FSP 104.52% 

If we break down the Rainbows Edge's FSP, we find that she quickened smartly. She was the only horse in the race to post sub-11.00s furlongs, and she did that twice. She recorded 10.90s in the sixth furlong and 10.94s in the seventh furlong, and this turn of speed took her to the front for a comfortable success.  

The best FSP was recorded by the eye-catcher in the race, Morrophore, who raced in a poor position in rear but flashed home into third. 

She did not show the same speed as the winner, but once she began to get the hang of things, she flashed home from the rear. She recorded the second-fastest final two furlongs in the race, as displayed below.  

1st - Rainbows Edge: 23.47s 

3rd - Morrophore: 23.57s 

A deeper look into how well finished reveals that she ran the fastest final furlong by recording 12.30s, compared to the winner who stopped the clock at 12.53s. This number alone tells us just how well Morrophore was getting the hang of things late on.  

Both fillies are potentially smart, and should be added to your Racing TV Tracker.

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