The Verdict Extra: "he must be followed wherever he runs next"

In The Verdict this week I had a look at the Irish Classics at the Curragh which were both steadily run, with the emphasis on finishing speed, and that is in stark contrast to their counterparts at Newmarket which were very strongly run. 

Rosallion

emerged with most credit by quickening sharply to win narrowly having been at a positional disadvantage. He won the race with two rapid furlongs of 11.06s and 11.01s, and that was speed that he was unable to show at Newmarket courtesy of a strong gallop emptying the petrol tank early in the race. 

In The Verdict Extra this week, I have a couple more races and horses of interest to analyse. Make sure you add the horses mentioned to your Racing TV Tracker to be notified when they are declared.

Race: First in the

This son of Galileo is a brother to the Irish Derby winner and may have gone under the analytical radar having won the last race at the Curragh on Sunday by eight lengths on debut. 

He produced the fastest time of the day, clocking 2m06.58s for the 10-furlong trip which was just 0.98s above standard.  

Race iQ have developed a time index graph which compares times achieved with historical data for that class of race on the same ground at the same track. This data generates a score between 0–10 to indicate whether the race performed above or below what was expected.  

Expectation can be delineated by a score of between 5 and 6. The Race iQ graph for the Curragh on Saturday is below, with Jan Breughel achieving a high score of 9.45.

This is a very high score, and one that is an indication of the raw ability of this three-year-old. Rosallion, the winner of the Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas, scored a figure of 6.7s, albeit in a steadily-run Classic. 

This does not mean that Jan Brueghel was the best horse on show at the Curragh this day, it means he ran an exceptional time on debut, and he must be followed wherever he runs next.  

Race: First (Wild Tiger) and second (Toimy Son) in the

There are two horses to follow from this race at Goodwood last Friday. Wild Tiger continued his progression in beating Toimy Son and both should be followed. Wild Tiger, who was ridden prominently, was impressive in victory, and he quickened to win readily. 

An 11.22s fifth furlong followed by an 11.59s furlong took him to the front and enabled him to win readily by 2 ½ lengths. That turn of foot was impressive and he looks the type for something like the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, which he is a general 14-1 chance for.

Toimy Son arguably shaped better than Wild Tiger. He was poorly placed in rear and although he also quickened smartly, he was too far back and could have done with the race being run at a stronger gallop. He was quicker than Wild Tiger through the final three furlongs, as shown below. 

Wild Tiger: 23.88s.

Toimy Son : 23.58s. 

Wild Tiger finishing strongly with a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 103.28%, and he proved impossible to run down, even though Toimy Son recorded a faster finish with his individual FSP recorded as being 105.10%.  

Toimy Son will be seen to much better effect in a strongly run race and he too could be a horse for a big handicap later this season. His hold-up style will be better suited to somewhere like the straight course at Ascot.