The Data Detective: Weekend clues, hints and tips

Haydock has been Dan Skelton’s third most fruitful course - eight winners and counting - during his relentless quest to win a first trainers’ title this season and Blue Carpet looks capable of giving him another success at the Lancashire venue. 

The lightly raced six-year-old has had just four runs over hurdles and has yet to finish out of the first two, taking his form up a notch when scoring off a mark at 120 over 3m at Wetherby last time. 

He was given a confident ride from of the pace and pounced in the closing stages to win at the main expense of the in-form favourite, Woodland Park, with the rest well beaten off. 

Blue Carpet was especially swift over the final three hurdles, gaining an aggregate of 8.31 lengths over them. His speed recovery times at the third last and final flight were a rapid 0.3sec and 0.34sec, enabling him to zip away. 

The data confirms his jumping is improving race by race, with his four Jump Index scores being 6.8, 7.1, 7.5 and 8.0. He’s gained an aggregate of 23 lengths and, in addition, has boasted the highest Finishing Speed Percentage on his past three starts, pointing to his strength at the finish of his races. 

He does have to cope with a 7lb rise but this improving stayer has the tools to cope with that. It could be that another improving type, Walden, who gained 11.39 lengths with his jumping when scoring at Ascot last time, gives him most to do.

Incidentally, Skelton runners are routinely defensively priced up, but his A/E (actual over expected) at Haydock is a healthy 1.49. Blue Carpet is a general 4-1 chance.

This is competitive and features several fast jumpers in Smart Decision (Jump Index 8.5), We’re Red And Blue (8.3), Williethebuilder (8.1) and Mr McLoughlan (8.0). To put that into perspective, Lossiemouth, the Champion Hurdle winner, has a career Index score of 8.2. 

The value may lie with the Christian Williams-trained Williethebuilder, who makes each-way appeal at the general 9-1 on offer. 

His accurate leaping laid the foundations for his back-to-back wins at Kempton in December and January, especially on the first occasion when he got a glowing Jump Index score of 9.1 and gained 6.69 lengths in the air. 

On the latter occasion he was less flamboyant but his jump two out, which he pinged after attacking at 34.74mph, helped give him the momentum to pull away from We’re Red And Blue. He’s only 1lb worse off with that rival, who has since finished third in the Imperial Cup, yet is more than twice his price. 

Williethebuilder also ran creditably in the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh on his next start, when he could have done with a stronger gallop, and he ran much better than the bare form suggests when down the field in the County Hurdle last time as he got hampered by a faller at the fourth flight and his rider stuck like glue to the inside, which was probably not the place to be. 

Moreover, the undulations of Cheltenham (0-4 at the track) probably do not show him to best advantage. He only jumped 15th best of the whole field and was 18th best in terms of Lengths Gained Jumping. We know he can jump better than that and the flat terrain of Haydock seems likely to serve him better. 

He’s been eased 2lb in the ratings for that Cheltenham run and 5lb conditional jockey Toby McCain-Mitchell is reunited with him after missing out at Cheltenham.

✅ 1.13 Carlisle: I Wish You

His short-head defeat of Diamond Dealer (pair clear) at Wetherby last time has been franked by the winner and, despite a 7lb rise, he’s still able to operate at this 0-120 level. He was more than a second quicker than the runner-up in the final two furlongs, enabling him to get up in the closing stages. He’s a lot better in the jumping department (Index 7.7) than the opposition on Saturday and won (over hurdles) on his only previous visit to Carlisle. 

❌ 2.23 Carlisle: King Kodiac

He’s potentially well-handicapped off a mark of 83 to judge by his third to Guet Apens here on his penultimate start, but his supporters might want to watch from behind the sofa as his jumping has been poor. His six individual Jump scores (out of 10) have been 2.8, 3.7, 3.0, 4.1, 5.4 and 4.6. His personal best of 5.4 came here, when he only lost 0.9 lengths over the obstacles. However, in his other five races he has lost an aggregate of more than 61 lengths. He should keep an eye on Gone With The Tide (7.6) and Je Mr Dawson (7.5) to see how it is done. 

❌ 3.47 Huntingdon: Forever Penwyn

The four-year-old is prominent in the betting for this 2m novices’ hurdle but this useful Flat performer still has plenty to learn about jumping. He got a Jump Index score of 3.1 on his hurdling bow at Fontwell, when he lost ground at every obstacle and almost 16 lengths in total. His lowlight was decelerating 8.43mph at the second. Last time, he got a score of 4.6 when third at Stratford in a race where none of the runners jumped well. At the third flight, he lost 9.72mph.

❌ 3.50 Fairyhouse: Petit Secret

Petit Secret, trained by Willie Mullins, is favourite for this 2m 4f Maiden Hurdle but he’s not stood much racing and fluffed his lines at 5-6 when finishing 9½ lengths third on his belated return at Leopardstown in a race won by a 115-rated rival. He got a Jump Index score of only 6.4 and did not look the easiest conveyance.

✅ 4.05 Carlisle: Two Brothers & Ryebridge

It was Mick Easterby’s 95th birthday this week and Two Brothers could give the veteran trainer a belated gift by landing this. The eight-year-old has taken well to hurdling and dead-heated with Ryebridge over course and distance last time. The pair meet again, on the same terms, and may again dominate. Two Brothers was the stronger finisher over the final half mile and his superior leaping makes him more appealing in the rematch. His three Jump Index scores have been 7.6, 9.0 and 8.2, with an aggregate of about 15 lengths swiped.

✅ 4.25 Fairyhouse: Court Compliance

The zestful Court Compliance is the most efficient jumper in this big field (Index of 7.9, next best 7.5) and is interesting moving up in trip on his handicap bow. 

JP McManus has four of the 13 runners in the Listed 2m handicap chase but it is Shuffle The Deck, chalked up at 4-1 in the early betting, stands out among them. 

He’s yet to win after three starts over fences, being beaten an aggregate of about 55 lengths over distances ranging between 2m 3f and 2m 7f. However, he has bumped into some smart opposition, including Kitzbuhel,Kaid D’Authie, Kiss Will and Koktail Divin. 

It’s his superb jumping which makes him seductive and it could be he will be in his element belatedly dropping back to 2m for his handicap bow. 

He’s been impeccable at Punchestown (twice) and Leopardstown, with his Career Jump Index score being 8.7. His individual scores have been 9.1, 9.2 and 8.9, which is some going for a novice, and he’s gained an average of more than ten lengths per race.

Shuffle The Deck has gained ground at 42 of the 47 fences he has tackled and, despite keeping some classy company, has jumped best of all at 14 of them.

The last time he ran over 2m was a year ago at Naas, when he gave 5lb and a three-length beating to Casheldale Lad, who is now rated 152 in that sphere. Shuffle The Deck runs off 133 here and it is unlikely to be his jumping that lets him down.