The Data Detective: home in on Satellite at Redcar on Saturday

There are few more satisfying sights than watching a thoroughbred tank through a race and beat a big field on the bridle.

Limato provided a vivid example when trouncing 22 rivals in the Two Year Old Trophy at Redcar in 2014. He went on to July Cup glory and much more, winning 14 of his 33 races and earning more than £1.4 million in prize money.

It's unlikely we have another Limato in Saturday’s edition of the race, but Satellite Of Love looks well above average and he is fancied to take the spoils before going on to even bigger things next season.

On official ratings, the field of 13 can be stripped doiwn to a match between Satellite Of Love (105) and Revels (104). The former’s rating is hard to quibble with after he made a valiant bid to concede 7lb to the 102-rated Night In Vegas in a similar Sales race at Doncaster last time, pulling clear of a 95-rated rival who was receiving weight.

But the latter’s is questionable given he was all out to win a handicap off a mark of 85 at Goodwood in July and well-beaten off a 5lb higher mark in a handicap at York the following month.

The assessor has bumped up Revels after his close fourth in the Mill Reef Stakes last time. He almost certainly did she some improvement, but a whole stone? That’s dubious as was well placed in a race not run at especially strong fractions, reflected by the RaceiQ Time Index being 6, when the meeting average was 6.8.

Satellite Of Love’s numbers look more solid. He won a novice stakes over 6f at Newbury in July in a time almost 1sec quicker than the RaceiQ standard (Time Index 7.1 when the meeting average was 5.9), finishing off with three “fast” furlongs.

Next time at York he had the misfortune to bump into Sun Goddess but did make encouraging late gains, finishing fifth after being 14th two out, and last time he went to another level in running Night Of Vegas to half a length (pair clear) on those unfavourable weight terms.

The Doncaster data also looks robust, with the win time being 2.11sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par (Time Index 8.5 when meeting average 7.7). Satellite Of Love was ridden much prominently than he had been at York and hung in there, being quicker than all bar the smart winner in each of the final two furlongs.

He looks easily the most solid prospect in the race and if you are a fan of banking on a particular bit of form, then you can stick him in a double with his Doncaster conqueror, Night Of Vegas, who stands out in the £200,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (1.00) at Newmarket.

The feature at Newmarket is the BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (1.35) and it is difficult to oppose Blue Bolt.

She goes from strength to strength and zipped through the final two furlongs in 23.33sec when fending off City Of Memphis, who she meets again, in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown last time. She won in a time 2.27sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. 

Moonfall has plenty going for him in the BetMGM Challenge Cup at Ascot (3.35). The George Boughey-trained three-year-old won the Britannia at Royal Ascot in June and has continued to progress, going close back at this track and at Doncaster last month.

All those runs were over a mile, but the son of crack sprinter Starman is not short of pace and the RaceiQ data points to the drop to 7f not being an issue, and perhaps even a benefit. 

For instance, when he won at Ascot in June he led well before the final furlong and three of his rivals finished stronger. And when he returned here last month, he looked sure to win when leading heading to the final furlong, only for Hickory to collar him, courtesy of being 0.48sec (about three lengths) quicker in the closing stages. 

Hickory will again be in opposition, but Moonfall can turn the tables over the shorter trip with Billy Loughnane in the saddle. The champion jockey elect’s rides at Ascot in the past year have exceeded market expectations by 24 per. cent. 

The combination will start from stall 11 and RaceiQ reckon that is ideal, giving them an instant half-length advantage. 

William Haggas had 28 winners in Britain in September, his equal best month for five years, and he has bright prospects of a Group double with Tenability (2.25) and Division (3.00).

The former is seeking a fourth course win and has yet to have a Finishing Speed Percentage worse than third in any of his races, while Division drops in class and will take some beating provided the habitually slow starter (his 0-20mph speeds make for ugly viewing) does not beat himself at the gates.

He always finishes off well and would not be winning out of turn.