Andy Stephens, also known as The Data Detective, shares his five best bets for the weekend.
2.10 Newmarket: Havana Blue
The one certainty on Saturday is that a grey horse will win the 2.10 at Newmarket (it's the annual Grey Horse Handicap).
Havana Blue would be a worthy winner, having find one too good in his past three races.
He again did little wrong when caught close home over course and distance last week, when was isolated from the bulk of the field.
The Time Index for that race was 8.5 when the meeting average was only 5.5, so it looks form to trust. he runs off the same mark here.
2.35 Newbury: Scoville
The exuberant Scoville got a Time Index of 9.1 when the meeting average was only 4.7 when a runaway winner at Newmarket last summer and he’s run much better than the bare form indicates in top mile handicaps at Royal Ascot and Goodwood on his past two starts.
In the former his rapid first furlong was among the fastest 10% of all those in the RaceiQ database for horses running over the straight mile and last time he began with three “fast” furlongs as his rider tried to negate a wide draw.
Scoville paid for his early exertions on both occasions but he’s now in shallower waters and will be dropping to 7f. He promises to take plenty of catching under Tom Marquand, whose rides have exceeded market expectations 69% at Newbury over the past year.
3.10 Newbury: Symbol Of Honour
The Charlie Appleby-trained grey is unbeaten in two starts at the track and impressed when landing the Hackwood Stakes last month.
He clocked the top speed (42.85mph) at the midway point and earned a Time Index score of 7.7 when the meeting average was 5.9.
Some will be concerned about him belatedly reverting to 7f, but he does not stride like a typical sprinter and his Newbury wins have been more about sustained galloping than sharp acceleration. This is reflected by him achieving 83.33% “Par” furlongs in those victories.
The top sprinters generate their pace by turning over lots of strides per second but Symbol Of Honour is typically lowest in this department.
This is in part due to him being a particularly long strider – he hit a peak of 8.42 metres last time – but the data lends plenty of encouragement to the theory he will be as effective over another 220 yards.
3.13 Newmarket: Eabha
Eabha is improving with racing and impressed when scoring over course and distance last week, especially as she was carried left in the closing stages.
She signed off with two "fast" furlongs to get the job done, hitting the top speed of the race (40.88mph) in the penultimate furlong.
The Time Index was 5.4, when the meeting average was 4.5, and a 5lb rise looks manageable with Billy Loughnane taking over in the saddle.
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton's Actual versus Expectd on the July Course is 1.57.
4.25 Newmarket: Stormy Music
Stormy Music was having just her fifth run, and only second in a handicap, when scoring over course and distance this month and can defy a 4lb rise.
The daughter of Night Of Thunder, trained by Andrew Balding, always looked in control under 7lb claimer Alfie Redman and impressed on the clock, winning in a time 2.33sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par with something to spare. The Time Index was 8.7, when the meeting average was only 6.1.
It was a display of sustained galloping with seven "Par" furlongs being topped up by a "fast" sixth furlong of 11.04sec.
Redman retains the ride and will arrive with a spring in his step after riding another winner for the Balding yard at Salisbury on Thursday.