The Data Detective: clues and tips for the weekend

Saturday will mark the 30-year anniversary of Aidan O’Brien having his first runner in the Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas.

He gave us a hint of what was to come that day with Rainbow Blues, a 50-1 chance, finishing runner-up.

The days of backing a lone O’Brien Classic runner at such outlandish odds have long gone, with all bar one of his subsequent 12 winners of the race going off at single-figure odds.

He has the hot favourite for Saturday’s edition in Gstaad, a best-priced 1-2 after chasing home Bow Echo in the English version at Newmarket this month.

Churchill (4-9), Gleneagles (2-5) and Rock Of Gibraltar (4-7) have been previous odds-on winners of the showpiece for the master of Ballydoyle, but he’s also had a trio of hot favourites beaten: George Washington (4-7), Giant’s Causeway (9-10) and Second Empire (4-5).

George Washington lined up having won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket but Araafa, who had finished fourth, turned the tables on him. Giant’s Causeway, like Gstaad, was seeking to go one better than at Newmarket, but Bachir, who had won the French 2000 Guineas 13 days earlier, edged him out by a neck.

There is no French Guineas standing in the way of Gstaad this time and this tough, classy colt, whose overall record makes for impressive reading, is difficult to oppose, with stablemate Neolithic almost certainly in the race to set even fractions for him.

Gstaad pulled eight lengths clear of the third home at Newmarket, Distant Storm, with Thesecretadversary and Power Blue further adrift.

They went hard that day – all the runners registered their top speeds in the second or third furlong – and Bow Echo and Gstaad were the only pair to run par furlongs, or quicker, over the final quarter of a mile.

It’s debatable whether Distant Storm was at his best but was he eight lengths below par? That seems unlikely.

Of the rest, Alapsrslan was allowed to boss steady fractions in the Greenham and the close fourth in that race, Needle Match, was beaten out of sight in the 2000 Guineas.

Here are some more clues for Saturday’s action. 

Startled put up a remarkable effort to win a slow-run race at York last time. 

The bay gelding was only 13th with two furlongs to run but flew through the final two furlongs in 24.20 seconds, when only three of his rivals dipped under 25 seconds. The three-year-old had also previously finished very fast to score at Newmarket, passing seven rivals in the final two furlongs. 

Saffie Osborne’s Actual Over Expected (A/E) is 1.22 and the data tells us that Startled is favourably drawn in stall 5, giving him an instant 0.52 length advantage. 

His form figures mask the fact that he’s not the most efficient at getting from A to B, with his career Jump Index score being 5.6 out of 10. 

He’s had nine races over hurdles and lost ground with his jumping every time, including double-digit figures on a couple of occasions. 

There’s not much jumping to be done in the closing stages at Cartmel but he might already be on the backfoot by then. Several in the field have achieved similar and are open to more improvement, while Dan Skelton’s Keops Des Bordes makes his Jumps bow. 

Danielle thrives in the mud but she’s not a one-trick pony and the 4-5 on offer could look something of a gift as she’s in a different league to the opposition here, with the official ratings giving her between 10lb and 30lb in hand.

The one niggle is that this contest could become tactical with no front-runners in the line-up, as highlighted by our pace map, but she can be ridden forward, never being far away when fourth in last year’s Park Hill.

The times were very slow at Haydock on Thursday, pointing to genuinely soft ground, and Night Raider is not going to get the quick conditions that he bounced off when making all in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket this month. 

He won in under 58sec that day, reeling off splits of 10.59sec, 10.64sec and 10.89sec for furlongs two, three and four. By contrast, none of the runners in the useful 5f handicap at Haydock on Thursday managed a furlong quicker than 11.66, with the win time almost 5sec slower than that achieved at Newmarket, even though the standard time there is a bit quicker. 

Shagraan, available at 7-1, makes each-way appeal. He could not get to grips with Night Raider in the Palace House but he was a creditable third and will not be inconvenienced by the slower surface,

Zarvali won with something to spare on his first start for Roger Fell at Catterick this month and a handicap mark of 80 may underestimate him. 

He zipped through the final two furlongs in 24.41 seconds without being fully extended, with none of his rivals managing better than 25.19 seconds. His Finishing Speed percentage of  99.76% was just above Par (97.90%). 

Zarvali was bred by The Aga Khan’s Studs and ran in his colours when trained by Johnny Murtagh last year. On his final run, in what looked a bread-and-butter 6f nursery at Fairyhouse, he split rivals now rated 100 and 101. He’s since been gelded and his new yard is in fine form. 

Finalise is among those favourably drawn here (she starts with a 0.53 length advantage from stall 4) and her second over course and distance on her final start last season needs a big upgrade as the long strider (hit a maximum of 8.24 metres that day) was keen to post and exuberant when the stalls opened, setting overly fast fractions. 

The RaceiQ data tells us her first seven furlongs were all in the red zone – being either “fast” or “very “fast” – and she eventually paid the price. 

She did well to hang in there with the other three in the first four that day all held up. 

Finalise had previously won by 12 lengths at Kempton and is only 2lb higher than at Goodwood, where she had been making her handicap bow. A couple of her siblings, also trained by William Haggas, have been rated three-figure performers. 

Win strike-rate: 66.66%. Top Speed: 41.24mph (at The Curragh last year)

FSP in Mooresbridge: 110.82%.

Minnie Hauk is hard to oppose in the Tattersalls Gold Cup after her comeback win in a steadily run Mooresbridge Stakes at The Curragh this month.

She showed her customary speed at the finish, zipping through the final two furlongs in 22.73 seconds. That was at least half a second quicker than anything else in the field.

Last year, she won four different Oaks before being beaten a head by Daryz in the Arc. The Frankel filly stays a mile and a half well but her data tells us she has stacks of speed. She can win at the main expense of Almaqam. 

Top Speed: 42.86mph (at The Curragh last year).

Final 3f in 1000G: 33.56sec (best by 0.51sec). 0-20mph: fastest three times 

True Love blossomed as a two-year-old and can achieve a Classic double after her stunning victory in the 1000 Guineas. 

She was only 12th with three furlongs left to run at Newmarket but was quickest in each of them to win with authority. The daughter of No Nay Never was the only runner to exceed 41mph, with her rapid 10.93 second sixth furlong best best of the bunch. 

Her stablemate, Precise, was seventh in the Guineas after an interrupted preparation. Her RaceiQ numbers as a juvenile all add up and she rates the main threat.