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The Data Detective: a top trio for York on Thursday
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Wed 19 Aug 2026
Andy Stephens struck with 13-2 and 9-4 winners on Wednesday and is seeking to keep up the good work on day two of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York.
✅ 2.25 YORK: INNICHEN
Draw advantage: 0.76 lengths
Finishing Speed Percentage form: 2212
Trainer/Jockey strike-rate: 25% (18 wins from 72)
Innichen looks favourably drawn and is the each-way alternative to Sun Goddess in the Harry’s Half A Million.
He finished strongest to win at Nottingham on his penultimate start and was again putting in a good late work when third at Goodwood last time after being only 18th fastest to 20mph, giving the winner a crucial four-length head start.
Innichen has got a favourable draw in stall three - RaceiQ assess it as a 0.76 length advantage - and he has an official rating of 85. The past seven winners to have handicap marks beforehand have been on marks of 87, 92, 93, 84, 77 and 87.
Jack Channon and Tom Marquand are potent when teaming up. If you'd blindly put £1 on them when they got together, you would be nearly £20 in profit.
Sun Goddess stands out with her rating of 114, although she does have to concede Innichen weight and her high draw could be awkward (minus 0.43 length advantage). Devious Company had a rating of 107 when finding one too good in the 2020 renewal.
✅ 3.00 YORK: CENTIGRADE
Newbury Time Index: 8.4 (meeting average 5.6)
Rossa Ryan A/E at York: 1.41
Ralph Beckett A/E at York: 1.31
The lightly raced Centigrade has clearly not been easy to train but arrives here unexposed and an opening handicapo mark of 102 may underestimate him.
Since being touched off by Jonquil (now rated 111) on his debut at Sandown, he’s won in emphatic style at Newbury and Southwell, chalking up some swift sectionals and big RaceiQ numbers. At the former track, he thumped Further (rated 106).
In addition, Rossa Ryan and Ralph Beckett’s Actual versus Expected metrics both read well.
✅ 3.35 YORK: KALPANA
Latest 0-20mph: 2.14sec
King George Time Index: 7.9 (meeting average 4.4)
Newbury Time Index: 9.9 (meeting average 5.18)
Kalpana is one of the best mares in the world and can chalk up her fourth Group 1 triumph, having won twice on Champions Day before a career best to land a deep King George last time. It's a surprise to see her odds against.
She’s got great speed and been better than ever this summer, with her bulging Time Index scores at Newbury (9.9 when the meeting average was 5.8) and Ascot (7.9 when the meeting average was 4.4) cementing her claims here.
I wouldn't worry that only two older mares have won this race in the past decade, from 36 runners, as most have not been fancied. Enable and Alpinista have put tounger rivals in their place.
Emphatic Irish Oaks winner Johanna Walsh is the obvious threat.
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