The Betfred Oaks: what the RaceiQ data tells us

The Epsom Downs provide a unique challenge for horse and rider, but the added threat of rain makes the puzzle even more interesting to piece together.

One clear conclusion from the RaceiQ data is that

Desert Flower

will prove a very difficult horse to beat in the Betfred (4.00) on Friday.

A mile and a half at Epsom requires speed, stamina and class, and Desert Flower has all three attributes.

To begin with, let’s look at the versatility she has shown in her ability to win with different run styles by using the "Top Speed" recorded in each of her races. Over seven furlongs in her first two starts, she recorded the second quickest and then the quickest Top Speed of the field. 

The 41.75 mph she reached at Newmarket in the penultimate furlong last August, was nearly 1mph quicker than any horse in the race. It is also faster than any other horse in this race has recorded in our database.

Conversely, when she won the 1000 Guineas, her Top Speed of 39.43 mph was the slowest in the field, but William Buick made sure she clocked perfectly even fractions to gallop her rivals into the ground and outstay them in the closing stages.

She has also recorded the largest average stride length in three of her five races, highlighting how efficiently she travels.

That strongly suggests to me that this longer trip should be perfectly within her capabilities, regardless of the ground conditions.