The 2025 Cheltenham Festival: four ante-post fancies

The dust is beginning to settle on the Festival and those considering an ante-post punt on events 12 months from now will point to Ballyburn, Slade Steel and Fact To File demonstrating just how risky it can be.

In the build-up to this year’s meeting, Ballyburn was a short-priced favourite for the Supreme; Slade Steel headed the ante-post market for the Gallagher; and Fact To File was a skinny price for the Turners. The trio all won at the meeting – but in different races!

The message is clear. You’ve got to identify the horses with the ability to win at the meeting. And then work out exactly what race they will shine in.

For that reason, I’d avoid getting involved in all the novice hurdles and novice chases this far in advance, however tempting it might be to predict where the likes of Jasmin De Vaux (Gallagher?) and Sir Gino (Arkle?) might turn up. There are just too many permutations and there's nothing worse than being on one at a juicy price - only to see it bolt up in another contest.  

I’ve picked out four horses who can make a big impact in 2025. And, hopefully, in the races selected.

Race: Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle: Best odds: general 16/1. 

The minor setback that ruled Dysart Enos out of the mares’ novices’ hurdle last week was a cruel blow to Fergal O’Brien, not least because he had minded her all season (avoiding graded races to prevent her picking up a penalty) and had complete faith that she could provide him and his team with a first success at the meeting.

That disappointment will have been multiplied after Golden Ace upstaged Brighterdaysahead and Jade De Grugy. After all, Dysart Enos had thumped Golden Ace easing up by nine lengths in a Grade Two bumper at Aintree last spring. It doesn’t take a genius to calculate that Dysart Enos, emphatic winner of each of her three runs over hurdles, including at Cheltenham, would have been firmly in the mix but for her untimely issue.

Next year’s Mares’ Hurdle will surely be on her agenda. She’s got the ability, potential and staying power to be a big player in it. In addition, this year’s easy winner, Lossiemouth, is heading for the Champion Hurdle, while the runner-up, Telmesomethinggirl, is apparently off to the paddocks. The door is open for new faces to emerge.

Perhaps lightning will strike twice. Honeysuckle was a leading fancy for the 2019 mares’ novice hurdle but missed out because of a late setback. She went on to win the Mares’ Hurdle the following year before landing two editions of the Champion Hurdle and then a second Mares Hurdle for good measure. I’d imagine Fergal and his team would settle for that. 

Race: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. Best odds: William Hill offer 7/2. 

Those who put the Willie Mullins Wednesday hotpots in a treble were on good terms with themselves after Ballyburn and Fact To File had sauntered to victory. It left the biggest banker of them all, El Fabiolo, to finish the job off, but then came his bad blunder at the fifth and Paul Townend swiftly throwing in the towel.

The seven-year-old’s first defeat over fences wasn’t a complete shock, given that he had made at least one error in his previous six wins over the larger obstacles. He had always found a leg or just bulldozered on, but this time there was no reprieve.

El Fabiolo isn’t the first outstanding two-mile chaser to push the boundaries, and he won’t be the last. It kind of goes with the territory. The bottom line is that this 175-rated performer remains the best around in this division and the 7/2 on offer – don’t forget he went off at 2/9 last week – is difficult to fathom.

The former champ, Energumene, will have it all to prove when/if he makes his belated return from injury next season (rising 11 years of age), while another of his stablemates, Gaelic Warrior, would not be certain to take this path. He was imperious in the Arkle but it was an ordinary renewal and Willie Mullins was swift to suggest the Ryanair Chase would also be a possibility in 2025. There's no such uncertainty with El Fabiolo.

Race: Ryanair Chase: Best odds: a general 25/1 

Venetia Williams’s stable flagbearer ran a cracker to be fourth behind Galopin Des Champs, Gerri Colombe and Corach Rambler in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last Friday. 

It briefly looked like the former Brown Advisory winner might hit the jackpot when he hit the front going well four from home but he palpably didn’t get the trip with the petrol gauge flickering on zero approaching the final fence. He ended up being beaten about 15 lengths. 

His connections may well fancy another tilt at racing’s biggest prize next year, perhaps arguing conditions cannot be so testing 12 months from now. But he’d still likely have the three who finished in front of him standing in his way, not to mention Fastorslow and new faces such as Fact To File to overcome.

L’Homme Presse is not short of speed and a better long-term target is the Ryanair Chase, for which he’s an insulting 25/1 (William Hill go only 10/1). He would have surely gone close in this year’s edition, given he’d beaten Protektorat, who took the spoils, with something to spare over a similar trip on his belated return at Lingfield in January. 

The Betfair Chase and King George VI Chase, over a bare 3m, would be good targets for the nine-year-old in the first half of next season. Then, if he were mine, I’d be dropping back in distance to give him the best possible chance of a second triumph at the meeting. 

Race: Paddy Power Mares’ Chase. Best odds: a general 7/1. 

The addition of the Mares’ Chase has got under the skin of a few, but JP McManus is clearly a big fan of the race.

His Elimay finished runner-up in the first edition in 2021 before going one better for him in 2022. Impervious struck for him in 2023 and then, last week, he had the one-two with Limerick Lace and Dinoblue fighting out the finish.

I landed on Limerick Lace but by the finish thought I’d been a little fortunate to collect. She had a perfect position throughout and kicked on at just the right time, whereas Dinoblue, who was conceding 5lb to her, sat out the back and had to make ground in the heat of battle. Those hold-up tactics were perhaps to be expected given her stamina wasn’t a certain, especially in the prevailing conditions.

As it transpired, Dinoblue got every yard and did her utmost to claw back Limerick Lace but ended up going down by three quarters of a length.

I’d fancy her to turn the tables if they meet again a year from now, especially on level terms on better ground, and she will set a high standard for other new faces to aim at. She must have bright prospects of doing an Elimay – going one better a year after finishing second.