The 2024 William Hill Lincoln: a 50/1 fancy for the big race

A maximum field of 22 for the William Hill on Saturday features the past two winners in Johan and Migration.

Both have shown they can go well fresh and cope with soft ground but the bad news for those banking on either staging a repeat is that there has been only one dual winner of the race (Babur in 1957 and 1958) in the past 116 years. It’s a devilishly hard race to win once, let alone twice. 

Neither make my shortlist, and neither does Awaal, the favourite. He will appeal to plenty running off the same mark as when runner-up 12 months ago, when he tanked through the race, but he proved expensive to follow afterwards and a first-time tongue-tie, plus lowish draw, are also niggles. At the prices, I’m happy to give him a swerve. 

When considering what happened last year, remember that underfoot conditions were bottomless, suiting proven mudlarks like Migration and Awaal. The winning time was one of the slowest in the race’s history, certainly the most pedestrian going back to at least 1986. 

The ground at Town Moor is described as soft, heavy in places, but dry weather is forecast for the next 48 hours (there’s even some sunshine predicted) and so I’d imagine the heavy bits, at the very least, will disappear.

Where do you want to be drawn? That’s never easy to predict in advance, with a scattered pattern over the years. Winners have jumped from just about everywhere but the stats, on soft ground or worse, do lean towards those who have a double-figure draw perhaps being at an advantage. 

I'd imagine Aidan Keeley will stick somewhere down the middle on front-running Hieronymous (stall 8). Liberty Lane (20), The Gatekeeper (17), Blues Emperor (10), Vetiver (9) and Thunder Ball (7) also usually race prominently, so I can’t see a middle to high draw proving a disadvantage. Those in low berths, though, are likely to need their wits about them. 

Here’s five horses who fit the bill. 

Trainer: Gary Moore. Draw: 19. Best odds: 50/1. 

Eight winners of the Lincoln this century have been 20/1 or bigger, with numerous big-priced runners making the frame in recent years – including Hortzadar (third at 66/1 in 2021) and Battle Of Marathon (third at 50/1 in 2016). Alpha Crucis is among the big outsiders this time after sneaking into the race but could well raise an eyebrow or two. 

The Gary Moore-trained four-year-old remains unexposed (only eight runs) and he progressed well last term, winning mile handicaps in the mud at Windsor and Goodwood, plus looking unlucky not to win at Epsom on another occasion. He signed off with a dull effort at Newmarket in November, off the mark he runs off on Saturday, but the Australia gelding wasn’t seen to best advantage on that occasion and, in any case, might have had enough for the year. 

He won after breaks of 171 days and 130 days last year, so he can clearly go well fresh (absent 140 days this time) and I like the fact Moore has summoned capable 7lb claimer Anna Gibson, who is attached to the yard, as it means Alpha Crucis will have a featherweight 7st 9lb to shoulder on the likely tacky going. That’s the lowest weight that Gibson has ridden at in the past 12 months but sacrifices between now and race time may prove well worth it. Apprentice riders have landed three of the past ten editions. 

Trainer: Karl Burke. Draw: 20. Best odds: 4/1. 

Karl Burke has his team well forward (10 winners and 9 seconds from 36 runners since the start of last month) and it’s not difficult to envisage a bold display from Liberty Lane. He impressed when winning his sole start as a two-year-old, in the mud over a mile at Nottingham, and beat all bar subsequent Royal Ascot winner Waipiro on his return at Newmarket last year, when trying to concede 7lb. 

His subsequent efforts included a good fourth at Newmarket in July and a battling defeat of Sonny Liston (an excellent yardstick) at in September. A straight mile and softish/soft ground clearly suit him well and, perhaps most significant, he’s been gelded since last season. He appeals as the type to improve plenty for the operation, given he’s had a tendency to be too exuberant for his own good in the past.  

Trainer: Julie Camacho. Draw: 14. Best odds: 10/1. 

This five-year-old chestnut was sold for 50,000gns at the Autumn Sales and has been switched from the yard of William Haggas to Julie Camacho. I don’t envy any trainer trying to improve horses who were previously in the care of Haggas, but Camacho has a proven record with cast-offs from other yards and Lattam would not be the first to be stimulated by the switch from Newmarket to North Yorkshire. 

Steve Brown, Julie's assistant and husband, said on Thursday: “He’s had a straightforward preparation. He’s well-handicapped and it looked the most logical place to start. He won the Irish equivalent last year and we’re looking forward to it.”

Lattam's record fresh is well worth a second look – form figures of 111 after a break of 68 days or more – and he performed wonders to land the Irish Lincoln at this time last year, having been held up in rear and finding trouble in running. He finished runner-up to Jimi Hendrix in the Spring Mile next time before resuming winning ways at Newcastle, but his final four runs of the year, including when tried in headgear, were a little subdued. In new surroundings, fresh, at home on testing ground and only 1lb higher than when last successful, plenty of the jigsaw pieces fit. 

Trainer: Johnny Murtagh. Draw: 10. Best odds: 14/1. 

Johnny Murtagh rode successive Lincoln winners in 2010 and 2011 (Penitent and Sweet Lightning) and is now targeting the race as a trainer, with Blues Emperor looking to have plenty of the attributes required to give Ireland their first success in the race since Roving Minstrel struck at 33/1 in 1995.

It’s interesting that he resisted running his five-year-old in the Irish Lincolnshire at The Curragh on Monday, especially given the gelding’s record at that track. Blues Emperor was game when landing an 18-runner handicap there in July, beating Chazzesmee (now 3lb worse off) by a length, and again stuck to his task resolutely when beaten a neck there in the Irish Cambridgeshire in late August. His trainer has described him as “a bonny little horse”. 

He's low mileage for his age, has shown he can go well fresh and Murtagh must believe he still has a few pounds up his sleeve. Ten of his 18 runners in Britain last year either won or finished in the first four. 

Trainer: Fozzy Stack. Draw: 3. Best odds: 11/2. 

Last, but not least, Chazzesmee. Fozzy Stack’s six-year-old has been a slow-burner, not helped by him needing a year on the sidelines afrter fracturing a pelvis in the autumn of 2021. 

In the past year or so, he’s gone from strength-to-strength and he justified heavy support when landing the Irish version of the Lincoln in decisive style at The Curragh on Monday. I’m not sure those who followed the cash had many anxious moments, as he moved through the race with purpose and quickly put his stamp on proceedings. That was his third win from his past four starts, with his defeat at the hands of Blues Emperor last summer probably needing marking up as he was doing all his best work at the finish. 

A 5lb penalty for his win at the start of the week looks manageable but the obvious stumbling block is that he’s had so little time to catch his breath, especially given he’s usually had plenty of time between his races. On balance, though, it would be dangerous to discount him pulling off an unusual double.