Tom Thurgood previews the Group Three highlight from the July Course at this weekend, with comments on every runner and a suggested best bet. See what happens live on Racing TV!
Seven fillies go forward for the £60,000
at Newmarket on Saturday - won by subsequent Classic winner
last term - and this year's edition will have some novelty value as Aidan O'Brien will be represented in the race for the very first time.
- a debut winner last time and by Frankel out of Sprint Cup winner Quiet Reflection - also had an entry in calmer waters at the
on Saturday but she jumps straight up to Group Three company with Sean Levey booked for the ride. She certainly looks up to this level at the very least and rates an exciting prospect.
Here's our guide to the seven declared for the race and a suggested pick.
ANGELICA BAY
Trainer: Ollie Sangster Odds: 40-1
Trainer Ollie Sangster also had Flight engaged in this but the yard now solely sends out Angelica Bay
By No Nay Never out of a Listed-winning Kheleyf mare, things haven’t panned out ideally in small-ish fields in both runs so far, firstly when coming home almost solo down the near-side at Newmarket and then last time when beating the one in front close home at
before being nabbed by the Richard Fahey-trained
. She's a nice type with more to come and it could be noteworthy that she runs here rather than stablemate Flight, who has shown a bit more so far, but she lacks the form of most of these at this stage and maidens are one from 20 (two more placed) in this race since 2000.
DREAM VOYAGE
Trainer: Hugo Palmer Odds: 18-1
She seemed to lose her position through a lack of tactical speed on debut at Newmarket but she finished well and in a manner that suggested she would stay seven furlongs and a mile, so tackling this furthest trip so far should bring about improvement. She had to work hard enough to justify heavy odds-on quotes at
last time, even if she looked a bit green in front, but she wants more of a test. She has outside place claims if this is a strong test at the distance, though a small-enough field on quick ground and no clear strong pace on offer raises concerns.
LAKE VICTORIA
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien Odds: 11-8
Did well to win on debut from the widest draw of 14 at the
on debut last time and arguably had to be sent for home earlier than ideal, looking a bit green in front and just repelling the late thrust of
at the line. That filly looked very good next time and is viewed as a potential Classic prospect by Ger Lyons and Juddmonte, while Lake Victoria appeals as a potentially above-average improver for a yard with an excellent crop of juvenile fillies this season (42 per cent, 1.45 A/E).
MOUNTAIN BREEZE
Trainer: Charlie Appleby Odds: 7-4
She has a decent bit of experience in the bank now with four runs and, stepping up to seven furlongs for the first time, has scope for decent improvement. She ran perfectly well at Royal Ascot and wasn’t optimally placed two furlongs from home in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes here last time at a track which particularly favours prominent racers, but she stuck on well and finished a length quicker than the winner in the final two furlongs. That finishing effort in a well-run race, allied to her pedigree – she’s notably a half-sister to Pinatubo (best effort at 7f) but by Lope De Vega out of a Dalakhani mare – suggests stepping up to seven furlongs for the first time will unlock more and I quite like her profile.
FLAMING STONE
Trainer: Andrew Balding Odds: 13-2
Her reputation arguably centres on a visually striking victory at Newbury second-time out, and while she did extend away quite nicely late on it was a bit of a silly small-field affair in which they sprinted late on (finishing speed percentage of 109 per cent) and I think that set-up is the one of her three so far which has masked her immaturity best. She’s since followed that up with a decent effort in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown Park last time yet, while a juvenile filly, she obviously doesn’t look the finished article yet. She could be the pace angle here, but she is very unlikely to get the solo she did at Newbury and her keen-going tendencies are a bit of a concern.
LIBERALISED
Trainer: Karl Burke Odds: 14-1
Connections won this with last year
Well-regarded by a team enjoying a fine season and especially with their juveniles, she wasn’t beaten that far at the line in the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes here last time despite looking at full capacity at half way in the face of some brisk sectionals (field hit 43mph) and she stuck on quite well from her inside draw away from the thrust of the action. Her final-furlong split was the third-fastest in the field and her final two furlongs overall didn’t compare too badly overall despite only beating three home.
She was weak in the market at Newmarket – drifting from 16/1 to an SP of 28/1 – but things could be different here down in grade, especially if she races more forwardly like at
on debut. The same connections took this race with Fallen Angel last year.
ELSIE’S RUAN
Trainer: Gemma Tutty Odds: 14-1
Gemma Tutty has an exciting prospect in She looked very impressive on debut at York, coming from miles back to win and had to tack all the way to the stands-side as well for a clear run and thus underplaying her superiority on the sectional times. The well-fancied runner-up fought back near the finish but Elsie’s Ruan was three lengths quicker in the final three furlongs. The Ulysses filly is inexperienced and this is likely to pan out differently in a smaller field, while the stable – having a good season – has had several similar types run well at decent prices on juvenile debut this season. The trainer is concerned about the seven furlongs being something of a minimum even at this stage, and this looks more likely to be falsely-run seven furlongs on paper at this stage.
Big-race verdict
Lake Victoria will likely head the market as the first Aidan O'Brien runner to contest this race and she looked to have plenty of boot on debut and rates as a potential big improver fopr a team with a vaunted squad of juvenile fillies this term. She could feasibly kick these out of the way, but she's yet to run on this track and will travel away for the first time in her career and the instinct is not to take too short odds about her all things considered. Indeed, pricing up this race to a 100 per cent book I struggled to make her shorter than 7-4.
Mountain Breeze started earlier and has been allowed to build up a more iubstantive body of work so far, but her experience and know-how in higher-level races - as well as July Course experience - could be potentially decisive. I would like to be with her at 9/4 but that looks more unlikely than not.
The one who looks overpriced to my mind is LIBERALISED. Well regarded and representing last year's winning connections, she's not a Fallen Angel but shaped better than the result suggested in the Duchess Of Cambridge despite market weakness and this looks more of her set-up. Down in grade, it's feasible that the latest run could have been a sighter to this assignment and she's unlikely to be as far back last time or face such stern early speed. She's been put in at 14/1 the early reformed market and I wouldn't want to lay any bigger than 15/2.
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