Sunday Conundrum: Is Spillane's Tower too good to be true at 15-8?

Do we back handicap “blot” Spillane’s Tower when he makes his return at Naas on Sunday, or do we let him slide or even take him on? It’s a conundrum that adds spice to an intriguing card, especially with bookmakers dangling a carrot by offering 15-8.

This high-class chaser has a rating of 163 over fences and yet can take part in the 2m 4f SIS Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle off a rating of 130.

There’s little question he could be thrown in, with his proven stamina likely to be brought into play, too, as a strong pace looks on the cards.

But instances like this are rarely that straightforward. Top-class chasers are not always top-class hurdlers, or even average ones. And vice versa. Horses that look “handicap good things” can be an illusion.

There's a good reason why horses have different ratings for the different disciplines. Fences can completely transform some horses, but in other instances completely confound them.

Triple Grand National winner Red Rum famously began his career in a seller on the Flat, while a vivid instance of the latter was galloping machine Big Buck’s trying to bring fences home with him as souvenirs.

When he unseated his rider at the final fence in the 2008 Hennessy Gold Cup, his exasperated connections threw in the towel and switched him back to hurdling. He would go on to win his next 18 races over the smaller obstacles, make history by landing four consecutive renewals of the Stayers’ Hurdle.

Big Buck’s was rated 174 over hurdles at his peak, whereas he ran off 153 in the Hennessy. He will no doubt be a source of inspiration for Ballyburn over the months ahead.

Nobody is suggesting that Spillane’s Tower is the next Big Buck’s. Indeed, it is likely that his spin on Sunday is something of a one-off.

He’s a superb jumper – his RaceiQ Jump Index rating is a lofty 8.5 out of 10 – and connections declared him for the Grade One BetVictor Champion Chase at Down Royal last weekend but were nervous about ground conditions and scratched him on the morning of the race.

The Betfair Chase on November 22 could be on his agenda, but it seems the team behind him are wary about asking him to tackle that contest without some sort of prep.

Either that, or they want to ensure he is not too gassy at Haydock, as he ran only three times last term and has been absent since chasing home Galopin Des Champs in the Punchestown Gold Cup in April. Or maybe they want him to win a race with his head in his chest to tee him up for tougher assignments.

The race at Naas is worth €26,550 to the winner, so it is not sniffed at. It’s the kind of prize that JP McManus, his owner, likes to hoover up and he has only one other runner in the race, In Excelsis Deo, who like Spillane’s Tower is also switching back to hurdles. However, he again ran poorly at Limerick last month and is only 2lb well-in relative to his chase mark.

Let’s get back to basics and focus on how Spillane’s Tower can race off a rating of 130.

He ran five times over hurdles between April 2022 and April 2023. It was a year’s education before being unleashed over fences.

Two initial eye-catching runs over 2m were a precursor to him winning a 23-runner maiden hurdle over 2m3f at Naas in February 2023. Yes, Naas, you read that right, where he runs on Sunday. It's a small detail we should not ignore.

He won in decisive fashion at the main expense of Franciscan Rock, a horse who is now rated 145 over hurdles (did hit 147) and ended up running in Grade One company at the end of last season.

Spillane’s Tower was then switched to handicap company at Cork, running off 126, but had the misfortune to clip the heels of a rival and depart at the first. That’s the thing about Jump racing; there are banana skins everywhere.

Nineteen days later, he ran in a 2m novice race at the Punchestown Festival and chased home Monbeg Park (rated 137 at the time), pulling 11 lengths clear of the third home, Uncle Phil, now rated 139 over hurdles.

Any reading of Spillane’s Tower hurdling form suggests that a mark of 130 is lenient, to say the least, especially when you consider that he has only properly run just once beyond 2m in this sphere, when scoring at Naas. The handicapper cannot take that into account.

And that’s without even considering the progress he has made since being switched to chasing. He won back-to-back Grade One races at the end of his novice campaign and began last term by splitting Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs in the John Durkan Memorial Chase, with Fastorslow and Inothewayurthinkin among the support cast. That form has a golden glow.

How the seven-year-old travels in the market will be interesting, as we cannot ignore the fact that Jimmy Mangan, his trainer, has not had a winner since January 17. I would not get too hung up on that because he only has a small team. He's had only 26 runners in the interim and none since July.

Late betting “clues” can be misleading. The Irish Grand National winner, Haiti Coleurs, was a marked drifter near the off when running over hurdles at Newbury on Thursday, when 7lb well-in relative to his chase mark, but those who kept the faith were well rewarded.

As ever, it all comes down to price. At 15-8, are we looking at one of the bets of the season? Maybe.