Stats and trends for day three of the Cheltenham Festival

Willie Mullins was responsible for the first five winners of this race – all of them French-breds who started their careers in France. He’s lost his grip in the past four years but again has leading contenders, including Karoline Banbou, who fits the profile of his previous winners. The first nine winners have all been aged five or six, with six of them having previously won or been placed in a Graded race. 

The Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase has replaced the Grade One Turners Novices’ Chase. Willie Mullins had lost the knack of winning the now defunct race. He scooped four of the first six renewals but in the last seven years of its existence he was out of luck with his 17 runners finishing 4P60U235836F34679 despite a number being leading fancies. So perhaps it is good news for Mullins that he no longer has to worry about how to crack the race. Or is it? The champion trainer, with a record 108 Festival winners in the bag, has had 49 runners in handicap chases at the Festival and has still yet to win one. Cheltenham have added two more this year, just so the master handler has more opportunities to get that monkey off his back. 

A top-four finish in one of the qualifiers has been required to be eligible in the past couple of years, whereas it had been a top-six finish before that. None of the past ten winners have won a qualifier. Or even finished second in one. The last horse to win one and then land the Final was Fingal Bay, back in 2014. None of the past seven winners had won in the previous eight months, so don’t worry if your fancy is enduring a lean spell (you could even view it as a positive). The last to buck the trend was Presenting Percy in 2017, but he needed to as otherwise his rating would have been too low to make the cut.  Win Some Lose Some and Will The Wise are prominent in the ante-post betting this time but both have won qualifiers. 

Sixteen of the 20 Ryanair Chase winners have boasted at least one previous win at Cheltenham. The four exceptions have been Riverside Theatre, Balko Des Flo, Min and Allaho, but they all had at least some experience of the track. Il Est Francais has never run at Cheltenham and, as such, the French raider will break new ground if successful. Nicky Henderson, the trainer of 2012 hero Riverside Theatre has been out of luck with his past 11 runners. They’ve finished 43428050PP2, with two of those runners trailing home last. 

Teahupoo is a hot favourite to retain the crown he won last year. He would become the eighth multiple winner after Silver Bay (1912-13), Crimson Embers (1982 and 1986), Galmoy (1987-88), Baracouda (200203), Inglis Drever (2005, 2007-08), Big Buck’s (2009-2012) and Flooring Porter (2021-22). 

Shakem Up’arry (143) became the eleventh successive winner to be rated in the 140s when taking the spoils last season. Six of those have been novices or second-season chasers but the past three victors have all been ten or over, so age is no barrier. Venetia Williams has landed the race three times since 2007 with runners chalked up at 12-1, 33-1 and 50-1. She did not have  a runner between 2019 and 2022 but Frero Banbou has represented her for the past two years. Her runners  this time are Gemirande, quoted about 12-1, and Demnat, a 50-1 chance.

Just four winners since 1992 have been aged ten or older. Increasingly, this is a race for younger legs with seven of the past 12 renewals won by horses aged no older than seven. Only two of the past 20 winners won on their most recent start, while eight of the past 14 winners have worn some form of headgear. The race is restricted to horses rated no higher than 145. Four of the last six victors have been rated 141 or higher, so don’t dismiss those up near the top of the weights.