Sky Bet Ebor: three for the shortlist

With a first prize of £300,000, the Sky Bet Ebor is Europe's most valuable Flat handicap and is always a hugely competitive affair.

This year's renewal looks no different, with just four of the 47 horses still in contention at the five-day stage quoted at single-figure odds ahead of Thursday's declarations, where the field size will be cut to a maximum of 22.

Irish trainers have won four of the past six runnings of the Ebor, with Ger Lyons, Johnny Murtagh, Willie Mullins and Henry de Bromhead all saddling a winner each since 2019.

Although last year's race was won by the 7-2 favourite Magical Zoe, she  became just the third winning favourite since the turn of the century.

In fact, over the past 20 years, there has been one 100-1 winner, one 33-1 winner and three 25-1 winners, plus eight other winners return at double-figure odds.

The race has changed in nature over the years and has become a high-class compressed handicap, with often little between top and bottom; only six winners have carried more than 9st 4lb since Sea Pigeon defied 10st in 1979 under Jonjo O'Neill, but they have all came since 2018.

Two interesting statistics are that all but one of the past 17 winners have been aged between four and six, and that all but three of the past 19 winners have came from a double-figure draw - something which, of course, is impossible to factor into calculations at this stage, and last year's winner bucked that trend coming from stall one.

Below are three names I have on my shortlist for the race this year.

Trainer: Henry de Bromhead. Official Rating: 98.  Best odds: 16-1.

This six-year-old defied any concerns about fast ground with a game success in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting and looks tailor-made for a race of this nature.

He would be stepping back in trip from 2m4f if he were to take his chance on Saturday for last year's winning trainer, but that would not concern me.

He started life over 6f and 7f for Clive Cox and has plenty of speed in his pedigree, and similarly to at Ascot, did not shirk a battle when winning the 1m4f Cork Derby (Premier Handicap) back in May.

Since stepping back onto the Flat after going hurdling, his form figures read 22111 and he is only 3lb higher than his win in June when last seen.

His new mark looks even more lenient now that the fourth-placed finisher Leinster hacked up to win the Irish St Leger Trial by over four lengths on Saturday.

Even when jumping, he has shown a consistent liking for big fields and, whilst he still looks to be on the improve, he is also a battle-hardened horse that ticks plenty of boxes for a race like the Ebor.

Trainer: Willie Mullins.  Official Rating: 104.  Best odds: 8-1.

I hope those at Derrinstown Stud are reading this column, because I also like the chances of another son of Awtaad in this year's race in the shape of Ethical Diamond.

Willie Mullins's charge, who also won at Royal Ascot, is shorter in the market than Henry de Bromhead's and 6lb higher in the handicap, but I was hugely taken by the manner of his win in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes.

He is another that has been kept fresh, presumably with this race in mind, ever since, and like Ascending, has shown a liking for fast ground and a big field.

The pace was not particularly strong when he won at Royal Ascot (his first run on the Flat in 12 months), so it was impressive how he came from a fair way back to win comfortably and stayed the 1m4f strongly despite being keen early.

There is a chance a strongly-run Ebor could see him to better effect and the booking of William Buick is another positive.

Trainer: Ian Williams. Official Rating: 98. Best odds: 25-1.

He has never won the Ebor, but Ian Williams can certainly ready one for a big handicap such as this, and he currently has four left in the race. 

The one that looks most solid of the quartet to me, despite not being the shortest price, is Oneforthegutter, who was third in this race 12 months ago and was an impressive winner at the July Festival last time out in a good time.

He was virtually last running downhill towards the dip at Newmarket when last seen and had to be switched out towards the centre of the course, but rattled home to win a shade cosily.

Given little went to plan and the manner of his victory, a 6lb rise seems fair enough and, although he was beaten in this off a lower mark last season, he comes into this year's race in much better form. 

The one nagging concern is his overall strike rate, but to counter that, there is 25-1 on offer about him. We know he likes a big field at York and he has never been in better form.