Seven reasons why Tiger Roll will win the National - and seven why he won't

Will the hot favourite for the Aintree showpiece deliver on Saturday? Andy Stephens considers all the evidence.

Will he, or won’t he? Whichever way you look at it, the Randox Health Grand National at Aintree on Saturday revolves around Tiger Roll.

No favourite has started shorter than 5-1 for the £1 million showpiece since 1975 – Red Rum finished runner-up that year after going off at 7-2 – but that looks a distinct possibility this weekend with Tiger Roll no bigger than 4-1 in the ante-post betting.

If the Gordon Elliott-trained nine-year-old were to win at 6-1 or shorter then he would be the shortest-priced winner since Poethlyn won at 11-4 a century ago.

But does he have what it takes to be a punters' pal and leave the bookmakers on the ropes? Below are seven reasons why he will again be the toast of Aintree . . . . and seven reasons why he won’t.

SEVEN REASON WHY TIGER ROLL IS A GOOD THING:

1. He was a decisive winner last year despite his winning margin being only a head. Having jumped and travelled well throughout, he surged clear after the final fence only to idle in the closing stages. So, unlike the majority of his rivals, we know the trip and big fences are no problem for him. Expect his jockey, Davy Russell, who is 2-2 when riding him in Britain, to hang on to him a little longer this time.

Watch a full replay of last year's Grand National. Tiger Roll is among those in the maroon and white colours.

2. Much has been made of the fact that there has not been a back-to-back winner since Red Rum in the mid 1970s but Hedgehunter, Comply Or Die and Don’t Push It have gone close to achieving the feat in recent years and many of the winners in the interim were fairly old and past their best 12 months later. By contrast, Tiger Roll is only nine – when most steeplechasers are in their prime.

3. He is 8lb well in. The Grand National weights were framed in mid-February and don’t budge with runners not being penalised for any subsequent wins or good runs. Tiger Roll has since bolted up in a hurdle race and in the Cross-Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. As a consequence his handicap rating of 159 has shot up to 167 and the handicapper has said that even his revised mark may underestimate him

4. His performance at Cheltenham last time suggests he has never been better. He barely came out of second gear and coasted to a 22-length success over Josies Orders and Urgent De Gregaine. His closest pursuers are established as cross-country specialists and have got closer to Tiger Roll in the past. But he was in a different league to them last month and they simply could not live with him. Some believe he would have been a leading player in the Gold Cup had he instead run in that race.

5. That was Tiger Roll’s fourth triumph at the Cheltenham Festival. Such a haul speaks volumes for his class and fierce competitiveness. His ability to handle any ground is another big tick in his box. He seems impervious to underfoot conditions, winning on going ranging from good to firm to heavy.

6. Nimble and clearly a quick thinker, he has run in 33 races over obstacles and never fallen. He did unseat his rider once, almost three years ago, but on that occasion there were mitigating circumstances as he was hampered by a rival.

7. His owners, Gigginstown House Stud, have seven runners overall - and it would have been nine had they not sold two more entries on Thursday. Most are big outsiders. Better fancied horses, such as Bai Des Iles, have not made th cut.

SEVEN REASON WHY TIGER ROLL WILL BE TAMED:

1. History is against him. Red Rum was the last back-to-back winner of the Grand National in 1973-74. He added a third success in 1977 but no horse has since won the race more than once – and plenty of good ones have tried. The only other back-to-back winner in the past century has been Reynoldstown, who conquered all in 1935-36.

2. Tiger Roll is officially 8lb well in at the weights but do not lose sight of the fact that he has to operate off a rating that is 9lb higher than 12 months ago, when he prevailed in a photo-finish. His owner once famously described him as a “little rat of a thing” and another negative is that he will have to shoulder 11st 5lb, compared to 10st 13lb last year. Willie Mullins said recently that he believed Tiger Roll was "up against it" because of the extra 6lb on his back. Only two horse, Neptune Collonges and Many Clouds, have carried more weight to victory in the past 40 years.

3. The depth of the opposition. There are plenty of credible alternatives and Tiger Roll is not the only one to have flourished since the weights were framed. Numerous others are also favourably weighted, including Rathvinden, Vintage Clouds, Anibale Fly, Lake View Lad and Joe Farrell.

4. The random nature of the race. Dreams and long-term plots can be extinguished at any moment at Aintree – sometimes through no fault of horse or rider. Serial Irish champion jockey Ruby Walsh, a two-time winner of the race, summed it up his Racing TV column last week when he said: “You can go out there thinking you are riding an absolute good thing and then be behind the wrong one at the first and the race is over for you, but that’s the beauty of it.”

5. Tiger Roll had a month to catch his breath between Cheltenham and Aintree last year – this time he has had a week less to recover from his exploits. And while he appeared to win easily last time, he almost certainly put in a big shift to win by a wide margin. I’ll always remember Criquette Head wondering aloud whether Treve’s failure to win a third Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, when hot favourite, was in part due to her brilliant audition in the Prix Vermeille three weeks beforehand.

6. The ground this year looks like being a lot quicker than it was last year with another relatively dry week forecast. Tiger Roll’s winning time 12 months ago was 9min 40sec. Contrast that to 2015 when Many Clouds won in a time of 8min 56sec and to two years ago when One For Arthur won in 9min 3sec. Aintree will water but, even so, Tiger Roll will find himself in a contest run at a different tempo.

7. He has never previously won three races in succession and, in the past, was inclined to run the odd stinker. Timeform even gave him one of their dreaded squiggles for a time. Can a leopard – or in this case a tiger – ever truly change his spots? In addition, the only outright favourite to oblige in the past 20 years has been Hedgehunter in 2005. Little wonder that bookmakers promote the market leaders in such a way that some punters merely back them for fear of missing the boat or swimming against the tide.

OVERALL VERDICT:

The choice is yours!

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