Dave Nevison's Cheltenham tips for Saturday and Sunday: 40-1 pick and more
Our tipster has three bets at Cheltenham on Saturday and also fancies a 40-1 shot in Sunday's Unibet Greatwood Hurdle - it's all live on Racing TV.
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12.35 Cheltenham: Karnaval Point
Karnaval Point has been very busy since he came over from France and has won twice for David Pipe since the summer. His trajectory stalled for a couple of runs but he certainly got back on track with an excellent third over this course and distance last time out.
This race would always have been a plan since that recent effort and David Pipe might well have secured a 5lbs advantage by booking the very promising Lucas Murphy to ride here.
The tongue strap that seemed to perk up the six-year-old last time out is applied once more and Karnaval Point might be the best placed to see off a strong Irish challenge.
2.20 Cheltenham: Meetmebythesea
Meetmebythesea is my RacingTV.com horse to follow this season and if all goes as I hope this could well be the last handicap Ben Pauling’s six-year-old runs in this season.
I was very impressed by the way he won the Golden Miller at the Festival back in March and even though the handicapper has not spared him raising him 12lbs for a 4 ¾ length margin, the subsequent strength of that form definitely justifies such a hike.
Although he was available at 6-1 last weekend, Meetmebythesea has been the only horse that has been significantly backed and is now half those odds. He would be a very significant win for Harry Cobden and might cement his new partnership with J P McManus.
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2.55 Cheltenham: Ifiwerearichman
Ifiwerearichman looks a very likely improver stepped up to this trip for the first time in a competitive handicap hurdle.
Paul Nolan’s eight-year-old has been running much better than his recent form figures suggest in races over much shorter trips, meeting trouble in running on more than one occasion.
He could probably still have done with a race that looked to have a guaranteed pace but over this distance things are likely to thin out a bit more and his 5lbs claiming jockey will hopefully be able to steer him past weakening rivals up the hill.
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3.10 Cheltenham Sunday: Race To Base (E/W)
This year's Unibet Greatwood Hurdle is far and away the best handicap run so far this season and I doubt whether there will be a more competitive race before the Festival.
Race To Base could be value against runners from much bigger yards, and is chalked up at 40-1, at the time of writing on Friday.
Nick Scholfield’s gelding has just one disappointing run to his name in the EBF final, but, judging by his excellent 33-1 second at Sandown on his next start, the issue had been correctly addressed by a wind operation.
He reappeared this season in a small-field event at Wetherby where he was noted staying on very well after his two main rivals got first run on him. I feel that run could well have put him spot on for this event. The strong pace will suit him very well and I am hopeful he can stay on into a place, at least.
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