Saturday horse racing tips: Dave Nevison’s Lincoln verdict and more

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Sat 1 Apr 2023

Our resident website tipster Dave Nevison, who has tipped winners at 6-1 and 11-2 this week, likes several runners on the Lincoln card at Doncaster and two more on one of the feature Flat cards of the year at Kempton. Enjoy more live action from Bellewstown, Stratford and Chelmsford live on Racing TV.

2.25 Doncaster: Broken Spear and Zozimus

It’s two against the field for me in the Spring Mile and from two completely different angles, though in such a competitive race it’s difficult to be too bullish about finding the winner.

Broken Spear has been around a long time but he is something of a favourite here and invariably runs well over the mile at Doncaster. His turf rating is a little higher than his all-weather mark and it very much looks as though he had a warm-up run on his return last time out at Newcastle. He is only 2lb higher than when running really well over seven furlongs here on his last turf start back in November on ground similar to what he will no doubt encounter here.

Broken Spear was partnered by Billy Loughnane for the first time on that occasion, and when the young rider was claiming 7lb before he went on a roll and became everyone’s tip for the top in 2023. I like to think I got onto Loughnane early and have landed a few good wins with him, and I believe his 5lb is still extremely valuable in a race such as this. I am very surprised that claimers do not have a good record in this tight handicap but have no issue going with Loughnane to right that situation.

The booking of Danny Tudhope takes the eye aboard Zozimus on his first run for The Horsewatchers on stable debut for David O’Meara.

Very few ex-Irish horses run off an exactly similar mark over here and he could be well in. He is 2lb lower than when fourth on the wrong side in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket, finishing first in his smaller group, and he has surprisingly been dropped 2lbs for that very good effort.

Connections will presumably be disappointed he missed the cut in the Lincoln itself as the bottom weight has a rating of 92 and an identical mark to Zozimus. This would make decent compensation.

2.40 Kempton: Stately Home

He might have a few pounds up his sleeve to my eyes.

Stately Home got up to win on his reappearance last time after overcoming a wide draw and not getting a clear run through. The narrow victory meant he only went up 3lb but it looked a comfortable win and he could be ahead of the handicapper.

Stately Home should enjoy a better run through from stall 4 this time and I certainly don’t believe that Joanna Mason is any negative in the saddle.

3.35 Doncaster: Empirestateofmind

I cannot separate the potential Group horses that are fighting for market supremacy so I have decided to go with a very solid option who, if looking at his form figures, will certainly be a placepot banker for many.

Empirestateofmind was third in the Spring Mile last season but he definitely needed that run and won a handicap over a mile at Ripon next time pretty comfortably. He proved unbelievably consistent all season and ended up running his best race in a big-field handicap at York on his final start, showing himself an extremely robust type. He is now better off with Atrium for defeat by just half a length over this course and distance in a big-field handicap on his penultimate start and he is clearly ideally suited by this test.

Young jockey Taylor Fisher claims a useful 5lb and I have a strong feeling trainer John Quinn will have Empirestateofmind sharper for this bigger prize this year. He might surprise a few more lightly-raced types.

5.00 Kempton: Chantico

This could be the proverbial handicap ‘good thing’ on the day, but Chantico will be priced accordingly and I will be happy with odds against.

He wasn’t favourite last time in a minor event but he was confidently ridden to make all at Lingfield, beating his market rival comfortably. Roger Varian places his young horses well in handicaps and Chantico looks another following a well-trodden path.

Chantico looks and races like he will stay further than this and he will certainly have no problem with this extra furlong. He looks poised to land short odds.

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