Newmarket’s July Cup takes centre stage on Saturday, but there is action up and down the country, and it’s a couple of five-furlong sprinters that the data is highlighting to me.
He may be a five-year-old but J M Jungle (2.35) would not be the first sprinter to only really find his peak at a relatively late stage of his career.
Having knocked about in Class 2 handicaps for the majority of his career, his form since returning from his winter break in April has stepped up to a completely different standard.
He is yet to finish out of the frame this season and his first two defeats of the campaign came at the hands of American Affair, who went on to land the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot.
It’s not just his form that highlights his chances, the data is pretty positive as well. York is a short, fast track, so there is a big emphasis on breaking well from the stalls, going fast and maintaining that speed to the line.
He will be fast from the gates, given that he has been one of the first three quickest to break in each of his starts so far this season. He also has a very high cruising speed, as he demonstrated when winning at Epsom two starts ago.
That day, he hit a whopping Top Speed of 45.28 mph, and clocked 9.99secs for the second furlong. Those speeds are pretty electric, and he still maintained it impressively to the line with a Finishing Speed Percentage of 98.31%.
The City Walls Stakes at York looks the perfect opportunity for a crack at Listed company whilst he remains in this form.
Alzahir has the pace for minimum trip
Over at Ascot, I think there’s some value to be had in the five-furlong handicap at 4.50.
Alzahir is another five-year-old in the form of his life and is relishing the inspired decision from Jennie Candlish to drop him back to sprint distances.
This is his first try over five furlongs, but the straight track at Ascot is stiffer than most, so his proven stamina over further is going to be a real asset today.
He has proved in his most recent two successes (both over six furlongs) that he has speed, both times clocking fastest furlongs of quicker than 11 seconds, which suggests he should handle this drop in trip today. He was also one of the first two out of the stalls on those two occasions, which means he will be able to take full advantage of the draw he has been gifted.
Stall 18, from where he will start, has historically given its occupants a 0.84 length advantage compared to their rivals in races over this track and trip and in these conditions.
Shouldering top weight, he is likely to go off at a generous each way price, and I am certain you’ll see him galloping powerfully to the line as he comes back to the minimum distance for the first time.