Saturday ante-post tips: "I can't believe he is 12-1"

One of the biggest races of the afternoon on Saturday comes at Newbury in the Group Two Visit Malta Hungerford Stakes.

Its position in the calendar is odd to say the least. Over the same trip, the Lennox took place two weeks ago and the recently upgraded City Of York Stakes takes place next weekend. Add to that the Prix Maurice de Gheest over six and a half furlongs last Sunday, and the programme for the group of horses that favour this intermediate trip looks cluttered, and surely needs revisiting. Did someone say there was too much racing?

This year’s race is headed by Never So Brave, who won the City Of York last year and has never run in the Hungerford. He holds an obvious chance if lining up but he could head back to the Knavesmire so the value probably lies elsewhere. One that takes the eye at double-figure odds is MORRIS DANCER, a talking horse last year after strong juvenile form, but now the forgotten horse after a below-par run at the July Festival.

The son of Palace Pier won twice at two and signed off with an emphatic four-length win in the Listed Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury. The runner-up subsequently won the Group Three Solario Stakes.

This season, Morris Dancer reappeared with an outstanding third in the Jersey Stakes, his first run for 311 days.

He then ran at Newmarket’s July Festival 19 days later but trailed home last of seven behind subsequent Thoroughbred Stakes winner Shayem. The vet found nothing to report for that poor performance, but it is possible he bounced after having such a long layoff and then two tough races inside of three weeks.

I believe he is better judged on his earlier efforts. His third at Ascot could not have worked out much better with the winner Thesecretadversary following up in the Group One Prix Jean Prat and the runner-up Take Charge Star finishing a close up fourth in the Prix Maurice de Gheest on Sunday, beaten just over a length by winner Samangan.

He would not need to find stacks of improvement on his best form therefore, to be in contention here, and as such his odds of 11-1 look very generous.

Over at Newmarket, last year’s Grey Horse Handicap was dominated by the lightly-raced three-year-olds Addison Grey and Binhareer. Both horses are now rated too high to get into this 0-85 handicap and there is no horse with their profile this time around - the only horse from the Classic generation is Nevasca Cinza, who is yet to win and looks crying out for seven furlongs.

With a lack of younger legs in the race, I am keen to side with two well-handicapped veterans in ARCHDUKE FERDINAND and STRIKE, both former winners of this race who finished first and second respectively two years ago, and they have undoubtedly been targeted at this unique event once more.

The former was last seen winning in good style at Redcar two weeks ago under promising 5lb claimer Shay Farmer, who again takes the ride.

He has been raised 5lb to a mark of 79 by the handicapper and, although that means he is 4lb above the mark he won this race off two seasons ago, he did win off 6lb higher than this last year and his free-going running style is well-suited to the July Course.

Meanwhile, Strike, a winner of this race back in 2022, has ran in the race every year since without winning, but did finish a neck behind winner Archduke Ferdinane in 2024 off 5lb higher.

He also arrives here in good form, with only one run disappointing run from six starts this campaign, and after a gutsy success at Newbury last month, he is up just 3lb and back on the same mark he began the season on. Billy Loughnane is also currently booked to ride, another positive.

Ripon's biggest race of the year, the William Hill/MND Association Great St Wilfrid Handicap, also takes places on Saturday afternoon and I am keen on the chances of course and distance winners LORD ROXBY and KODIAC THRILLER against the field.

You obviously need a horse good enough, or well-handicapped enough to win this race, but it is almost always crucial to get a prominent position. Seven of the last ten runnings have been won by the horse that has made every yard of the running and all but one winner in that period has been very prominently positioned.

They are incredible statistics, so it may be worth having an in-running play here too, but Lord Roxby definitely looks value at around at a best-priced 10-1 after a win over course and distance last time out, where, you guessed it, he made all.

He recorded the highest top speed in the race and he won in a good time, recoding an Index of 8.8, well above the meeting average of 6.8. He has been in the top four fastest horses to reach 20mph in his past three races, and another strong start at Ripon could see him a tough horse to pass once more.

Kodiac Thriller, meanwhile, posses even stronger early speed statistics. For the races with data available, he has been in the top two fastest horses to reach 20mph in every race this year and all but one of his seven starts. He has been the fastest on three of the past four occasions.

A course and distance winner earlier in the season, he was only fourth on his most recent start at the track (two runs ago), but that was after an uncharacteristic stumble at the start where he almost unshipped his jockey, so a length and three-quarter defeat was a fine effort in the circumstances.

He was last seen winning the Jump Jockeys' Nunthorpe at York and can defy this 4lb rise with the thoroughly underrated Cam Hardie taking over in the saddle. He was second in last year's Great St Wilfred, winning his group, and is arguably now in better form. I can't believe he is 12-1.

ARCHDUKE FERDINAND at 7-2 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Unibet

STRIKE at 9-2 with bet365

MORRIS DANCER at 11-1 with bet365

LORD ROXBY at 10-1 with Sky Bet and Paddy Power

KODIAC THRILLER at 12-1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Unibet