Ruby Walsh's Grand National verdict: Gold Cup form holds the key

Ruby Walsh's Grand National verdict: Gold Cup form holds the key

By Ruby Walsh
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
By Ruby Walsh
I wish I was riding in today’s Randox Health Grand National, but my leg is an a moonboot so I will be watching on from Aintree with great interest and no doubt enjoyment.
Ruby Walsh at Aintree with his sister Katie. (The Jockey Club)
The Grand National Festival and especially the race itself, has really grown from one year to the next in terms of popularity and it’s one of the great sporting occasions.
The first aspect to focus on is the heavy ground. I’m of the mind-set that this is National Hunt racing and National Hunt horses should be able to handle slow ground. It also makes it safer for the riders involved, so the ground isn’t going to detract from the race at all.
Aintree has black soil and it’s different to Cheltenham or Haydock up the road. It gets wet very quickly and can generate a huge amount of kickback. The rain punctures the ground and it really sucks you in. Stamina will matter more than it usually does and the days of a two-and-half-mile horse winning the Grand National have gone out of window.
That’s not because of the modification of the jumps; it’s because there are now measures in place to catch the loose horses in catchment areas, which is a great thing, not only for safety, but also because it means a truer test of pace. Previously, the loose horses used to be at the front of the field and it meant jockeys took their time to see what the loose horses would do and the pace would be slowed down as a result.
I am sucker for class when it comes to the National, but this year it’s going to take guts.
If it continues to rain it will inconvenience horses over 11 stone. Every 1lb above 11st is really going to count against you. If it got really soft, then you’d have to look at horses under 11st.
It’s funny in that when I started to ride in the National there was always a line of jockeys queuing to get into the sauna. Given the bottom-weight is 10st 5lb, no-one uses it now! Have the horses got that much better? I am not so sure.
Anyway, given my preference for class, and if the rain doesn’t get in too much, then I think Anibale Fly and Total Recall are the two to focus on.
They both ran so well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I think that form is head and shoulders above everything else in the race.
I know Total Recall well, given he’s trained by Willie Mullins, and he’s been in great form this season, winning the Munster National and Ladbrokes Trophy, what was previously the Hennessy, and was running a good race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, before falling three out.
Total Recall is a best-price 14-1 for National (The Jockey Club)
He over-jumped that fence, which he has tendency to do; he can go a bit high and go through the air. His jockey David Mullins was adamant he’d be involved, but then jockeys always have that optimistic slant! From my eyes, he had been off the bridle once or twice and I reckon he would have finished in or around Anibale Fly, who was third.
I don’t think running in the Gold Cup will inconvenience the pair. Hedgehunter was second in both the Gold Cup and the National and Many Clouds finished sixth at Cheltenham before winning the big race in 2015. And this year, there is four weeks between the two races.
The concern is if you come to Aintree as a bit of an afterthought, in that the horse has been trained to peak at Cheltenham after a long season, but I don’t think these two will be over the top.
So I’d side with Total Recall, but Anibale Fly won’t be far from him, if they both get round, but I do have a worry that their big weights could counter their class element.
Of course, I’ll be keeping a very close eye on Baie Des Iles, who is ridden by my sister Katie.
Her husband Ross O’Sullivan is very happy with the mare and she’s had a good preparation. She won the national trial at Punchestown in 2017 and then was third in the same race in February on very testing ground.
She’s a good jumper and hopefully Katie will have a good run on the day.
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