Page Fuller, lead analyst for RaceiQ, crunches the numbers ahead of Friday's action at Royal Ascot.
Wimbledon Hawkeye can serve up a treat
January has been a bit of a bridesmaid in Group company but I expect her to put a below-par run in the Irish 2000 Guineas firmly behind her in the Coronation Cup (4.20) at Royal Ascot on Friday.
She is not short of speed and has clocked one of the top three Top Speeds in every race she has run in so far.
January recorded the quickest Top Speed of the field in the 1000 Guineas and maintained that well to the line. She was only outstayed by the impressive Desert Flower, and the fast finishing Ballet Slippers in the final furlong.
Fast forward to the Curragh, and the race played out in a completely different fashion.
Lake Victoria won impressively but enjoyed quickening off a steady pace as they went very steadily before sprinting home.
To put this into context, Lake Victoria’s penultimate furlong of 10.47 seconds was more than two seconds quicker than her fourth furlong time of 12.58 seconds.
Unlike Lake Victoria, who sat handy, January was stuck at the back of the field, and still had nine rivals to pass with two furlongs to go.
Despite clocking the third highest Top Speed of 43 mph in the penultimate furlong, she was never going to land a blow from the back of the pack in a race run in such fashion.
The round course at Ascot puts a lot of emphasis on speed, and that’s her biggest asset. The race will be more conventionally run and should set it up much better for her.
In the King Edward VII Stakes (5.35), Wimbledon Hawkeye has his first try at 1m4f, and I think he’s definitely being over looked.
He was a Group Two winner last season as a two-year-old, and has proven a real yardstick in whichever race he has run in.
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He has been tremendously versatile showing both speed and stamina in defeat. He reached 41.7 mph when chasing home The Lion In Winter at York last summer, faster than any other horse in the field has reached. But he also ground it out on soft ground over a mile at Newmarket in the autumn.
He is settling a lot better than his early days, but it’s almost playing against him now, so connections have reached for cheekpieces to add some spark.
He hasn’t been faster than 39.3 mph in his three starts this season, so I think the step up in trip will give him the perfect opportunity to rekindle that turn of foot when quickening off a steadier pace.
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