Ross Millar: my best bets over Jumps at Kempton on Monday

I’ve perhaps been a bit slow to switch from Jumps mode to Flat mode but I woke on Saturday with genuine excitement that in

City Of Troy

we might get to see a really special colt re-appear in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas - one who might carry the sport forward and maybe even generate media interest from outside of the racing bubble. 

My hope waned slightly when watching him walk around the paddock. He’s a neat and correct model but impressive he wasn’t, especially in comparison to a colt like Night Raider – who was for me the paddock-pick. 

City Of Troy travelled nicely for the first half of the race before distress signals started to show as Ryan Moore got to work and found no response forthcoming. He wasn’t given a hard time once beaten but it was alarming how little he found for pressure. Bubble burst. 

Yes, yard form is a reasonable excuse. Yes, he got a little upset in the stalls (for the five seconds he was in them). And, yes, I am a staunch advocate of forgiving a horse one poor run. But if you asked me about City Of Troy adding a Group One to his CV this season, I’d be a layer not a player. 

The Qipco1000 Guineas on Sunday sprang another surprise with 28/1 shot Elmalka flashing home to win in the final stride under Silvestra De Sousa. 

Like yesterdays winner, Notable Speech, she wasn’t afforded a juvenile campaign on turf and made her racecourse debut on the all-weather. Notably four of the first five home were ridden patiently, so it may pay to mark up the performance of those who raced prominently, most notably Ramatuelle who was sent for home a long way out by Aurelien Lemaitre. The takeout from the race for me was

Ylang Ylang

who lacked the gears for this trip but ran a super trial for next month's Betfred Oaks. It will take a very good filly to beat her at Epsom.  

Nicky Henderson is triple handed in this and I’m quite keen on his apparent first string, Ideal Des Bordes, with Nico De Boinville in the saddle. 

It was obviously a tough spring for the master of Seven Barrows with a bug hitting the yard in the run-up to Cheltenham. But April was a more positive month with regards to yard form (though obviously the tragic loss of Shishkin overshadowed that) and he starts the new Jump season with his horses running well at a 19% strike rate. 

Ideal Des Bordes ran well on his first two starts over hurdles, both at Ascot, finishing second and then third in strong heats. However, he badly disappointed at Exeter on his most recent in January when he weakened drastically before three hurdles from home.  

He returns now with the benefit of wind surgery and on better ground, with his stable in much better form. 

I suspect he’s better than his mark of 118 but nevertheless that mark still sets a high enough bar in a contest like this. The fact that connections are prepared to delay handicap company suggests they think he’s well up to landing a maiden of this nature. 

Getalead was a flagship horse for his previous trainer Claire Harris, winning five hurdle races and rising from a mark of 107 to 128 before leaving her for current trainer Kevin Pickard. 

He inherited a badly-handicapped horse but after three poor runs I think Getalead is now looking well-handicapped off his last winning mark of 112. 

His most recent run at Wincanton, his first after wind surgery, was also a little more promising than the bare form suggests. 

Held up at the rear, in contrast to the positive tactics used for his five wins, he jumped well and made a strong move heading down the back straight, before ultimately lacking the gears to sustain that run. He might also have wanted for fitness on his first start after a break, though he did keep on well to finish in fourth. 

He’s yet to win over than 2m5½f but was always a strong finisher at that trip and often on more demanding tracks than Kempton. I have no concerns over the trip and if he can build on his latest run he’s weighted to go close. 

Neil Mulholland has his string in good form with three winners from his past 14 runners.  

Inoui Machin has been a model of consistency over hurdles this winter, only failing to place on one of his six hurdle starts, though I’m sure it was frustrating for connections that he managed only a sole victory. However, the form of that win looks solid.  

Running at Hereford, like Kempton a relatively sharp right-handed track, over 2m3f he showed some strong late work to get up in the shadows of the post to edge out El Granjero – now rated 120 and winner of his next two starts. 

It’s a piece of form that suggests not only is he well handicapped off 115 but that he will improve for the step up in trip to this distance. 

His most recent start came in a handicap back over the same course and distance at Hereford. He finished third, beaten just four lengths, and was again finishing powerfully despite getting hampered on the home turn. 

Sam Twiston-Davies knows him well, having ridden him in three of his starts this season as well as in a bumper victory last year. I expect him to deliver a promising ride and they look capable of showing more now upped in trip.