Ross Millar: Derby reflections and best bets for Monday

How quickly things can change. I don’t think I will have been alone in thinking that up until this weekend the Flat season had been just that . . . flat. 

Yet on Saturday, in just an exhilarating two minutes and thirty-eight seconds, it sprang to life.  

Portions of humble pie were being served left, right and centre as proved beyond all doubt that he had indeed trained on and was every bit as good as we’d all hoped he might be as he glided home to win the Betfred Derby in striking style.  

I’d not fallen into the “he’s not trained on” camp after the Guineas but I had wondered whether he was robust enough to deal with the unique demands of Epsom and indeed whether he’d have the stamina for the extra half-mile. 

I was wrong on both counts. Indeed, the way he grabbed hold of Ryan Moore and went on again after the line suggested to me that the St Leger would probably not be beyond him either. 

Maybe if he had won the Guineas, a Triple Crown bid would have been on the cards. But with that no longer a possibility it appears that his attention might now be switched to a campaign on the dirt in the US.  

What most stood out for me in O’Brien’s brilliant interview with Lydia Hislop after the race was his humility and his willingness to take ownership of mistakes made in the run up to the Guineas while at the same time deflecting all the praise for the Derby victory on to his many support staff. You might argue whether he’s a genius, but there can be no arguing his class. 

On Monday, I have selections from Ayr, Wetherby and Listowel. You can watch the action live on Racing TV.  

A Charlie Fellowes-trained son of Mehmas, he was logged as a ‘Winner In Waiting’ in last week’s Juvenile Watch after he made an eye-catching debut at Newbury in what looked like a competitive maiden. 

Ridden by Jamie Spencer, he was ridden patiently having tracked over from a wide draw to race against the stand side rail. 

He travelled well into the closing stages but a gap up the rail was not forthcoming, meaning he had to be switched wide to challenge. That manoeuvre meant he forfeited plenty of ground and despite displaying some rapid acceleration the line came too soon.  

He will have learnt plenty from that experience and in a much smaller field he should not find the same traffic problems.   

After a promising start to his chase career, when winning his first two starts, he became disappointing, often producing error strewn rounds of jumping, before a fall at Cheltenham in December 2023 possibly eroded his already fragile confidence for jumping a fence. 

He did not fare much better when switched to hurdles at the Punchestown Festival this spring where under a prominent ride he weakened tamely in the closing stages. 

A return to more patient riding tactics appeared to suit him far better at Killarney last time, he finished very powerfully and only just failed to overhaul eventual winner Senecia by a rapidly diminishing head. 

That run should have boosted his confidence and with Mark Walsh retaining the ride he can go one better here with a handy 2lb pull at the weight with the re-opposing Senecia. 

Three of the ten in this line-up made their debut in the same race at Thirsk two weeks ago. 

Miss Hathaway was most green of the trio and has plenty of scope for progression. She was slowly away from the gate and then hung left when making her challenge. It did not cost her victory, but she certainly forfeited ground. 

By contrast, Unspoken Love looked well educated for her debut. She broke smartly and raced with enthusiasm at the head of the field. 

She could not match the eventual winner in the closing stages and weakened into third in the last half-furlong. She will step forward for the run, but Karl Burke debutants are rarely in need of the run, and she does have an extra half-furlong to contend with. 

My preference would be for the Richard Fahey-trained Eartha. She finished strongly at Thirsk having taken a while to get the hang of things when asked for her finishing effort. I’d expect her to take a big step forward for that debut effort, with the extra half-furlong sure to suit. By virtue of her sire, Land Force, having a lower median auction value for his stock she is in Band C in this race and receives a valuable 2lb from her two re-opposing rivals, that swing in the weights should be enough to see her home in front.