Road To Cheltenham: Where next for impressive Ballyburn?

Willie Mullins was being mischievous when he said it, but it’s the clincher. Asked on ITV Racing whether he has cause to think State Man is a better horse this year than when thumped nine lengths by Constitution Hill last March, at first he merely said: “Hope. That’s it, hope. That’s all we can do, I think, hope.”

But he added: “Our fellow has been doing everything right.” Then, with a cheeky look to camera: “And he’s been out on the track . . . so, I don’t know. We haven’t seen Constitution Hill.”

Tell us about it, Willie. Laying to one side many fans’ much-discussed frustrations and strictly concentrating on this fact in punting terms, the market has behaved as though their relative standings on 14 March 2023 have been forever preserved in aspic. That whatever State Man has done this season, Constitution Hill remains nine lengths better. But the truth is we don’t know, like the man said.

We have plenty of evidence that State Man is at least as good as, if not a shade better than, his best form of last season. Three comfortable Grade One wins against relatively substantial rivals in Ireland – the best of them on the day more than a stone superior to Rubaud, the nine-and-a-half-length runner-up to a coasting Constitution Hill in Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle.

“I’m not sure whether this performance or the Christmas performance was better,” Mullins mused about State Man last Sunday. “I thought Christmas was visually very good. What he did, he got down and raced when Impaire Et Passe came up behind him… We think he’s not going backwards; he’s going forward little by little.”

State Man fell 2-3lb short of his best efforts of last season in the 2023 Champion Hurdle, as Paul Townend has said more than once from his perspective. Whether this was due to a mildly off day or his rival causing him to underperform is the crux.

Townend’s mount was left behind on the home turn, as Nico de Boinville pressed on the gas and the winner quickened away in the straight. State Man never even threatened, edging left as Constitution Hill powered clear. Yet he did stick on well to the line whereas stablemate Vauban faltered after also trying to raise a challenge two out – meaning he was resilient enough to express more of his ability than that rival, whom he beat further at Cheltenham than at Leopardstown twice previously.

“I believe strongly last year that I had to work very hard to beat the rest of the horses,” Townend reiterated to Fran Berry on Racing TV last Sunday. “I’m not saying I’d have beaten Constitution Hill, but I just didn’t get the feel off him throughout the race like I was expecting. So, hopefully he can go there this year and give him a race of it anyway.”

In winning his second Irish Champion Hurdle and his eighth Grade One to date on Sunday, State Man beat trip-dropping Bob Olinger by five-and-a-half lengths. The pace was slow – steadier until the straight than either the earlier Grade One novice or the later handicap hurdle over the same course and distance, thanks to Impaire Et Passe proving temperamentally unsuited to the task of front-running.

Daryl Jacob had to try something different on last term’s Ballymore winner, however, having been beaten under patient tactics in the Matheson over Christmas. Yet it was immediately obvious this wasn’t going to work when a confused-looking Impaire Et Passe had to be urged into the lead at the start, even getting a tap down his shoulder to convince him of what was required. Having laboriously established a clear lead by the third, he forfeited it by pressing the brakes.

Nudged into the fourth, he started running down his hurdles to the right from the fifth. After again convincing his mount into the de facto final flight, Jacob gave a fearful look over his shoulder entering the home turn. They were all behind him! But not for long – State Man taking over as soon as he did in the straight was an act of mercy.

Having been settled in last, Bob Olinger ranged up on the outside on that bend but went from travelling strongly to characteristically sticking his head in the air and lugging left as State Man engaged the boosters and Rachael Blackmore strenuously manoeuvred her mount around the bypassed final flight. The winner finished off the race with a firm injection of speed, but Bob kept going like the happier horse he’s been this season.

Impaire Et Passe held off stablemate Echoes In Rain for third, the mare having been typically keen in the type of small-field contest that doesn’t suit her ideally and at a grade that offers her little realistic chance of success. She will no doubt head for the Close Brothers David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle for the third year running, where she’ll get the cover she craves but make little impact up the final hill.

Bob Olinger and Impaire Et Passe will skip Cheltenham in favour of the Aintree Hurdle; both were scratched from the Unibet Champion Hurdle this week and the latter from the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle to boot. Mullins also talked of fences for Impaire Et Passe next term – a plan he may ideally have wanted to execute sooner. Perhaps the most disappointing element about that horse this season is how his jumping has not withstood promotion into open company.

For State Man, it will be the re-match we all want to see. Well, almost all of us. On Sunday evening, there was growing evidence of something in the Lambourn water when the Racing Post’s correspondent suggested aiming this eight-time Grade One winner and clear second-best hurdler in training at the County rather than the Champion. I’m hoping it was a spoof but if Charles Hills speaks of laying out Iberian for the Britannia, we’ll have to stage a valley-wide intervention.

Perhaps it also reeked of a high complacency count in the local area? Odd, when the titleholder’s season has failed to go to plan – missing his intended start in the Fighting Fifth due to its weather-driven postponement and skipping an underwhelming prep in the Bula, in the end due to a poor scope. Meanwhile, State Man’s campaign has gone like clockwork.

Admittedly, nobody knows as much about bringing a Champion Hurdler to the boil as Nicky Henderson – he’s won it nine times with six different horses and, as Mullins acknowledged on Sunday, has “a great knack of producing them right on the day”. Yet his closest active rival in this specific pursuit is Mullins, who holds four victories in the race and an attitude that clearly puts State Man at least in the conversation with Hurricane Fly, Faugheen and Annie Power. 

Of State Man, Mullins said on Sunday: “He’s easy to ride, he settles in, he does whatever Paul wants him to do and jumps well all the time. He’s good, he’s solid. He’s not flashy like Constitution Hill or some other horses; he just gets the job done.”

“He’s just so uncomplicated, professional – didn’t mind Daryl’s horse idling in front and jumping right. He’s a joy to do anything with,” Townend agreed. “With the last [hurdle] being out, I probably took Daryl on early enough but he was going so well and soon came on the bridle.

“I loved him last year and I love him even more this year because he keeps winning. He’s proven his superiority over the horses over here, anyway. It’s just a pity Constitution Hill is in his way.”

The market certainly sees it that way but those thinking they’re buying money at 1/5 underestimate State Man at their peril. Meanwhile, I can’t help but notice Constitution Hill has seamlessly evolved from a horse vying for the crown of best-ever hurdler to post-coronation in many write-ups – without having done anything more convincing than his 2022 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle victory in measurable terms.

Yes, his Kempton procession was easy on the eye but we were all then expecting it to be the first in a building portfolio of performances ahead of Cheltenham. Those putting a figure on that form can rate it no more highly than his Sandown successes as a novice. Between the idea and the reality… falls the shadow.

“We hope it’s going to be a big race,” Mullins concluded on Sunday. “Nicky is probably hoping not.”

Lovers of elite sport – those of us who can safely drink the water – are with Mullins on this one. An improved and fully primed State Man is exactly the calibre of rival to demand substance as well as style from the lesser-spotted Constitution Hill. And he’s also no slam-dunk.

El Fabiolo wasn’t flawless when dashing the hopes of another aspirant to top two-mile chasing honours in Sunday’s Dublin Chase but his jumping got noticeably slicker as the race developed.

However, that hold-your-breath fear that he might throw in a howler has largely abated, whereas the hesitancy of his chief market rival for the Champion Chase, Jonbon, has become steadily more pronounced with each start. What was credibly billed as a potent re-match at the start of the season has slipped further away from our grasp.

Back to defend the title he won during pilot Danny Mullins’ flurry of Grade One successes at last year’s DRF, Gentleman De Mee set off in front from the outset this year. However, it was apparent from the first that his jumping wasn’t quite in the same order. Perhaps tackier ground than in 2023 didn’t help, even though it had dried out a shade overnight within the realms of good-to-soft compared with Saturday’s card this year. Going at a dawdle, he jinked right and jumped that initial fence awkwardly before chucking himself to the right at the second and pecking on landing; he got better, though.

Tracking the leader on a similarly outer course in second, the winner aped his right-hand bias – something I don’t recall seeing from El Fabiolo in the past. This habit became more pronounced in the middle section of the race – after landing in a heap at the fourth and lacking fluency at the fifth, he ran down the sixth some way to the right.

Dinoblue raced in mid-division more towards the inside under Mark Walsh than her stablemates, but El Fabiolo’s errant jumping enabled her to get on terms sooner and more easily than might otherwise have been the case. The de facto second-last and final fences were pivotal, however, because Paul Townend attacked the former and then put the mare on the back foot at the latter, his mount achieving superior execution in every department at both obstacles.

El Fabiolo then sauntered past Gentleman De Mee on landing and, although Dinoblue tried to respond under pressure whereas the long-time leader had no answer, she could never get on terms. Indeed, the final four fences were a much more professional job from El Fabiolo, who was perhaps bored by his opposition for much of the race.

Townend put it succinctly: “We didn’t go hard out of the traps, I suppose, and he was saucy early, but I got in control of the race with a couple of big jumps down the back and he did it nicely.”

Walsh conceded afterwards that there was no scenario in which he could envisage bridging the gap. The postscript confirmed this with not only Dinoblue being scratched from the Champion Chase but also Jonbon from the Ryanair, thus putting to bed any fear of any left-field switcheroo for owner JP McManus.

Back in third, Captain Guinness – whom trainer Henry de Bromhead confirmed pre-race had suffered at Christmas a recurrence of the heart issue that had once previously troubled him more than three years earlier – was given an understandably sympathetic ride and plugged on past a hanging Gentleman De Mee.

Partner Rachael Blackmore later said she’d been happier with her mount, without either yet entirely convincing that he’d bounced back from his unfortunate experience.

Back in fifth, Saint Roi jumped conspicuously badly and increasingly out to his right on his return to Grade One company – at one stage threatening to land Jody McGarvey in the external service road. His fourth in a Fairyhouse handicap, hampered by a faller three out, is of far greater relevance to his Grand Annual ambitions than this out-of-his-depth supplication to the official handicapper.

Despite jumping more hesitantly than when routing his opposition in the Savills Chase at Christmas, especially in the early stages, Galopin Des Champs controlled the Irish Gold Cup.

His auld rival Fastorslow – against whom the score was then a 2-2 draw – could never quite threaten and the closest Paul Townend got to a shaky moment came when his mount shot a look at the gap by the wing at the last. A couple of quick taps got his mind back on the job, however.

Afterwards, the runner-up’s trainer Martin Brassil wondered whether better ground might help in the big re-match in the Gold Cup and with Fastorslow being both the neater jumper and as strong a stayer, perhaps JJ Slevin might be inclined to pursue more positive tactics at Cheltenham. However, Galopin Des Champs himself is unlikely to be as patiently ridden as he was last year.

Some also suggested Fastorslow had scope to tighten up from a fitness perspective, having not run since lowering Galopin Des Champ’s colours for a second time in the John Durkan in early December. I’m not familiar enough with the horse to know whether there’s anything in this, but pass it on just in case.

Poor old Conflated unseated a different jockey at Leopardstown’s last again, but had run with credit – no doubt aided by an attainable pace. He surely heads to the Festival’s Cross-Country Chase next, where Gordon Elliott rightly believes he holds a far better chance of winning than in the Ryanair.

After typically running down his fences to the extreme left, I Am Maximus inherited third. Both he and Conflated are entered in the Grand National, where at least the Canal Turn should be right up I am Maximus’s street; the rest of it, I’m not so sure.

On visual evidence alone, it would be tempting to dismiss Fact To File’s defeat of stablemate Gaelic Warrior in a match for the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival – a race in which the winner finished alone – but the clock says this was a highly substantial performance to bring Willie Mullins his 11th success in the race.

A straight comparison with Heart Wood’s later triumph over the same course and distance – that winner a talented novice in his own right – alone demonstrates that the Grade One event set off at a good clip which was maintained until long-time errant leader Gaelic Warrior waved the white flag and Mark Walsh was able to ease off, victory already secured.

In the immediate aftermath, Walsh was inclining towards the Brown Advisory for the winner, on the basis that his mount wasn’t slowing until he asked him. However, connections might reflect that the shorter Turners Novices’ Chase might be the more suitable option at this stage in the horse’s development.

Despite these factors, it also remains true to say Gaelic Warrior was not as his best. Whilst he’s always been a headstrong character, he looked agitated in the paddock at Leopardstown and proved a handful to post and in the race for Paul Townend.

He’d shot his bolt when landing in a heap four out and would surely have been pulled up if there had been a third player in the race. As it was, Townend eased him off at the next fence and just hoped to complete but was decanted – the jockey sustaining a thumping fall and a kick for good measure – when his mount made his final right-adjusting error at the last fence.

Gaelic Warrior is shaping as if in need of dropping to the minimum trip but that would involve the tightly turning Old Course at Cheltenham and therefore exacerbate his habit of jumping right. For all that he’s conspicuous talent, he’s in danger of going the wrong way.

Grangeclare West, the stable companion of this 1-2 at Closutton, was withdrawn from the race after getting cast in his box. Three days later, it emerged that this fragile horse will now miss the remainder of the season, not for the first time in his oft-abortive career.

Don’t be surprised of smooth-jumping Embassy Gardens is now shuffled towards the Brown Advisory and away from the NH Chase by Mullins, perhaps leaving Nick Rockett to take up duties in the longer event.

There was also an upset in the Irish Arkle, when Il Etait Temps beat his more vaunted stablemate Facile Vega for the second year running at this fixture. The winner did well to wear down the long-time leader, Christmas course-and-distance Grade One winner Found A Fifty, who was best positioned after setting another steady enough pace but rider Danny Mullins was in determined mood, with last of his trio of Grade One successes on the opening day.

Admittedly, the winner has twice underperformed at Cheltenham, but there are excuses for each defeat when taken in isolation – pulling too hard in the 2022 Triumph and making a precipitate wide move in the Supreme 12 months later. He has taken to fences much better than his physique or respect for hurdles might have suggested and is now a realistic contender in a more open Arkle.

Found A Fifty again adjusted right, so it looks like more of a habit that rider Jack Kennedy was willing to concede over Christmas, but he also looked a more professional article on this occasion. He wasn’t helped by stumbling on landing at the last, but the fact he was run out of it by Il Etait Temps suggests he might need to step up in trip

As for Facile Vega, his trainer typically could only see positives – that he was better here than at Christmas – but Townend was emboldened to say aloud that his mount is not a two-miler. He’s right – the horse spends too much time in the air to be effective at the highest grade at that trip. He’s either going to require being ridden aggressively rather than merely more forward – but his way of jumping undermines that option – or else he’ll have to step up in trip.

Back in fourth, five-times Grade One winning hurdler Sharjah again was unable to get substantially involved even if he sat too far off the steady pace.

As for Marine Nationale, neither jockey Michael O’Sullivan nor trainer Barry Connell could provide a definitive explanation for this subdued effort. No clinical reason has come to light, so Connell was inclined to blame tacky, raced-on going for a horse he maintained last season needed top of the ground. He struggled to hold his position from four out and, although he rallied bravely in the straight, he was beaten when blundering at the last.

That same day at Sandown, Nickle Back gained his much-deserved Grade One stripes after stepping back up in trip and switching to a right-handed track, both of which trainer Sarah Humphrey had suggested would suit after his bold-jumping second to the ill-fated Hermes Allen at Newbury in December. His defeat in the two-mile Wayward Lad over Christmas – a project on which she wasn’t fully sold – had only made her diagnosis more evidently correct.

Attacking these challenging fences from the outset, he’d already established a six-length lead after the third and was much further clear entering the back straight. By now in an inexorable jumping rhythm, he forced errors from his chasing rivals second time around at the Railway Fences – Djelo typically low and adjusting right, Le Patron scrappy and Colonel Harry simply outpaced.

Entering the straight, he was beginning to pay for his exertions and Hermes Allen was starting to respond to Harry Cobden’s urgings until sadly taking a fatal fall at the second last. By the line, Djelo had narrowed the gap to seven lengths but, quite simply, the winner was in his element and his remaining pursuers were unable even to mount a challenge.

Understandably, given his style of running, Humphrey is inclined to skip Cheltenham and head for Aintree’s Manifesto Novices’ Chase – and who would argue with her? Certainly not me.

Corbetts Cross, who skipped this race and the Dublin Racing Festival after failing to please Emmet Mullins in his work, instead pitched up against more experienced horses at Fairyhouse on Wednesday – clearly a National Hunt Chase warm-up, as his trainer had previously suggested, with professional-amateur Derek O’Connor.

It ended with a collision with right-jumping Run Wild Fred at the third last after Corbett Cross had himself run down that fences to his left – hardly an ideal Festival sighter.

Up at Musselburgh, Marble Sands showed his quality when benefitting from a strong pace and ease in grade when winning Saturday’s novices’ limited handicap chase from a mark of 141. He’d previously waved the white flag behind Il Est Français in the Grade One Kauto Star at Kempton over Christmas, paying a further compliment to that winner, if one more were necessary.

Returning to Heart Wood, he was able to laugh at an Irish mark of 136 and he strength of his finish suggested he could hold his own in a deeper race. He’d previously finished second to Hollow Games prior to missing the rest of last season and then filled the same spot this term behind Grangeclare West and Blood Destiny.

In the same race, we never got to find out how Meetingofthewaters would have reacted to the curious addition of a first-time hood in that same race because he was all but brought down when unseating Brian Hayes at the first. When he won that big-field handicap over three miles at the same track over Christmas, he didn’t seem to have any trouble settling.

However, happily for connections, merely starting in six chases is sufficient to satisfy the enhanced qualification criteria for the Randox Grand National, so doubtless the Batman headgear can now go back in its box for Cheltenham.

By far the most exciting and informative race of the Dublin Racing Festival was Ballyburn’s authoritative defeat of fellow progressive hurdler Slade Steel in the Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sales Novice Hurdle. As Ruby Walsh and I discussed in Sunday evening’s Road To Cheltenham wrap, we could well have seen the Supreme winner beating the Baring Bingham winner. 

The variable is the usual one, however – and both Willie Mullins and Henry de Bromhead, trainers of the winner and runner-up respectively, spoke of it in the immediate aftermath of the race at Leopardstown. 

“He was very, very good there, so we’ve got to do a lot of thinking now,” Mullins said. “We know he could be sharp enough to do two miles; he could be anything, that horse, couldn’t he?” Pressed on whether it was a Supreme-type performance, the trainer flagged that he’d already got recent Moscow Flyer winner Mystical Power pencilled in for that race.

However, as we know from years of observing the Closutton Order, the Prior General moves in mysterious ways. With Ballyburn seemingly having established his dominance and versatility with this Grade One success – at least on that side of the Irish Sea – the question becomes how best to place their other novices to win as many of the Festival’s graded novice events as possible.

As JP McManus owns Mystical Power, his retained rider Mark Walsh would be riding that horse in the Supreme. Of course, Nicky Henderson also has recent workmanlike Doncaster winner Jeriko De Reponet entered solely in Cheltenham’s two-mile novice, albeit McManus is by no means averse to throwing more than one dart at any event.

Does the yard have anything smart enough to convince Mullins he can secure the Baring Bingham without Ballyburn? Although de Bromhead said he would endeavour to run that horse at Cheltenham wherever Ballyburn wasn’t, Slade Steel did shape as though 2m5f would suit him better than the minimum trip.

Interestingly, on the spot Ruby brought to mind only the Lawlors Of Naas 1-2 Readin Tommy Wrong and Ile Atlantique – the former looking more of an Albert Bartlett type and the latter, after being chinned three times already on his nascent CV, hardly an obvious Grade One banker – when considering the best of Closutton’s other novice talent. Of course, there are other players – some discussed later in this section – but do they yet have the profile to be entrusted with this task? And why didn’t they spring to Ruby’s mind?

Townend explained after winning on Sunday that his mount has a deceptive way of racing, his low head carriage suggesting he’s pulling hard. “His way of galloping probably looks like he’s keener than he is,” he said. “I didn’t mind making it if I had to… He just jumped through whenever I wanted him to and we knew he stayed well, so we weren’t going to complicate [it] on him.”

“He’s a very good horse. He got beat the first day in a dash against a race-fit horse and we were slow at the second last that day and he was closing again,” Townend added, referring to Ballyburn’s seasonal debut defeat by Firefox, who has since underperformed when fourth in the Lawlors Of Naas.

On ground you’d describe as soft, albeit it had dried out somewhat since the Saturday, Ballyburn was always prominently positioned – chasing stuttery-jumping leader Boher Road until joined by Slade Steel at the fourth flight, from which point they both jumped on and were never truly threatened by another rival.

Although both novices’ jumping was sound, Ballyburn snapped back into stride the more swiftly and galloped relentlessly onwards at a pace that finally pushed Slade Steel off the bridle on the home turn. By the line, he had drawn seven lengths clear of the runner-up, who in turn was seven lengths clear of the more patiently ridden King Of Kingsfield.

Both his run style and pedigree suggest that ultimately Ballyburn will want much further than two miles – he’s a full brother to smart three-mile handicapper Noble Endeavour, among other stayers – but the way in which the Supreme tends to be conducted, in a sustained end-to-end gallop like Leopardstown, would suit him ideally. Future Gold Cup winners Best Mate and Kicking King also ran in the Supreme, finishing second, as novice hurdlers.

However, which race he should run in and which he will run in are different concepts for a stable with the depth of Closutton. Given Mystical Power has only ever raced at two miles whereas Ballyburn won over 2m4f at Leopardstown over Christmas, that could push the latter towards the longer Festival event. Mullins seemed to be of the view that he could win either race. He’s 3/1 best for the Baring Bingham and 13/8 best for the Supreme, both on ante-post terms with Coral. 

I remain a big fan of Slade Steel, too, who trades as second favourite behind Ballyburn for the Baring Bingham. Don’t underestimate King Of Kingsfield, either. Trainer Gordon Elliott has previously advised that a sound surface is pivotal to this horse and he stuck to his task well in the straight, despite looking uncomfortable. Although he’s only in the Supreme to date at Cheltenham, he shaped as though he’d stay further.

Last year’s Ebor winner Absurde – since a good seventh in the Melbourne Cup – ran better than the literal form might suggest, finding this drying ground more palatable than the bog he encountered over Christmas. He made a quick, wide move on the home turn but flattened out in the straight and was overtaken for third. Aintree’s Top Novice Hurdle would suit him ideally.

Having his first start since May and on much more testing ground than his Tramore win, Jit Langy made a belated move entering the home turn and stayed on strongly from that uncompetitive position, bearing down on Absurde for fourth near the line. He’d need another outing in novice company to be eligible for a Festival handicap, so keep an eye out in the coming weeks.

Daddy Long Legs jumped better than at Christmas on better ground but still lacked fluency. It’s possible Willie Mullins could also run him again to qualify him for the County, but he just looks too gawky for that project at this stage. Stablemate Gold Dancer, making his Irish debut after a 270-day break, became outpaced after making a mistake at the fifth and was well beaten.

Farren Glory weakened quickly approaching the de facto last and it emerged afterwards that he’d broken a blood vessel. Jumping hasn’t been a strong suit so far – he won the Grade One Royal Bond despite a static last-flight landing and sustained a heavy fall in Aintree’s Formby Hurdle on Boxing Day. He might not have been feeling good at any stage here, or else his tumble might have left a mark because his jumping was rather upright and airy.

Interestingly, No Flies On Him – Edward O’Grady’s once-raced novice-hurdle winner at this track over Christmas – sidestepped this Grade One in favour of shallower waters at Punchestown the weekend after next.

Only Farren Glory’s former stablemate Caldwell Potter, below, has thus far produced a performance comparable to Ballyburn’s success at Leopardstown – and that horse was the chief focus of attention at Andy and Gemma Brown’s dispersal sale at Tattersalls Ireland last Monday, breaking the record for a Jumps horse going under the hammer at €740,000.

He heads to Paul Nicholls’ yard for a partnership comprising John Hales, Sir Alex Ferguson, Ged Mason and Peter Done, who hope he’s a Gold Cup horse of the future. More immediately, with just five weeks remaining until the Cheltenham Festival, signs are that he’ll be given time to acclimatise to his new surroundings and is unlikely to appear until Aintree. Interestingly, if you like him and are prepared to chance him taking the move to Ditcheat in his stride, Bet365 have pushed him out to 14/1 non-runner-no-bet for the Baring Bingham – a big price.

With Mullins’ Festival manoeuvres in mind, it's worth mentioning a trio of lightly raced novices who’ve won recently. Billericay Dickie was confidently ridden to win on debut for Closutton at Punchestown last week, despite concerns that he would not handle the heavy ground. Townend delayed his challenge until approaching the last but his mount still surged clear by 11 lengths. Such tactics wouldn’t be well suited to Cheltenham, however.

At Limerick the following day, Mistergif particularly impressed with the fluency of his jumping when making his winning debut for the yard, dominating a novice event from the outset and drawing clear by 18 lengths. He had raced twelve times on the Flat in France at trips up to ten furlongs, winning once, but took a marked step forward here on his two previous hurdles outing after a 325-day break.

That Mullins pair hold entries in the Supreme and Baring Bingham whereas recent Punchestown winner Mercurey overlaps with the latter entry but also a ticket for the Albert Bartlett. Having shaped well on his return from a 399-day absence behind stablemate Lisnagar Fortune at the same track last month, this time he was positively ridden and never faced a serious challenge.

Lightkeeper, seven-length runner-up to the Mullins-trained Tullyhill on his racecourse debut at Naas last month, was the only rival able to remain within hailing distance but he was left behind on the home turn. Built for chasing and further than that 2m1f trip, this was a good improvement on what Mercurey had mustered previously.

Returning to Leopardstown, there was more Mullins domination in the Grade One Nathaniel Lacey & Partners Novice Hurdle – the opening contest of the DRF, when other stables still retained some hope. Always towards the fore, Dancing City clearly relished the step up in trip and looks set to join stablemate High Class Hero in the Albert Bartlett.

By contrast, an extra mile didn’t suit Predators Gold after his hardy second to Caldwell Potter over the minimum trio a Christmas – he pulled too hard to get home and is likely to be part of his trainer’s vast Baring Bingham contingent.

Third-placed Jetara had over-raced in the early stages but not long after Rachael Blackmore appeared to have wrested back control, her new boots slipped in her irons and her mount was lit up all over again, getting a race on and squandering her chance. She’s been withdrawn from the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and heads to Fairyhouse instead.

At Sandown last Saturday, Jingko Blue looked chucked in when winning a novice handicap hurdle from an opening mark of 124. His jumping was a little scrappy at time but he travelled strongly and finished his race off powerfully.

“They don’t look as strong as they might have done,” was Nicky Henderson’s verdict on those horses that may prove to be Sir Gino’s major opposition in next month’s JCB Triumph Hurdle. He’d just watched Willie Mullins dominate the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown via quantity rather than standout quality.

The filly Kargese led home three stablemates, having settled better than when conceding weight and narrowly beaten by Kala Conti there over Christmas. That rival was unable to control this event as she had previously, became outpaced and rallied for fifth. She’ll skip Cheltenham in favour of taking on elder mares at Fairyhouse.

At least the first four head to Cheltenham – and I’d be least sanguine from a Henderson perspective about third-placed Majborough, a quality horse in looks and appearance on his debut for Closutton. You’d expect him to come forward markedly from this.

However, in the days preceding last month’s big domestic juvenile clash with Burdett Road, Henderson had been as conspicuously confident about Sir Gino’s chance as he had been wary about Jonbon’s in the Clarence House. He said the clash between his top juvenile and the then-market-leader would decide the favourite for the Triumph – and that horse still resides at Seven Barrows.

Advised 16/11/23: Envoi Allen at 16/1 for the Ryanair Chase with Paddy Power  

Advised 04/01/24: Appreciate It at 12/1 for the Ryanair Chase with Paddy Power

Advised 18/01/24: Slade Steel at 14/1 for the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle with Paddy Power 

Advised 01/01/24: Marie’s Rock at 33/1 for the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle with Bet365

Advised 25/01/24: Protektorat each-way at 33/1 for the Ryanair Chase with various firms