Randox Ulster National: your big-race guide

Tom Thurgood takes a look at the €50,000 Randox Ulster National and shares some names to note as well as some pointers to bear in mind ahead of the big feature of the year at Downpatrick. Enjoy Sunday’s highlight live on Racing TV.

The Randox Ulster National is the big race of the year at Downpatrick and a bumper crowd piled in to see Spades Are Trumps land the feature contest and notable local highlight last year.

First established in 1939, notable winners in that time include 1962 victor Laffy - owned by HRH Queen Elizabeth, The Queen Mother – as well as the admirable Pineau De Re, who triumphed in 2013 before Grand National glory at Aintree the following spring.

Seventeen runners are currently entered for this year’s race, and here we highlight some trends and names to note as well as a big-race verdict. Enjoy the big race live on Racing TV this Sunday!

In the last 25 renewals, 100 horses aged 10 or older have run in this and just six have won (six more placed) in performance well below market expectation (0.69 A/E). Plenty of older campaigners run in the race too, with runners aged 10 and upwards making up 31% of the runners in the past 25 years while seven of the 17 currently engaged fall into this bracket.

Given the unique nature of this race over a marathon distance at such an idiosyncratic track, runners coming back here with the benefit of experience would seem to be at an advantage yet this doesn’t seem to be borne out on closer inspection.

Since 1997, 47 horses who have previously run in the race have returned for another go and only three have won (-£31 to level stakes, 0.66 A/E). Similarly, horses who have run in any race at Downpatrick before running in this don’t seem to be at a particular advantage. Definite Plan and Space Cadet are the two current entries who have previously run in this race.

This is a staying test and plenty currently engaged this year – such as National Hunt Chase contender Fakiera and most of the Gordon Elliott runners – have form over distances in and around this 3m4f distance.

Yet runners who have contested three miles or more on their previous start have supplied less winners than expected, posting 12 winners from 186 runners (-£72.87, 0.59 A/E).

Horses that ran over 2m7f or less on their most recent outing have won 13 times from 134 attempts, for 52% of the winners from 42% of the total runners. Eight of the last 10 winners ran over the shorter distance, and seven of those previously ran over 2m4f to an extended 2m5f. Three of the last 10 winners ran over an intermediate trip at Leopardstown (16% strike-rate, +£5.50, 1.65 A/E).

Malina Girl, Eurobot, My Design and Temptationinmilan are the sole entries this time to have run over less than three miles on their latest start, while Malina Girl won over an intermediate trip at Leopardstown.

Age: 6 Trainer: Gavin Cromwell

While yet to race over this far, the extra distance should be within her compass and she can additionally improve for it.

Her sire Malinas is a strong stamina influence and the way in which she stuck to her task in a very competitive handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival last time despite never finding a real jumping rhythm suggested she would have more to offer at staying trips. Her close third over 3m1f at Cheltenham in November came in a race run in a good time and that has worked since out well, too.

Gavin Cromwell had the winner and the third from two runners in this race last year and she is expected to go well.

Age: 8 Trainer: Brian Hamilton

With some higher-rated chasers in this race with high-class handicap form, Archies Charm is more of the traditional mid-120s type that has fared well in this race in recent years and he could have more to offer faced with this test.

He's bumped into some more than decent rivals this season – Angels Dawn and Seddon on his last two starts – while he was just beaten by the 120-rated Final Orders at Down Royal in November, who now has a mark around 30lb higher.

Archies Charm is a winner of his sole start at this track and it’s conceivable that this prominent racer can show up well for a long way, while local trainer Brian Hamilton has only run one in this race in the last 25 years but Chief Oscar did the business back in 2010.

Age: 8 Trainer: Dermot McLoughlin

Bryan Cooper’s final winner of a distinguished riding career earlier this month, Wa Wa could be interesting here back over fences after proving progressive on his last two starts over hurdles, beating a total of 38 rivals and in easy style at Navan and Leopardstown in recent weeks.

Wa Wa is lightly-raced for his age and has a nice racing weight of 10st 10lb, with runners in this race carrying up to 10st 12lb in the last 25 years proving profitable to follow (16 wins and 18 placed from 127 runners, +£14.30, 1.15 A/E).

The Gordon Elliott pair Fakiera and particularly Punitive are respected after contesting Cheltenham Festival races and good staying handicaps earlier in the season, but while these are calmer waters their profiles are not pointing upwards and they've had busy recent schedules. Big weights have traditionally proven hard to carry to success in this race and the answer might lie a little lower in the handicap.

MALINA GIRL never got into a rhythm at Leopardstown last time, but she is a sound jumper who is likely to improve for contesting this extended distance for the first time. Her overall profile is one of the more appealing ones here glancing at those of recent winners and it's conceivable that this has been the plan for last season's winning yard.