Kentucky Derby: Rachel Candelora's runner-by-runner guide and tip

The brother of last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage, he has won three of his six starts including the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park in March. He disappointed last time out in the Blue Grass Stakes when he failed to show his usual early speed. Before the post position draw his trainer Danny Gargan stated that “he will be sent” and he subsequentially drew one, which traditionally is the worst post position for a front runner. 

The most expensive runner in the field, having cost $2.3 million as a yearling when bought by Coolmore and partners. He will become the fifth most expensive auction purchase to ever run in the Derby. This son of Gun Runner, who himself was a dual Grade 1 winner at and finished third in the Kentucky Derby, has won three of his four career starts including the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland last time out. has a closing run style and significantly he has closed effectively to win off both a slow and fast early pace. Another positive is that he has performed well on a wet track and with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms in Louisville on Saturday this will stand him in good stead. In the Blue Grass Stakes, where he drew post position 10 of 10 in a race started right in front of a huge crowd, he caused a few problems when loading. Gead Churchill Down’s starter Scott Jordan has since personally worked with Sierra Leone twice and has total confidence that he will not be a problem come Saturday evening. Has every chance of giving two of American racing’s young superstars, trainer Chad Brown and jockey Tyler Gaffalione (who is 2 out of 2 on him), their first Derby victory. 

Kentucky-based trainer Kenny McPeek has never been a person who shies away from big races, and with Mystik Dan he is taking a shot to win a first Derby. This son of Goldencents owns a win over the Churchill surface when winning a maiden by 7 ¾ lengths last year. This season he was an eight-length winner of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in the mud, and then had a troubled trip when a beaten third in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby last time out. He needs to take a step up to trouble the main contenders, but if the track comes up wet he moves up the list. 

Another of the seven runners in this year’s Derby that have winning form at Churchill Downs. This son of Constitution has won three of his five starts including the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby last time out. He unleashed a powerful closing kick, while racing wide, to win the Louisiana Derby which is the longest domestic Derby Prep being over 9.5f, putting Saturday’s trip well within his skill set. The series of Derby Preps at the Fair Grounds have an excellent record of producing horses who go on to be placed in the Derby, but seldom win! Kentucky Derby winning trainer Brad Cox has kept fresh and he has been working extremely well at Churchill since. Flavien Prat, who was aboard him for the first time when winning the Louisiana Derby, is one of the hottest jockeys in the States. 

His only win came on debut in a maiden over 6½f at Gulfstream Park. This son of Catalina Cruiser has finished second in his subsequent two runs including in the Grade 1 Florida Derby last time out – albeit he was 13½ lengths behind fellow rival Fierceness. He has massive stamina doubts. 

One of the most experienced horses in the race with 11 runs under his belt, this son of Triple Crown winner Justify boasts a stakes win at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old and has been runner up on three of his 4 starts at three. Last time out he finished a game two lengths second to Muth (the ante-post favorite for the Preakness) in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Trained by four-time Kentucky Derby winner D Wayne Lukas he gives 25-year-old Keith Asmussen (Cash Asmussen’s nephew) his first ride in a Derby. He is a live longshot for “The Coach.” 

This son of Honor Code is the hometown hope being a rare stakes runner for his Louisville native trainer Whit Beckman. Honor Marie has the best previous form at Churchill Downs in this field having won their biggest two-year-old race last year in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and since returning to Louisville has been the standout horse in the morning according to some of the work watchers. In his final Derby prep he was a fast-closing second to Catching Freedom in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and he should get a similar race set up here. Very few jockeys get a live longshot on their first Derby mount but Ben Curtis, above, certainly has one on Saturday. 

Another son of Triple Crown winner Justify, and just like his father is having his fourth career start in the Kentucky Derby. His sole victory came on debut in a sloppy Fair Ground’s maiden. However, he has been runner-up in two Derby preps since, including in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes last time out where he was run down by Sierra Leone. He looks progressive but may get caught up in the early pace scenario making seeing out the Derby trip a big question mark. 

Scratched.

One of two Japanese runners having earned his ticket in by winning the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby. Arguably the lesser regarded Japanese runner with only two starts under his belt and his lack of experience may be problematic in this deep of a field. His two wins in Japan have been when setting an easy pace, but he will not be able to do that on Saturday. The one key weapon in his armory is rider Kazushi Kimura who has been a revelation since moving to North America while still an apprentice. He has gone on to win two Canadian Jockey Championships and has been riding at a high percentage in Southern California this winter. 

The more fancied of the two Japanese runners. He is undefeated in five career starts including when travelling to the Middle East to win the Grade 3 Saudi Derby in Riyadh and the Grade 2 UAE Derby in Dubai last time out. This son of Reel Steel tends to be a bit slow away from the gate and absolutely hates kickback, so much so that they put a protective head cover (hood with ear holes) on him in Dubai to protect him from it. He is drawn in the middle of the gate and is going to take a lot of kick back early so this is a real concern. This year’s renewal of the UAE Derby was perhaps not as strong as in other years and Forever Young did beat a Southern Hemisphere-bred horse and therefore was getting 10lb from the runner-up. Also 19 horses have attempted to do the UAE Derby – KY Derby double and all of these runners have finished off the board. 

This son of Quality Road owns a lot of  early speed and his trainer, Steve Asmussen who is 0-25 in the Derby, is putting first-time blinkers on him. This alone is a worry but add to that the fact that in his two races at 9f and further he was in the lead well into the stretch and then faded late and therefore the 1¼ miles of the Derby may stretch his stamina. He is my idea of the horse who will go under the wire first with a circuit to go, but will not be in the picture when it counts. 

This son of Exaggerator won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs over the one-turn mile last September, and has been placed in all three runs this season including in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park on the all-weather last time out. He is the only grey in the field and is attempting to become the nine grey to win the Derby - the most recent of which was Giacomo in 2005 at 50-1. His form looks regressive, but he has never run a bad race in three starts beneath the Twin Spires. 

He is looking to emulate Animal Kingdom (2011) by winning the Kentucky Derby on his dirt debut. This son of prominent turf sire Oscar Performance has won five of his six  starts, his only defeat coming in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf where he was only beaten 3 ½ lengths into eighth. This year he has raced exclusively on all-weather surfaces when winning the Listed El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate and then the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway last time. Endlessly showed enough on the Churchill dirt in the mornings for Classic-winning trainer Mike McCarthy to declare him for the Derby. However, the work watchers have been less confident about his ability to handle the track than his trainer. 

He is jokingly being referred to as “the other Chad Brown horse” by the racing media as Brown also trains Sierra Leone. He earned his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a gutsy win in the very slowly run and extremely rough Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby in March in which he overcame several traffic issues to get up to win by a neck. Before that he had been put firmly in his place by several of Saturday’s rivals. Domestic Product has been training up to the Derby since. This means he is coming here off a break of 56 days – no horse has won a Derby off longer than a 49-day  gap. May look a big price given his connections (he is the mount of America’s current leading riding Irad Ortiz Jr) but he would have to improve to get involved. 

This son of Uncle Mo won his first two starts sprinting on the all-weather at Gulfstream Park and has finished third in his four subsequent starts including in the Grade 1 Florida Derby last time out finishing in another zip code to Fierceness. At this stage in his career, he does not appear classy enough. 

The reigning Juvenile Champion having romped to a 6¼ length win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last fall. This son of City Of Light is very fast and is coming off a landslide success in the Grade 1 Florida Derby were he made all, setting fierce early fractions, to win by 13 ½ lengths. Dual Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher and three-time Derby winning jockey Johnny V team up again here to try and win another Run For the Roses having done it with Always Dreaming in 2017, who also came here after a five-length romp in the Florida Derby. The niggle with the likely Derby favourite is that he has never put two wins/runs back-to-back, tending to put in a below par effort between facile victories. The twice he has put in a clunker he has gotten hassled coming out of the gate, and therefore the wider draw on Saturday may help, but he likes to dominate from the front and with a lot of inside speed he may not be able to. He will also carry the unlucky Navy Blue #17 saddle towel (a number which is 0-44 in the Derby) but with the early scratch to the inside he will break from 16. Many serious horseplayers here in the US consider him a slam dunk citing the numbers he ran in both the Breeders’ Cup and the Florida Derby as being the kind of figures only a true superstar can achieve, but – and it is a big BUT – when things have gone wrong at the break he simply has not turned up. From his high draw, I am prepared to take him on. 

This son of Ghostzapper is one of only two Californian-trained runners in this year’s Derby and he is coming in off a win in a traditionally very strong prep in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. However, this year the competition was questionable and it was one slowest Santa Anita Derby’s in modern history. He will need to improve on his previous form. 

Trainer Bill Mott has won the Kentucky Derby once before in 2019 with Country House when his horse was elevated to first after suffering interference. Last time out, in first time blinkers, he won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in New York running away from fellow rival Society Man. This son of Into Mischief is another who will need to improve his form to do anything other than pick up a minor place. 

This son of Good Magic owns only a maiden win to his name when he won on a muddy Aqueduct track in March. He then came out to finish second in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial chasing the winner in vain at an unconsidered 106-1. He has the services of Frankie Dettori for the first time on Saturday, giving Dettori a second Derby ride 24 years after steering China Visit to a sixth place in 2000. Society Man was originally drawn on the wide outside which would have been a better position for Frankie to be able to manoeuvre him into a decent position but now with a reserve drawn into the field and breaking to his outside he does not have that luxury. 

Drew into the field earlier this week as a reserve when Encino (no 9) was scratched. This son of Blame, who was a Churchill Downs specialist, has won two times in his career, both on the all-weather at Turfway Park. On his dirt debut he finished 3rd in the Gr 1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland where he sat up with the pace and held third after Sierra Leone and Just a Touch ran past. Given his typical run style and now drawn in 20 his jockey Adam Beschizza will probably have to use a lot of horse to get a decent position which is likely to deplete his already questionable stamina reserves. 

Since the prep race points system was brought in by Churchill Downs Incorporated to select the Kentucky Derby field the shape of the race has changed, especially in relation to early speed as sprinters are no longer qualifying for the Derby. It seems only right that for the 150th renewal of America’s longest continually running annual sporting event, this has the look of an “old school” Derby. 

My view is that this will set up for a horse coming from off the pace and SIERRA LEONE is a progressive, strong closer who appears able to close effectively into either a fast or moderate pace and he has also, in his fledging career, shown a versatility ground-wise having won on both fast and sloppy surfaces. In addition, he has already defeated nine of his rivals in the Derby. As is almost always the case, every horse in this year’s race is stepping up to a 1¼ miles for the first time and a horse I think will benefit the most from the extra distance of ground is the Louisiana Derby runner-up HONOR MARIE. 

Before he shipped to Louisville we already knew he loved this racetrack and his bullet work last week only confirms that he will give Ben Curtis a great Derby debut. CATCHING FREEDOM finished a length in front of Honor Marie at the Fair Grounds, but had a slightly better run through the race, and given their very similar run styles I think there will not be much between them again here. The legend that is D. Wayne Lukas has successfully tilted at windmills on hundreds of occasions during his illustrious career and with JUST STEEL the four-time Derby winning trainer has a colt who could well outrun his odds and may be worth including in exotics. Horse players in the US will be split down the middle by Fierceness. If he runs one of his mega races then we might see something freakish, but it is the Kentucky Derby – think big or go home, and on my ticket I going to take a stand against him. 

1st #2 Sierra Leone 

2nd #7 Honor Marie 

3rd #4 Catching Freedom 

4th #6 Just Steel