RaceiQ: will Precise be able to take the Oaks in her stride?

Many of the best races, like books, are those that include a stunning late twist which leaves you hungry for more.

The Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas at The Curragh on Sunday provided such a denouement with Precise powering past her stablemate, True Love, in the closing stages.

Few people saw it coming, reflected by True Love, trading about 1-8 in-running on the betting exchanges, having seemingly had all bases covered.

One moment the odds-on favourite had a Guineas double in her grasp, and in the next Precise burst onto the scene and snatched it from her before motoring away to score by an unlikely 2½ lengths.

The RaceiQ data reveals Precise hit 40.84mph in the penultimate furlong, easily the highest of the whole race, and completed it in 11.13sec (also the fastest of the race). For good measure, she zipped through the final furlong in 12.07sec, with True Love unable to muster more than a 12.50sec as she waved the white flag.

It seems we are not going to have to wait long for the next instalment of the Precise story because she is an intended runner in the Betfred Oaks at Epsom on Friday week.

The chestnut, bred by the O’Brien family’s Whisperview Trading, is no bigger than 11-4 to follow up, with only her stablemate, Amelia Earheart, preferred to her in the ante-post betting.

Charlie Johnston, who has a leading Oaks contender in Venetian Lace, was among those watching and gave his assessment at Epsom on Tuesday.

“Until Sunday, I thought she [Venetian Lace] had the best form in the race of those that were likely to be there,” he said. “I saw that live and that frightened me quite a bit. I hope she doesn't come, but it looks like she might now.”

But will Precise stay a mile and a half? Or, put it another way, will she be effective enough at the trip to get away with it?

She was certainly not stopping at the finish at the weekend, although the race was run at solid sectionals, rather than spectacular ones. Consequently, seven runners in the Group Two Lanwades Stakes, run over the same trip earlier on the card, matched the time of Precise, or in most cases ran quicker.

Admittedly they were older fillies, but the first three home lined up with official ratings of 107, 94 and 102. And the mile handicap ran just 35 minutes after the big race was won in a time only 1.47sec slower by a 72-rated four-year-old filly carrying 4lb more.

As a two-year-old, Precise won the Fillies’ Mile in convincing style but you can read her performance two ways. One would be to give her maximum credit for winning by 3¼ lengths, especially with the next three home being Venetian Lace (since third in the 1000 Guineas), Evolutionist (second in the 1000 Guineas) and Legacy Link (winner of the Musidora).

But equally you can argue things fell in her lap as she was held up in last place in an edition run at overly strong fractions. By the time she hit the front in the penultimate furlong, her rivals were grinding to a halt, with all the Finishing Speed Percentages being sluggish.

Precise is a daughter of Starspangledbanner, winner of the Golden Jubilee and July Cup in 2010, plus runner-up in the Nunthorpe that year. Her grandsire was another crack sprinter, Choisir, and not surprisingly, most of Starspangledbanner’s progeny have a need for speed.

The dam of Precise, Way To My Heart, failed to win in nine starts and her only other foal has also yet to lose her maiden tag, over a variety of trips. But Way To My Heart’s sire was Galileo, and we all know the magic he can sprinkle in the unpredictable game of equine genetics.

But let’s end where we started, with Precise showing that fabulous acceleration, created by her ability to churn out rapid strides per second.

Her maximum frequency in the Irish 1000 Guineas was 2.43, whereas True Love, the runner-up, could only manage 2.32, and the third, Abashari, 2.29. Her minimum frequency was 2.29, the same as Abashari’s maximum.

This is typical of Precise’s overall stride data. She’s all hustle and bustle. Lots of feverish paddling under the water.

The trouble with delivering lots of strides per second is that they are no help when trying to stay middle distances. A low cadence is preferable, helping preserve fuel, so Precise is going to make life tough for herself at Epsom.

And, moreover, just 12 days after that shift at The Curragh, with travelling thrown in.

Overall, the data shows her average stride frequencies, on good ground or quicker, have fluctuated between 2.32 and 2.37 strides per second.

Last year’s Oaks winner, Minnie Hauk, averaged 2.20, while a year earlier Ezeliya’s average was 2.24, and that was the second highest of the whole field.

Precise's stride pattern rings alarm bells and means she is probably going to cram in about 5% more strides than Minnie Hauk.

And, in so doing, a filly capable of frightening rivals may just glimpse the dark side herself.