RaceiQ hints and tips for day one of Glorious Goodwood

Moving up to seven furlongs looks sure to suit DO OR DO NOT based on the RaceiQ data and he looks a solid each-way play at the early 8-1 on offer. 

Some will be put off by the fact he is the only maiden in the line-up, despite having the most experience, but that masks the fact that he’s finished runner-up in Group Two company on his past two starts, both times over six furlongs when doing all his best work at the finish. 

Do Or Do Not got outpaced during the first half of the July Stakes at Newmarket last time and was still last of the six runners with two furlongs to run, despite clocking the highest speed of the race – a taking 42.44mph – in the third furlong. 

He kept on doggedly to beat all bar Zavateri, being quickest in each of the final two furlongs. The winner prevailed by a length, but the margin was being eroded as the finishing line loomed. 

It had been a similar story in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot on his previous start when he was only 14th two out, only to end up “winning” the race on the far side and beating all bar Gstaad, who had previously defeated the smart True Love, the subsequent Queen Mary and Railway Stakes winner. 

And if you want further proof that the son of Space Blues will appreciate some extra yardage then rewind back to his neck defeat at York at the end of May when he was again fastest of the whole field over the final two furlongs. 

Incidentally, his sire won the 2020 Lennox Stakes, while his dam’s sire, Noverre, won the Sussex Stakes in 2001. His own grand-sire, Dubawi, won on his only visit to Goodwood too. 

Zavateri is again standing in Do Or Do Not’s way, although whether he will be able to confirm his superiority over the extra furlong – for all he is bred to enjoy it - is a moot point based on my interpretation of the RaceiQ metrics. 

He was much more comfortable with the early fractions at Newmarket and, consequently, better placed at the business end of proceedings. He had also flashed plenty of speed on his Salisbury debut over 6f, in a race that developed into a dash after slow early sectionals. 

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Dorsetheads the market after making all in a 7f maiden at The Curragh last time. He completed the final two furlongs that day in a smidgeon over 22 seconds, which is rapid viewed in isolation, but Ryan Moore, his jockey, had been allowed to dictate a slow tempo. 

Humidity is 2-2 after making all in the Chesham although the RaceiQ Time Index for that race was only 6.4, compared to a meeting average of 7.5, which cannot be viewed as a positive. In addition, the runner-up has since been turned over at cramped odds and he’s also drawn widest of all, so James Doyle may have to put down the accelerator early on if he wants to again take the race by the scruff of the neck from the start. 

One of the most taking performances of Royal Ascot was the demolition job of NOBLE CHAMPIONin the Jersey Stakes. The Ed Walker-trained three-year-old tanked through the race before breezing more than three lengths clear of Spy Chief despite hanging left when hitting the front. 

The handicapper clobbered him with a 21lb rise in the ratings, with his mark rising to 116, and that was before the runner-up’s subsequent decent run in the July Cup, and the third and fourth gaining subsequent victories. 

The RaceiQ data reveals the Jersey was run at an honest tempo from the outset, ensuring the quickest running of the race since 2019. The winning time was adjudged 1.99sec better than par, with the Time Index being 9 out of 10, against a meeting average of 7.5. Only three runners managed a Finishing Speed Percentage of 100% or more. In other words, most of the field were running on empty by the finish. 

Noble Champion was an exception, being one of only two horses to dip under 12 seconds in the penultimate furlong – his 11.66sec was a clear best and he was doing all his work on the bridle. He backed that up with a 12.26sec final furlong, which was easily fastest, despite failing to keep a straight line. 

The Lope De Vega colt had not set the world alight in three previous runs this season, but Walker held himself partly responsible, running him over three different distances in his quest to find the key to “as good a work horse as we've had”. 

There was one big difference at Ascot compared to those earlier efforts that he did not refer to: Noble Champion breaking much better from the gates. That enabled him to get a prominent position from the outset and consequently he seemed a much more efficient model. 

RaceiQ reveals that he went from 0-20mph in 2.55sec at the Royal Meeting, compared to 3sec, 2.82sec and a sluggish 3.13sec in his three previous starts. 

Such split seconds may sound something of an irrelevance, but the difference between being fastest to 20mph in the 15-runner Jersey (2.46sec) and slowest (2.81sec) was just 0.35sec. For what it is worth, the first four home were among the seven fastest staters and that was a familiar theme on the whole card. 

Provided he can break with similar alacrity, another bold bid seems assured. He got beaten over a mile at Goodwood in May but had shown he does not need a straight track to be seen to advantage when bolting up on the all-weather over 7f at Lingfield in November. His final two furlongs of 11.37sec and 11.19sec in the short straight that day were a hint of what was to come at Ascot and enabled him to power clear of the opposition. 

The older horses in the line-up on Tuesday, including previous winners of the race, Kinross and Audience, must concede 7lb to Noble Champion. Had the race been staged on Friday, that would have been 6lb given the sliding parameters of the weight-for-age scale. Every little helps. 

Aidan O’Brien looks to hold all the aces here via Illinois and Scandinavia, who dominate the market. 

The former does not know how to run a bad race and again gave his all in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot last time, when chasing home the relentless Trawlerman. He simply could not keep up in the closing stages that day and it looked a case of him being outstayed, although his Finishing Speed Percentage of 100.79% suggests he was not exactly treading water in the closing stages. 

For a horse with plenty of smart form over shorter distances, it was perhaps surprising that he did not dip under 12 seconds for any of the 20 furlongs and that his Top Speed of 37.9mph was slowest of the first four home. That said, he would not be winning a Group One contest out of turn and Ryan Moore is staying faithful to him. 

However, at the prices, it’s his younger stablemate, SCANDANAVIA, who makes more appeal. 

Three-year-olds are a rarity in this race (he will be the first to represent them in five years) and he seeks to become the first of his generation to win it since the mighty Stradivarius upstaged the hat-trick seeking Big Orange in 2017. “The Strad” was getting 13lb weight-for-age that day because that renewal was staged on August 1, whereas Scandinavia will get 14lb from his older rivals because this edition falls in July. 

It's a heck of a lot of weight to concede, especially after Scandinavia’s scintillating display in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket this month when he romped home by 8½ lengths in first-time cheekpieces. 

That 1m 5f contest rather fell apart, but the clock backs up the visual impression that he created. His closing sectionals were on a different plane to his opponents and RaceiQ rated his win time 2.29 seconds better than par. The Time Index was 7.5 out of 10, compared to a meeting average of 6.2. 

The Justify colt had previously been an eye-catching fifth in the Queen’s Vase, when plenty went wrong for him. He tenaciously stuck to his task out wide after it looked like he might drop away. 

His pedigree does not scream stamina, but everything about his data points to him relishing the step up to two miles. Never mind his sectionals, he’s a long-striding galloper whose stride stretched out to an impressive 8.23 metres at Navan in May. His lowish strides per second – he averaged 2.15 per second on the July Course last time, lowest of all the runners - also points to him being a stayer. 

The one niggle is whether 19 days is enough for him to have recharged all his batteries after that big shift at Newmarket. But you cannot imagine that O’Brien would be running him here unless he had bounced out of that run in top shape and, while he’s a different type of operator to the smooth travelling Stradivarius, the result may just be the same.