RaceiQ hints and tips: a Sweet Solera selection

Venetian Lace has plenty going for her in the Newsells Park Stud Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday.

The Charlie Johnston-trained filly will be back against her own sex after fine efforts to finish fourth in the Chesham and Superlative Stakes on her past two starts, being beaten little more than a couple of lengths on each occasion.

That gives her solid form claims and her RaceiQ data suggests she could boss her five rivals from start to finish.

She made a bold bid from the front in the Superlative Stakes over the same course and distance last time, being swiftly into stride (easily quickest to 20mph) and leading for the bulk of the Group Two contest until buckling in the latter stages.

Venetian Lace did not help herself by hanging left towards the business end of proceedings, initially seeming to shy away from the crowd as she raced on the stands’ side from stall 1. I would put that down to greenness, rather than any waywardness, and this time she’s on the flank in 6, so you would imagine Callum Shepherd will stick to the centre of the track on her.

None of the times on July Cup Day were quick, with the ground seemingly much slower than the official good to firm after watering following a scorching week.

For instance, the Bunbury Cup, surely won by a Group horse in disguise in More Thunder, was run in a time just 1.55sec quicker earlier in the day.

Interestingly, Venetian Lace was the best part of half a second quicker than him through the first furlong, carrying only 8lb less (weight for age she would get 38lb from More Thunder at that time of the year plus her filles’ allowance).

In the Chesham, Venetian Lace had again been quick away (0-20mph in 2.24sec) and was in contention throughout, being one of only three runners to dip under 13sec in the final furlong. The way she saw the race out suggests she has no problems staying 7f, as befits a daughter of Masar whose dam was successful at up to 1m 2f.

To digress for a moment, the owner of Venetian Lace, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum, could be forgiven for thinking that Masar owes him. After all, it was his Dee Ex Bee who chased him home at Epsom in 2018.

The quickest any of Venetian Lace’s rivals have reached 20mph is 2.47mph and it’s not hard to see Shepherd being able to dictate his own fractions, especially with several of the opposition moving up in trip and likely to be patiently ridden to preserve stamina reserves. If nothing else, you can see the general 11-2 chance, whose yard have a fine record in this, trading shorter in-running.

Dance To The Music, absent since winning on her debut over 6f at Newmarket in May, on the Rowley Mile, is 6-4 favourite in the early betting, but that looks skinny given the race she won was slowly-run until halfway (the RaceiQ is a sea of blue, indicating sluggish fractions) and developed into something of a dash, where she was well placed to attack. The form is a mixed bag, too, and her time on the sidelines suggests she’s had some kind of niggle.

A bigger threat may be True Test, a tenacious winner over course and distance last time when carrying a winners’ penalty. Her RaceiQ numbers do not quite add up, but she’s a long strider who was strong at the finish last time.