QIPCO 2000 Guineas preview: the inside track from connections

Aidan O’Brien acknowledges it is “possible” the mile of the Qipco 2000 Guineas will be too short for hot favourite Auguste Rodin.

O’Brien is also represented in the opening Classic of the season by Little Big Bear, who is second-favourite, as the Ballydoyle maestro bids to add to his record 10 victories in the Newmarket showpiece.

The 53-year-old last won the prize in 2019 with Magna Grecia and has never had more than four successive years without a victory in the race since he first struck with King Of Kings in 1998.

Auguste Rodin is considered a Triple Crown contender, with the Derby and the St Leger on the radar. He won his previous three starts, including the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster in October.

Like Little Big Bear, winner of the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, he will make his seasonal bow.

However, there are trip questions for both horses, with Little Big Bear untested beyond six and a half furlongs and Ryan Moore’s mount, Auguste Rodin, potentially finding a mile too sharp.

“It is possible that the mile will be too short for him,” admitted O’Brien. “We don’t know really. We are happy with what he has done and what he is doing at the moment.

“He is a horse who has loads of class. We are going to learn a lot about him and he’s going to learn a lot. We are looking forward to him.

“He’s a horse who has always shown plenty of class in all his work from very early on. Ryan sat on him in February or March as a two-year-old and he loved him then. He was showing loads then and it is usually a good sign.

“I suppose we had to see what his work was like and if anyone wasn’t happy at any step along the road, then he might not have run in the Guineas. But everything is good.”

O’Brien has no qualms about the pair taking each other on, as it is a tried and tested formula for Coolmore-owned horses in the Classic.

He is also not ruling out the possibility of a repeat of 2002, where Rock Of Gibraltar upset stablemate and favourite Hawk Wing when the pair finished first and second.

“We are lucky. So far, they have come through the winter well and they have taken their training well in the spring up until now,” O’Brien added.

“It was always a possibility it (a clash) was going to happen. They have two different profiles. Obviously they will probably go their separate ways after this race.

“I suppose Auguste Rodin will probably move up in trip, definitely.

“I would imagine it will tell us a lot about Little Big Bear, whether he is going to stay a mile or go back. It is going to be very interesting and informative for us.”

Given the ground was very soft on his last run, any rain would appear to enhance Auguste Rodin’s chance. Yet O’Brien feels the son of Deep Impact will appreciate quicker conditions than when trouncing subsequent Epsom Blue Riband Trial winner Epictetus by three and a half lengths on Town Moor.

“We were a little bit surprised by Auguste Rodin at Doncaster,” he conceded. “We were a little bit worried about running him in that type of ground – the ground got soft that day and he is a beautiful-moving horse and definitely not a soft-ground horse. That’s why we were delighted.”

Asked if he could split Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear if they turned up on top form, O’Brien said: “Auguste Rodin is going to get the trip – we’ve seen that before. Little Big Bear hasn’t run near this distance at all and obviously two furlongs is a long way in a horse race. He’s only run over six (furlongs).

“If you put them together, you don’t know. Both of them are doing most of their work over seven furlongs and it looks lovely for both.

“Little Big Bear is getting home and he seems to be covering the last furlong well. We haven’t gone any further and obviously the other horse gallops through the line, which we expect him to be doing anyway. It is going to be a very interesting race, really.

“Little Big Bear is by No Nay Never, who is a big influence for speed. Joseph (O’Brien) won with a No Nay Never over a mile and a quarter in the week in a Group Two, so that’s been very encouraging to see at least that can happen.

“Until you see it, you are never sure. He’s out of a mare that it could happen, but he is by No Nay Never and he is a quick horse.”

Moore, who is such a major cog in the Ballydoyle operation, seeks a third win, following success aboard the O’Brien-trained Gleneagles in 2015 and Churchill in 2017.

He sticks with Auguste Rodin, although concedes it would be no surprise to see Little Big Bear (Wayne Lordan) take the laurels.

“We have two very good horses in here, but two very different horses, and they will be going down very different paths after this race,” Moore reported on his Betfair blog.

“I’ll start with Little Big Bear. After what he did in the Phoenix Stakes at two – that was quite a stunning win – he deserves to run in this Classic rather than in Ireland or France, as Newmarket will tell us a lot more about him and where he will be heading afterwards.

“He clearly has a lot of pace but I personally think he will stay a mile, and that makes him a very dangerous rival to all, including my mount Auguste Rodin.

“We haven’t seen Little Big Bear since that Curragh win in August but he has been going well.

“There are no stamina concerns with Auguste Rodin obviously, and he will probably be heading up in trip after this, and he is a horse we have always loved from day one as a juvenile and he fulfilled those expectations with his Doncaster win.

“He is an exciting prospect for the season, but hopefully for the here and now, too. But would it surprise me if Little Big Bear beat him? Not really.

“They are the two best horses in here and the others have to reach, and maybe surpass, their current level, and hopefully they are drawn in the right place in 12 and 13.”

Sakheer “could not be in better condition”, as connections bid to find out whether or not he will stay the trip in Saturday’s Qipco 2000 Guineas.

The Zoffany colt had three starts, all over six furlongs, for trainer Roger Varian last term and ended the season scoring with ease in the Group Two Mill Reef at Newbury. He steps up to a mile for the first time in the Newmarket Classic with owners KHK Racing Ltd seeking clues as to his future path.

Their racing manager, retired trainer Chris Wall, said: “He has been working well and I know Roger has been happy with his preparation, which has been trouble-free.

“He will go there and do the best he can. There are obvious doubts about his stamina, which will only be answered when we run him on Saturday, but he is in good condition and we will hope for a good run.

“Ideally we wouldn’t want too much more rain. I was a little exasperated to see that (clerk of the course) Michael Prosser had started to water the track, which seems rather an unnecessary thing to do, given that we have had the wettest spring for 40 years, but there we go. That’s a problem for him.

“The horse couldn’t be in better condition and we’re looking forward to the day. Whatever he does, it will confirm plans one way of the other as to which route we go down in future.

“He’s a very talented horse, but we’re not sure yet what his best trip might be.”

Chaldean, trained by Andrew Balding, will provide Frankie Dettori with his last ride in the race after the Italian stated his intention to retire at the end of the year. The Frankel colt went into Newbury’s Greenham Stakes as a short-priced favourite, but unseated Dettori leaving the stalls on his seasonal debut.

Speaking in his blog for World Pool, Dettori said: “The Rowley Mile at Newmarket has given me some great memories over the years. Mark Of Esteem in 1996 was probably the greatest 2000 Guineas finish I ever rode in. That was my first win and I remember it being such a thrilling finish.

“Island Sands three years later was also a memorable one, with it being the only 2000 Guineas run at the July course. And then I can’t forget Galileo Gold in 2016. That win kick-started the comeback for me, so I’ll be forever thankful to Sheikh Joaan for that.

“Often a higher draw is preferable over the mile at Newmarket, but I broke from stall one on Galileo Gold, so hopefully we can get the same kind of trip on Chaldean this year.

“The way I see it, the fancied ones are drawn 11-13, so it’s not ideal being away from them, but Chaldean is a horse who can go and run his own race.

“He’s got plenty of speed, so hopefully he can get away well and be right up there from the off, just like he was in the Dewhurst and the Champagne Stakes. I would have liked to have been drawn a bit closer to the main rivals, but it is what it is. I’ll ride my own race.”

Royal Scotsman was given plenty of experience as a juvenile, running six times and twice winning at Goodwood.

He was beaten a head by Chaldean on his final start in the Dewhurst at Newmarket, on his first try over seven furlongs.

Oliver Cole, in his fourth season sharing the licence with his Derby-winning father, Paul, could not be happier with Royal Scotsman, who makes his seasonal bow.

He said: “He’s very fit and well and we are expecting a good performance. He was never going to run in a trial as that would have meant starting earlier, and we were confident that on our gallops we could get him ready first time out.”

Sheikh Mohammed bids for a sixth success in the race, the Godolphin operation having struck last year with the Charlie Appleby-trained Coroebus.

Appleby is dual-handed with Silver Knott and Noble Style. The former is a dual Group Three winner, who was beaten a head when last seen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland in November, while Noble Style was unbeaten in three starts, signing off with success in the Gimcrack at York.

William Buick has opted for Silver Knott, despite having chosen to partner Noble Style when the pair galloped separately at the Craven meeting.

He said: “Silver Knott was a good two-year-old who did very little wrong and was only just touched off at the Breeders’ Cup. It’s obviously a very good race, but he’s still progressive and he’s in very good form.

“Noble Style is a Gimcrack winner and unbeaten, so he’s a high-class horse too, but he’s stepping up two furlongs to a mile.”

Karl Burke is represented by the trio of Holloway Boy, Indestructible and Flight Plan.

Holloway Boy has five and a quarter lengths to make up on Auguste Rodin on their Doncaster run, while Indestructible showed his well-being with victory over course and distance in the Craven.

“All three are very nice colts,” said Burke. “Holloway Boy was always going to go straight to the Guineas without a prep run. He proved last year that he could win first time out.

“The horse is in great form and we are very happy with him. Christophe Soumillon rides and I’m sure he will run a good race. He will run in a visor.

“Indestructible came out of the Craven great. He will definitely improve for fitness and he is obviously improving on the course, as he galloped through the line very strongly.

“We are looking forward to seeing him in a stronger-run race than the Craven was. I’m sure we will get a good gallop and I’m sure that will suit him even better.

“We didn’t have him last season and felt he needed a wind op. Our vets thought we’d find 10 to 15 per cent improvement in him and they are probably right – he certainly ran a great race first time for us.”

Flight Plan, who is a son of 2014 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder, has Burke purring after he was beaten a neck by Dear My Friend over a mile in a Listed all-weather mile contest at Newcastle on his return.

“Flight Plan is a lovely horse. He lost 15 kilos when he ran at Newcastle, so he will improve plenty,” said the Leyburn handler.

“He has been working very, very well – his work has been exceptional at home – and I know Danny Tudhope is very sweet on him. At the prices, he’d be the one I’d be backing at 50-1 rather than the others.”

In a similar vein, Charlie Hills feels Galeron, who won the Goffs Million on his final start as a juvenile and was a place behind Flight Plan at Newcastle on his first run as a three-year-old, is being overlooked by bookmakers.

Hills said: “He’s a massive price and he has got plenty of experience. I was really happy with his run at Newcastle, coming through the field and finishing third.

“He is a horse who doesn’t do an awful lot at home, but I think his experience will hold him in good stead.

“A little bit of rain would help, but it should be beautiful ground by the weekend.

“He stayed on really nicely at Newcastle and we were conscious of a really bad draw, so we wanted to give that away and come in though horses. He is laid back at home so that race will have brought him on an awful lot.”