QIPCO 1000 Guineas: runner-by-runner guide and tip

With significant rain at Newmarket on Friday and Saturday, the ground has changed to soft all over having been good, good to firm in places when this guide was first published on Thursday!

The ease in the ground is certainly going to hinder the chances of those with stamina doubts, although it remains to be seen whether a dry day at HQ on Sunday (there is a slim chance of a shower in the afternoon) will change the ground conditons ahead of the QIPCO 1000 Guineas, which is due off at 3.40pm

Below is a verdict on each contender seeking Classic glory, and a predicted 1-2-3. Best of luck!

Trainer: Jack Channon. Timeform rating: 109. Odds: 50-1.

One of the more experienced runners with seven outings next to her name. Improved with every run last season and ended her campaign with a Listed victory over course and distance where she travelled smoothly into contention plus comfortably defeated Dream Of Love, who is a general 7-1 chance for this race.

Caernarfon’s full sister, Dan’s Dream, was well beaten in the 1000 Guineas in 2018 and failed to develop into a Group One performer, but her sire, Cityscape, improved with age, and there’s every reason to believe this 99-rated performer will progress again this year. However, she will need to take a big step forward to be involved in the finish based upon the form she showed last season.

Stable watch: The rookie trainer has got off to a flying start this season, with seven winners and 12 seconds from 42 runners across April and May. Two of Channon's four runners this month have won, too.

Trainer: Charlie Johnston. Timeform rating: 109. Odds: 66-1.

Looked a potential Group performer when making it two from two in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown last year but struggled in two Group Two contests after that, including when sent off the 5-4 favourite for the May Hill Stakes.

She’s by Cracksman and there is plenty of stamina in her pedigree, so there’s a chance she will need further than a mile to show her best. She was also doing her best work at the finish when sixth in the Rockfel Stakes on her final outing.

With natural progression, she should be able to be competitive at Group level this season. However, it will be a shock if she has the attributes required to win a Group One over a mile on what we have seen so far.

Stable watch: As usual, no shortage of runners (145) from this yard, with 21 winning. It's been business as usual since Charlie went solo.

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Timeform rating: 124. Odds: 7-1.

Has an eye-catching pedigree being by Sharmardal and out of Oaks runner-up Secret Gesture, who is a full sister to Group One winners Japan and Mogul.

Overcame greenness when successful on her belated debut in October, which suggests this Godolphin-owned filly was backward plus had taken plenty of time to mature, and she was a beaten favourite when third in a Listed contest over this course and distance on her next start where James Doyle reported that she became unbalanced coming out of the dip.

It is her latest effort (when sent off the well-backed 8-11 favourite) that stands out, though, as she stormed home from an unpromising position having raced keenly to finish second (she would have won in a few more strides) behind Mawj, who has franked the form since, over seven furlongs at Meydan.

She must have a huge amount of ability, given how much ground she made up there, although she may have been slightly flattered given Mawj wasn't at her best on that occasion. How she handled the dip here two starts ago is a concern, too, despite the fact she scored at this track on debut.

Stable watch: The champion trainer has picked up from where he left off, with 12 winners from 35 runners in April giving him a 30 per cent strike-rate during the month.

Trainer: Owen Burrows. Timeform rating: 103p. Odds: 50-1.

Caught the eye on debut before taking a big step forward to win over seven furlongs at Wolverhampton where she showed a smart turn of foot and scored in a decent time, given she wasn’t asked for maximum effort, although the form of that race hasn't worked out that well.

Has worn a hood on all three of her starts and shaped as though the step up to a mile will suit when finishing a never-nearer fourth in the Fred Darling last time out, having raced keenly in rear. She wasn't given the hardest time there, either.

That also looked a decent race on paper – the winner is a general 7-1 chance for this race – and Embrace is sure to strip fitter for the outing. Will need to settle better to be in the mix here, but she isn't without hope of outrunning her chunky odds if she does.

Stable watch: Owen Burrows ended last season in flying form and although he has made a quiet start to the year so far, he hasn't had a huge amount of runners.

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Timeform rating: 112. Odds: 40-1.

Dubawi filly who progressed nicely last season and ended her campaign with victory in the Group Three Prestige Fillies’ Stakes. The form of that race hasn’t worked out that well, and others have achieved more on the evidence we have seen so far. She was also beaten comfortably by Mammas Girl on her return to action.

Stable watch: See Dream Of Love.

Trainer: Clive Cox. Timeform rating: 106p. Odds: 66-1.

Was value for more than the winning margin suggests when making a winning debut at this track on soft ground last year where she overcame greenness, as well as her ability to handle the dip. Her trainer, Clive Cox, also suggested afterwards that better ground would suit.

She is closely related to Group Three winner Positive, who stays a mile, while her sire and dam both won over 1m 4f, so there is a chance Karsavina will need further in time.

Her effort in the Nell Gwyn on her return suggests she will struggle here as she was one of the first off the bridle, and again looked uncomfortable handling the dip. Will need to build on that considerably to land a blow.

Stable Watch: No concerns about the form of the Clive Cox team, with five winners from 36 runners in April, and a winner already in May from limited runners.

Trainer: Ralph Beckett. Timeform rating: 124. Odds: 14-1.

Showed lots of speed when scoring over five furlongs on debut last year and developed into a high-class performer winning four of her five outings, the highlight being her success in the Cheveley Park Stakes. Her only defeat came in the Duchess Of Cambridge where she finished a narrow second, after being hampered, behind Mawj.

Has some of the strongest form on offer and the experience she gained last year will be a huge help. Ralph Beckett also said “we haven’t had one as good at this stage” following her Group One victory.

The big question is whether she will have the required stamina to win this race? It has to be a concern based upon her pedigree, and her efforts so far.

Lezoo’s dam struggled when upped to a mile, and her sire finished second over a mile but never won over further than seven furlongs. The horses she is closely related to never won over a mile, either, and the ease in ground conditions is a big negative.

Stable Watch: Three winners from five runners in March, and five winners from 26 runners in April...Beckett appears in top form!

Trainer: Richard Hannon. Timeform rating: 119. Odds: 6-1.

Held in high regard by Richard Hannon and was well supported before winning on debut over seven furlongs at this track last year, impressing with how quickly she put the race to bed after racing keenly.

She again raced with plenty of enthusiasm before staying on best, having been forced to switch at a crucial stage, to win the Nell Gwyn on her second outing.

However, was that victory as good as it looked? Angus McNae analysed her success on The Verdict afterwards and suggested that, even though it visually looked as though Mammas Girl produced a brilliant turn of foot, the Course Track sectionals tell a different story.

Her proven ability to handle Newmarket is a big positive, and her finishing efforts on both occasions suggest an extra furlong will not be a hinderance, despite there being plenty of speed in her pedigree.

She’s also related to numerous winners, with the majority of them winning over a mile, which adds further encouragement about her handling this trip. Richard Hannon, who won this race in 2018 with Billesdon Brook, said “they have all got Mammas Girl to beat” when sharing a positive update on his unbeaten youngster on racingtv.com last week.

Stable Watch: The Hannon team appear in good form, with consistent figures over the past three months.

Trainer: Kieran Cotter. Timeform rating: 114. Odds: 50-1.

Consistent performer who raced six times last season, all over six furlongs, and went close in some useful contests, including when third in the Lowther Stakes at York before winning a Listed contest at this venue in a good time. Her previous course experience will be a big help here, and she didn’t have any issue handling the dip.

The doubt surrounding her ahead of this season was whether she would stay further than six furlongs having shown so much speed as a two-year-old?

Her effort over seven furlongs, on heavy ground, behind Never Ending Story at Leopardstown 35 days ago hinted she has a chance of staying a mile on better ground, and it was to her credit that she stuck to her task well under pressure after taking a keen hold.

Connections sound quietly optimistic this trip will be within reach, despite her pedigree suggesting otherwise, but there has to be a chance she will prove vulnerable to a stronger stayer, especially with significant give underfoot.

Stable Watch: One winner and a second from five runners in the past fortnight doesn't cause any concerns from limited evidence.

Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor. Timeform rating: 123. Odds: 16-1.

Last year’s Duchess Of Cambridge winner who also produced some decent efforts in defeat, with her third in the Cheveley Park Stakes strong form, and appears to have progressed further this season based upon her impressive victory at Meydan in February. The runner-up has since finished second in the Nell Gwyn, and Mawj clocked a decent time from the front.

That outing also confirmed she stays a mile, although she is probably reliant on decent ground to stay this trip, so the going change is a concern.

It is also worth noting Saeed bin Suroor's filly was not at her best (due to the soft ground) when clinging on to beat the fast-finishing Dream Of Love at Meydan in January.

Mawj isn’t the biggest, so may not have as much scope for improvement compared to those who have less experience in this field, and she’s been given a break since her latest effort. The fact she produced a career-best effort in February is a positive indicator that she has progressed nicely from two to three, though.

It wouldn’t have been a surprise if she outran her odds at a track she goes well at (she was also an impressive winner at Newmarket on debut) had conditions remained the same, but her stamina will be tested even further now. She also fits the trends required to win this race.

Stable Watch: Saeed bin Suroor has only had one runner in Britain this year, an odds-on favourite who dead-heated at Wolverhampton.

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 126. Odds: 4-1.

One of the highest-rated contenders in this field having won the Juvenile Fillies Turf on her final start last season and is Aidan O’Brien’s only runner in this year’s QIPCO 1000 Guineas.

She’s also one of the most experienced in the field with seven runs under her belt, and Ryan Moore is confident this “well balanced” filly will run a big race at Newmarket on Sunday.

The daughter of No Nay Never does have a bit to find with a couple of the other key players as she finished second behind Lezoo in the Cheveley Park plus was swiftly brushed aside by Tahiyra in the Moyglare Stud Stakes.

The latter contest came on soft ground, so it was hoped that better ground would see her decrease the deficit with Dermot Weld’s star filly, who will probably be better suited by the change in the going. Lezoo has stamina doubts, too, so it is easy seeing her reverse form with that rival. Meditate also remains unexposed over a mile, a trip which could bring out more improvement in her given she is related to some middle-distance performers.

One concern is that she came back “stiff and sore” following a racecourse gallop at Tipperary a few weeks ago, although Aidan O’Brien does not believe that has impacted her preparation.

The Ballydoyle maestro has won five of the past seven renewals of this race, and his charge holds strong claims.

Stable Watch: With 20 winners from 61 runners since March (and another 16 being runner-up), there is no need to worry about the form of the O'Brien runners. You'd be showing a profit of £16.84 to a £1 stake had you backed them all blind.

Trainer: Richard Spencer. Timeform rating: 96p. Odds: 33-1.

Travelled extremely well en route to a successful debut at Kempton in November, when sent off at 14-1, where she perhaps didn’t find as much as expected given how she cruised into contention.

Admittedly, that was her first outing, and she looks certain to take a big step forward from that effort, but the form hasn’t been franked and the time wasn’t anything to shout about, so it’s hard to know what she achieved.

Lack of experience has to be a concern here, too, and this is a big ask to win a race of this nature on her second start.

Stable Watch: Richard Spencer has got off to a quiet start this campaign, with one winner from 19 runners in April, and is zero from three so far in May. His string returning from a break may have been needing their outings, but he operated at a 31 per cent strike-rate in April last year.

Trainer: Roger Varian. Timeform rating: 112. Odds: 66-1.

Has joined Roger Varian ahead of this season and her standout piece of form from last year, when trained by Michael O’Callaghan, was her second behind Meditate in the Debutante Stakes where she travelled better than the winner plus was closing on her towards the line, albeit Aidan O’Brien’s charge did appear to be idling close home.

There was still plenty to like about that effort which also pointed towards an extra furlong being an advantage for this daughter of Kodiac who relishes faster ground, and the going was used as an excuse for her below-par run in last year’s Rockfel Stakes, so the ground is now a worry for her.

While it is probably best to forgive that outing (she was beaten a long way from home), it is a concern that it came at Newmarket. She also began to hang left in the dip, so there are doubts about her handling this track.

Stable Watch: With just six 6 winners from 50 runners since March, this has been Varian's slowest start to a season since 2015 when he will have had fewer horses (6 wins from 42 runners). He's had 24 runners since his last winner, on April 12. However, he's had plenty hit the post in this period (8 seconds), so I wouldn't panic too much.

Trainer: Ben Pauling. Timeform rating: 111. Odds: 66-1.

A rapid improver for Harry Dunlop last year winning four of her seven starts, and showed she has a touch of class when landing the May Hill Stakes at odds of 40-1. She might have just handled the give underfoot best on that occasion, especially as some of the leading protagonists ran below par, and Polly Pott was unable to land a blow in Group One company on a quicker surface next time out.

Ben Pauling enjoyed a successful campaign during the 2022-23 Jumps season and has given his new recruit a couple of racecourse gallops ahead of Newmarket, so she shouldn’t lack for fitness on her first outing of the season.

The ground has deteriorated, so a case could be made for her on the form of her May Hill win, especially with the likelihood of further improvement, although she will still be relying on a few to underperform to be in the mix.

Stable Watch: Leading Jumps trainer Ben Pauling has failed to record a winner from 18 runners over obstacles in the past fortnight. However, it is easy to overlook that given it was the end of the season, and he has enjoyed a hugely successful campaign overall, with consistent results each month during the 2022-23 Jumps season.

Trainer: Richard Hannon. Timeform rating: 101p. Odds: 33-1.

Showed a good attitude to score on debut, over five furlongs, at this track last year in a race that has thrown up plenty of winners since.

It was a shame we didn’t see her for over a year following that outing and she returned to finish third at this venue last month (watch above) where she looked in need of the run.

Should strip much fitter now, and she does, at least, have valuable course experience, but it is hard to make a case for her in a race of this nature on what we have seen.

Stable Watch: See Mammas Girl.

Trainer: Kevin Ryan. Timeform rating: 113. Odds: 66-1.

Came agonisingly close to winning the Lowther, a race her family have done so well in, on her second outing last season where lack of experience probably cost her victory, and she backed that effort up with a respectable third in the Firth Of Clyde.

Stuck to her task well on both occasions to suggest a mile is worth a try this season, despite the fact her pedigree isn’t littered with stamina. However, it will be a surprise if she has the required attributes to win this contest.

Stable Watch: A quiet start for Kevin Ryan, with 6 winners from 59 runners. However, his horses have been running pretty much to form.

Trainer: Ralph Beckett. Timeform rating: 116p. Odds: 7-1.

Unbeaten filly who has an eye-catching pedigree, with her sire being Kingman and her dam, Regardez, was closely related to Group One winner Scope.

Has created quite an impression winning her first two starts and pulled clear, despite showing greenness, with a rival who had the benefit of experience on debut at Salisbury last year where she also recorded a useful time.

Ralph Beckett’s youngster was value for more than the winning margin suggests when successful in the Fred Darling on her return to action as she still looked a work in progress plus her rider dropped his whip.

Both of her victories have come with some give underfoot, and there is lots to like about Remarquee who is sure to have learnt plenty at Newbury, and is one for the shortlist.

Stable Watch: Ralph Beckett remains in flying form, with four winners from 19 runners in the past fortnight. Beckett operated at a 60 per cent strike-rate in March, too (three winners from five runners).

Trainer: Hugo Palmer. Timeform rating: 115p. Odds: 25-1.

Overcame inexperience in the race, as well as the preliminaries, to comfortably beat a Sir Michael Stoute hotpot on her first start in 2022, and her weakness in the market beforehand suggested that victory wasn’t expected.

Hugo Palmer said afterwards that his daughter of Dandy Man would need time to mature, and she was forced to be withdrawn when refusing to enter the stalls at Kempton in December.

Her latest effort, when second in the Fred Darling, was a big step forward, despite the fact she took a fierce grip early on plus wandered under pressure. On paper, she is closely matched with Remarquee on that form, but Ralph Beckett’s filly appeared to win with a bit to spare, and it is likely Stenton Glider will find a few too good.

Stable Watch: Hugo Palmer's stats have been similar to previous years with two winners from ten runners in March, and three winners from 31 runners in April, as well as a number of horses finishing in the frame.

Trainer: Richard Spencer. Timeform rating: 101. Odds: 100-1.

Failed to sparkle in two Group Two contests last season after getting off the mark in a Yarmouth maiden. She again came up short in the Nell Gwyn behind Mammas Girl when last seen and it will be a big shock if she provides rising star Billy Loughnane with his first Classic victory.

Stable Watch: See Naomi Lapaglia.

Trainer: Dermot Weld. Timeform rating: 128p. Odds: 5-2.

Dermot Weld’s filly is a half-sister to stablemate Tarnawa, so is certainly bred to be smart, and looked a potential superstar when winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes to make it two from two last year having impressively won at Galway on debut.

The way she sprinted past Meditate on soft ground at the Curragh was hugely impressive, especially as that rival gained first run on her, and her pedigree suggests better ground won’t be a negative.

Weld has advised Tahiyra is a speedier horse than her half-sister, so it is likely a mile will prove to be her optimum trip, and her handler has always believed she would be a better horse this year.

She’s also the highest rated on official ratings, and on the evidence from last season, she is going to prove extremely hard to beat if she has trained on from two to three.

Her ability to handle the track, and how she will cope with travelling over from Ireland, are probably the two biggest question marks. Both are unlikely to faze her, though.

Stable Watch: Dermot Weld has not had a winner in Ireland since November, with 11 of his 36 runners over the past six months finishing in the first three. The majority of his team in the past fortnight appear to have run to form (five of his ten runners were placed), but the lack of winners is a slight niggle.

Tahiyra looked a potential superstar last season and if she has progressed from two to three, then she is likely to prove extremely tough to beat.

She's also proven on this ground and her handler had a winner on Saturday, so stable form isn't a huge concern now.

On the form of last year's Moyglare Stud Stakes, it appears as though MEDITATE has work to do to defeat Tahiyra. However, Aidan O'Brien is confident his Breeders' Cup winner did not show her best on that occasion. She relished the step up to a mile in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and it is surely a strong sign that she is the Ballydoyle maestro's only runner this year.

The ground has become a slight concern for her now, and it's no surprise to see her on the drift, but if she copes with it, she'll have a big chance.

Mawj, who produced some strong form last season, fits the trends required for this race, but soft ground may not be ideal.

Here is my predicted 1-2-3, and each contender is a must for your QIPCO 1000 Guineas shortlist.

1. Meditate. 2. Mawj. 3. Tahiyra.