Qatar Goodwood Festival: How To Bet £20 on day three

You can make a case for all four Group One winners in the Qatar Nassau Stakes (3.35) at Goodwood on Thursday, but the bookmakers don’t seem to see it that way. 

Opera Singer and Emily Upjohn dominate the market, even though neither has won this season. At the prices, I’d much rather be with 1000 Guineas heroine Elmalka, who looks seriously underestimated at double-figure digits for in-form Roger Varian, and Sparkling Plenty, who swooped in the Prix de Diane last time and is available at 13/2. 

Elmalka was unlucky not to win the Fred Darling on her return and performed wonders to come from last to first in the Guineas after missing a beat at the start and not looking entirely comfortable on the track, or with the pace on what was only her third start. It was her staying power that helped her prevail and the form is rock solid with Porta Fortuna (second), Ramatuelle (third), Tamfana (fourth) and Fallen Angel (eighth) either winning or running well in subsequent Group One contests. 

It looked like Elmalka would be suited by a longer trip at Newmarket and she went a long way to confirming that when fourth in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot next time, when she was compromised by a steadyish pace, a mile around a bend and a wide route. The sectionals tell us that the Kingman filly came home as strong as Opera Singer in the last couple of furlongs. 

Legatissimo, Minding and Winter have been 1000 Guineas winners to land this prize in the past decade, and Elmalka has what it takes to emulate them, as she will surely be more comfortable stepping up to ten furlongs. That’s likely to be the case with Opera Singer, too, but she’s a best-priced 15/8 (several firms make her 11/8) whereas Elmalka is available at 12/1 with bet365. The gulf in their odds is difficult to fathom. 

I’m also going to have a saver on Sparkling Plenty, as she showed a serious turn of foot to pounce from off the pace in the French Oaks over this trip last time.

This will be the fastest ground she has encountered but her pedigree suggests it won’t be a problem, and that it might even suit her better (her sister, Noble Truth, is 3/3 on good to firm). 

My biggest fancy on the card is Rockstar Icon at a general 20/1 in the concluding HKJC World Pool Handicap (5.50). 

His pedigree is all about stamina as he’s by Sixties Icon out of a dam who won over 2m, but he’s never raced beyond 7f in his first four races. 

Stepping up to a mile can only help him and he looks well-handicapped on a couple of his runs, too, including his return run fifth to Key To Cotai at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas Day. He looked a big player heading to the final furlong that day but probably found the trip on the sharp side, plus was having his first start for four months. 

The form of that race has worked out a treat with the winner subsequently going close in Listed company (now rated 11lb higher than he was at Headquarters) plus the second, fourth and fifth all since winning at least once. A couple of the also-rans in that contest have also gone in. 

Rockstar Icon has a favourable low draw and Paul & Oliver Cole team are 11 from 57 with their Goodwood runners, with another 26 making the frame. 

In addition, Jim Crowley is an eye-catching booking – he is 3/11 when riding for them since 2022 - and, for what it is worth, Sixties Icon was in his element at Goodwood, being unbeaten in three starts at the track. Hopefully, Rockstar Icon is a chip off the old block! 

Palace Green also makes plenty of appeal in the opening Coral Kincsem Handicap (1.50). 

He has looked an improved performer this season, losing his maiden tag in impressive style at Kempton in April before being a big eye-catcher over 1m 4f at York’s Dante meeting when gliding past rivals only to run out of steam in the closing stages. The St Leger-entered London City took the spoils with the runner-up, Align The Stars, subsequently a winner at Thirsk and Haydock, now rated 20lb higher. He takes his chance in the Gordon Stakes on Thursday. 

Palace Green dropped back to ten furlongs for the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot last time and was still moving sweetly when running into all sorts of traffic problems in the straight. He seemed to finish full of running  and would have been fifth in another stride or two. 

He runs off the same mark and, with better fortune, will surely make his presence felt under Oisin Murphy. 

The three-time champion jockey also has bright prospects aboard Tropical Storm, who is a general 9/2 for the Markel Richmond Stakes (2.25). 

This colt has yet to lose his maiden tag but confirmed the promise of his first two starts when beating all bar Shareholder in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. 

The form of that race is standing up well. Arizona Blaze (third) filled the same position in the Railway, while Whistlejacket (fourth) has gained a subsequent comfortable defeat of Billboard Star and Aomori Star in the July Stakes, with the last-named going on to land the Vintage Stakes on Tuesday. And Aesterius (fifth) was runner-up in the Molecomb on Wednesday.

Connections could have stuck to five furlongs and headed for the Molecomb – his half-brother Purosangue went close in that race last year – but Tropical Storm shapes if he’s ready for this extra furlong. 

The Strikin Viking is a hot favourite after his near-miss in the Railway Stakes but his first two races have been on softish ground and he’s changed stables since that run. I’d have him and Tropical Storm much closer in the betting. 

1.50 Goodwood: Palace Green £1 win and £1.50 each-way 

2.25 Goodwood:  Tropical Storm £2 win 

3.35 Goodwood: Elmalka £2.50 each-way 

3.35 Goodwood: Sparkling Plenty £1 each-way 

5.55 Goodwood: Rockstar Icon £2 win and £2.50 each-way 

90p Each-Way Yankee and 10p each-way fourfold

1.50 Goodwood: Palace Green 

2.25 Goodwood:  Tropical Storm 

3.35 Goodwood: Elmalka 

5.55 Goodwood: Rockstar Icon