Who wins the Group One Alwasmiyah Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday? Harry Allwood puts each contender under the microscope plus reveals his big-race verdict. Will Santa Barbara live up to her lofty expectations in the Alwasmiyah Pretty Polly Stakes on Sunday?
Aidan O’Brien made it clear before the start of the season how much he thinks of his daughter of Camelot, who is a half-sister to 2019 winner Iridessa, and the three-year-old will bid to follow in the footsteps of some Ballydoyle superstars, with the likes of Magical, Minding and Peeping Fawn among the names on the Pretty Polly roll of honour.
O’Brien, who is seeking his sixth win in the
Curragh showpiece, is also represented by Shale and his pair face some high-class fillies in the 1m2f contest, including five four-year-olds who they receive a 12lb weight-for-age allowance from.
Jessica Harrington saddles three of the eight runners, and the in-form Willie McCreery runs two of his stable stars - Epona Plays and Insinuendo.
Make sure you tune into Racing TV at 3.40pm to watch who fares best!
1 CAYENNE PEPPER
Official rating: 114. Form in G1 races: 42204. Odds: 4-1.
Finished runner-up twice at Grade One level last season, including behind Magical in this contest 12 months ago. Her second behind Tarnawa in a Group Three also looks strong form as the winner won her next three starts at the highest level, and Cayenne Pepper proved her liking for this course and distance with a stylish victory in the Blandford Stakes in September. It is probably best to forgive her effort at the Breeders’ Cup given she had a bad draw, and looked in need of the outing on her return this year on unfavourable ground. Ought to be back to her best with that run under her belt and is the one to beat on ratings.
2 EPONA PLAYS
Official rating: 110. Form in G1 races: --. Odds: 11-2.
Consistent performer who has taken her form to another level this year, including when an impressive winner of the Lanwades Stud Stakes at this track last time out. Looked a Group One performer on that occasion, and a repeat of that effort would put her in the mix here, although this represents a different test on better ground against stronger opposition. The extra couple of furlongs won’t be an issue, though, and her trainer and jockey remain in fine form, so is one for the shortlist.
3 INSINUENDO
Official rating: 104. Form in G1 races: --. Odds: 16-1.
Four-year-old who has only had three starts and took a big step forward to win the Blue Wind Stakes last time out. Showed a good attitude there, and the runner-up has landed a Group Three since. Clearly has plenty of ability and is worth a try at this level, but her trainer looks to hold stronger claims with Epona Plays.
4 SILENCE PLEASE
Official rating: 104. Form in G1 races: 4. Odds: 20-1.
Listed winner who produced some respectable efforts in defeat last season and was not beaten far in a German Group One in August, her first attempt at the highest level. Failed to sparkle on her seasonal reappearance at York, but quickly bounced back to form in the Munster Oaks when second to an improving rival. Even a reproduction of her best efforts would leave her with a bit to find here, and first-time cheekpieces need to bring out more improvement in her. She also looks Jessica Harrington's second string on paper.
5 THUNDERING NIGHTS
Official rating: 110. Form in G1 races: 7. Odds: 4-1.
Progressed nicely last season, although was no match for Cayenne Pepper in the Blandford Stakes, and also disappointed on her first attempt at this level on Champions Day. However, her narrow defeat behind Broome, who had the benefit of a recent run, on her return is arguably the strongest piece of form on offer here this season, and she backed that effort up when beaten a nose in a Belmont Grade Two in June. A repeat of either of those two efforts would be good enough to go close, and she looks to have improved again this year. She has also shown a liking for the Curragh, and there's lots to like about her chances.
6 OODNADATTA
Official rating: 107. Form in G1 races: 39. Odds: 25-1.
Was no match for Shale on a couple of occasions last season, although both of those efforts were over seven furlongs, and she shaped as though this sort of trip would suit on both occasions. Her breeding also suggests this trip will be within range and it is easy to forgive her effort at the Breeders’ Cup on her final outing. However, it is a concern she hasn’t had a prep run and although she is sure to have more to offer this season, she meets race-fit rivals of the highest calibre here.
7 SANTA BARBARA
Official rating: 108. Form in G1 races: 45. Odds: 3-1.
Was described as “looking like a five-year-old colt” by Aidan O’Brien before the start of the season and shaped with promise, despite failing to meet her lofty expectations, in the Guineas and Oaks on her past two outings. However, she showed her inexperience in the former contest, and failed to stay the trip in the latter after travelling well into the race, so the drop back to ten furlongs is a positive. With just three runs under her belt, and her powerful connections holding her in high regard, it is unlikely we have seen the best of her yet, although she does need to raise her game to defeat older rivals here.
8 SHALE
Official rating: 109. Form in G1 races: 160. Odds: 16-1.
A leading two-year-old last season, with her victory in the Group One Moyglare Stud Stakes at this track being the highlight. It was a shade disappointing she couldn’t land a blow on her return to action this season, but connections made it clear beforehand that she is likely to need the run and it is best to put a line through her Royal Ascot run on heavy ground. Has attracted support and it would not be a surprise if she bounces back here, despite the fact she does have a bit to prove now. This will also be her first start over further than a mile and, being by Galileo, the extra distance can only be a positive.
Big-race verdict:
This is a fascinating renewal of the Alwasmiyah Pretty Polly Stakes and, despite Santa Barbara being held in high regard by the Ballydoyle team, she looks a shade short on the form she has shown in two starts this season. She also carried her head awkwardly under pressure in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas and faces strong opposition here.
Epona Plays is improving and she looked up to this grade when impressing last time out. Both of her victories this season have been on soft ground though, and she needs to prove she can continue her progression on faster ground. She also had the run of the race last time out, although with no other confirmed front-runner in the line-up, there is a chance she could gain an easy lead again.
Thundering Nights looks to have progressed again this season and the form of her effort in the Alleged Stakes looks strong. She was no match for CAYENNE PEPPER in the Blandford Stakes last season over this course and distance, though, and I expect Jessica Harrington’s filly to take the beating here.
Admittedly, she was better positioned than Thundering Nights in that contest, but she was the best filly on the day and it would be no surprise if she also takes another step forward this season.
Harrington said her daughter of Australia had “strengthened up” this year before her seasonal return where testing ground was against her, and she also lacked race fitness.
Given she finished runner-up behind Magical in this race 12 months ago, it is likely this contest has been the plan for a while. Her draw in stall eight is a slight negative, but she was drawn in the same stall in the Beresford and she ought to be able to get a handy position behind Epona Plays, who is drawn in two.
Of the others, Shale is worth a second look at double-figure odds. She showed strong form as a two-year-old and had excuses on both starts this season. The rest need to up their game on the form they have shown so far.