By The Tote Team www.tote.co.uk
Chelmsford is the venue for today’s Tote Placepot Insurance meeting, where we’ll be refunding stakes, up to £10, if you are eliminated in the first leg. T&Cs apply.
Hopefully that won’t be necessary, and you can conquer all six legs, with the help of our Placepot Pointers.
Read on for all trends and guidance for the Essex card.
How’s the going?
The polytrack is standard going all round, on what is set to be a crisp winter’s afternoon in Chelmsford.
The Big Trend:
Mark Johnston’s horses are running particularly well at the moment, with the Middleham handler boasting a 45% strike-rate in the last fortnight. Even more telling is that his middle distance horses are hitting their marks on a regular occurrence. Since the turn of the year, 10 of his 13 horses running over 10f or further have won or placed.
GLEN AGAIN (Leg 4 - 14:40) was one of those, finishing second at Newcastle 10 days ago. That came at a mile, having finished in the same position over 1m2f on debut, and judging by the manner in which he finished off that race, this step back up in trip looks ideal.
While CANIMAR (Leg 2 - 13:40) is risky from a win point of view, she’s shown enough in recent runs to suggest she’s a good place chance here. She’s finished in the frame on four of her last five starts over the 7f trip, most recently when second in a Wolverhampton handicap. Having made most, she looked to have fought off her challengers, before one came swooping down the centre of the track. She’s one of the best off at the weights in this Classified Stakes, and if saving enough for the final furlong, is likely to have enough to take care of most of these.
Outsider to Consider:
While she’ll need to improve again, the jump forward Beija Flor showed for the switch to handicaps and step up to a mile gives hope that she could surprise a few in the final leg of the Placepot (15:40).
William Haggas’ filly still looked inexperienced in the finish that day, but kept on well enough in fifth to get as close as she has to a winner to date. There are plenty of mile winners in her pedigree, and there’s hope that the application of blinkers will aid that progression. The handicapper has dropped her 3lb from her last run, and with the assistance of 7lb claimer Callum Hutchinson, mightn’t get a better chance to deliver.
None of those likely to be near the top of the betting in the third leg of the day (14:10) are particularly solid or reliable, so it could be that we see a few of the well-supported types fail to finish in the frame.
Spreading your perm across the race, and having as many as three representatives, might be the wisest thing to do.
CASARUAN finished a close second over course and distance before Christmas, with the race working out well. The winner was beaten a short head next time, while the horse in third scored on his subsequent start. Michael Appleby’s charge has run well enough in two outings since so could go close.
At bigger prices, DOCTOR NUNO and LUNA WISH are worth chancing. The former put together a string of good runs at Wolverhampton before flopping last time and can be forgiven, while the latter hasn’t been beaten far in three of her last four and looks nicely weighted here.
Our Placepot Perm:
Leg 1: Sir Hector
Leg 2: Canimar
Leg 3: Doctor Nuno, Casaruan, Luna Wish
Leg 4: Glen Again
Leg 5: Nurse Florence, Apache Mist
Leg 6: Baby Sham, Beija Flor
1 x 1 x 3 x 1 x 2 x 2 = 12 lines
Select any odd to add a bet