Paul Nicholls: five things we learnt from his media day

It's not been the easiest of seasons for Paul Nicholls - and more so when judging by standards previously set by the 14-times champion trainer.

While the calibre of top-level racehorses housed at Ditcheat is not as potent as in recent years, there have been further happenings which are harder to account for and have landed almost simultaneously, including the trainer's flat gallop being submerged in freak flooding last month and having sick horses after annual flu jabs for the first time after three decades and more in the training ranks. If the current trajectory continues, Nicholls' current strike-rate of 19 per cent would be his lowest since the 1995-96 season.

Yet the trainer does tend to find the winner's enclosure at Cheltenham – he’s trained a Festival winner in every year from 2003 bar a two-year hiatus in 2021 and 2022 - and another smaller team looks set for the Cotswolds this time in comparison to regular raiding parties of 25 and more a decade ago. Yes, the horsepower isn't quite there currently, but it's surely also a change of strategy to maximise end-of-season success and prize money success at the likes of Aintree, Ayr and Sandown Park.

Speaking to the media at his Manor Farm Stables on Monday, Nicholls made some interesting points among his updates ahead of the spring festivals, both for this campaign and beyond. 

“I’ll tell you what I did – I had a little each-way bet on Shearer at 25/1, just because I’ve been doing that for a long time and Olive is riding.”

Nicholls says he’s “not much of a gambler” but said he had this bet a little while back given the St James’s Place Hunters’ Chase has been a long-term plan for Shearer after leg injuries, with the nine-year-old qualifying for the race with victory at Taunton last week.

Lining up at the Festival will be the culmination of a two-year plan.

“I part-own him now with Max McNeil,” said Nicholls. "Two years ago, he won his two chases at Ludlow and Aintree but then got a leg and had two years off.

“We then decided to try and get him qualified for the Festival Hunters’ Chase where Olive (daughter) can ride him. 

“So far, it’s worked out brilliantly."

Nicholls doesn't have a bad record with his Festival wagers by all accounts.

“I used to like picking out Big Buck’s when he was like  25/1 for the World Hurdle – you don’t get nothing like that now.

“I doubled Big Buck’s and Kauto Star and won about 39 grand – Big Buck’s won and I lumped the whole lot on Kauto Star. 

“And the first three winners I ever had at Cheltenham – Flagship Uberalles, Call Equiname and See More Business – I’d been backing them in each-way trebles for weeks beforehand and ended up winning a load then.

“But I’m not really a gambler – that was just being more optimistic than anything!”

"I don’t think there is a lot between her and Jubilee Alpha."

Nicholls clearly likes Just A Rose and, while the 25L Taunton winner heads to Cheltenham on the back of just one start under Rules, she is totally unexposed and “we don’t know how good she is.”

Given the decent form Jubilee Alpha has in the book, that’s a decent commendation and Just A Rose is 16-1 in comparison to her best-priced 9-1 stablemate. 

Nicholls added: “They always work together. 

“[Harry] Cobby [Cobden] will ride Jubilee Alpha because he’s won on her and Freddie has won on the other.

“I think both of them have got good chances, definitely.”

“He could run really well.”

Nicholls paraded his five Randox contenders and, while Kandoo Kid is the stable first pick and will be ridden by Harry Cobden, the trainer sounded very enthusiastic about the prospects of Threeunderthrufive.

Set to carry 10st 11lb, the 10-year-old is priced up at 66-1 for the £1m race but the trainer was very happy with his run at Ascot last week in what looked “a great National trial.”

Nicholls added: "We missed [the race] last year which was good, he’s started jumping really well now.

"Harry Skelton is going to ride him – that’s a provisional booking at the moment, Dan’s got nothing in there – so it would be quite ironic if he won the National and got us £500,000 in prize money!

“Stamina will be no issue and I’d say he’s probably in the best shape he’s ever been. He’s an exciting one to run in the National and it’s the right time to run him in it. We’ve trained him for it all year.” 

On Bravemansgame, another of his Grand National contenders, Nicholls said: “I think the owner is quite keen on James Reveley to ride him if he’s free, but that’s not been set in stone and a lot can happen between now and then.”

“I’m very tempted this year to let him run in the King George.”

Nicholls has a formidable record in the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase and, when parading Pic D’Orhy after his Betfair Ascot Chase success last weekend and ahead of a planned tilt at the Melling Chase at Aintree, the trainer gave us a glimpse into big-race plans further into the future. 

He said on his three-time Grade One winner: “I think [Kempton] suits him and he’d definitely get three miles now the way he stayed on at Ascot, so we might do Ascot again in November and go for the King George.

“I’d love to run him; I’m sure he’d run well in a King George.”

He's 25-1 in the ante-post lists currently, with defending champion Banbridge at 10-1 behind 8-1 chances Il Est Francais and Fact To File at the head of the market.

“In the Silviniaco Conti Chase last year, I think [Pic D’Orhy] gave weight against Banbridge and only just got beat,” said Nicholls. “That’s turned out to be red-hot form now.”

No Drama This End is set for the Weatherbys Champion Bumper and, while Nicholls stressed that whatever he does at the Festival next month will not define his future as a smart novice hurdler for next season, it was interesting to hear the trainer say that this one was “pretty well on a par” with Captain Teague, who finished third in this race two seasons ago before landing Grade One honours over hurdles in his novice campaign. 

While the grey doesn’t show much at home, Nicholls relayed details of a gallop before that impressive Rules debut at Warwick which possibly adds a bit more ballast to the reputation and substance of this once-raced winner ahead of Cheltenham.

“As long as ther ground is soft, he is going to run and he will run well,” says Nicholls. 

“He won’t worry about the occasion either – he’s very laidback.”

Asked if he was taken aback by the manner of the Warwick win, Nicholls said: “What took me by surprise was the gallop at Wincanton. 

“We took him there and had a gallop about three weeks before the Warwick race and I was very pleasantly surprised about how well he went on the track.

“He went incredibly well, he’s followed them round and went past virtually everything.

“He travelled well at Warwick and looks one of the best UK horses for that race.” 

No Drama This End is currently 12-1 for the race and looks on course to be only the third Nicholls contender in the Champion Bumper to off at single figures since 2008.