Paddy Power Cotswold Chase: guide and a 6/1 tip

Four Paddy Power Cotswold Chase winners have subsequently gone on to glory in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup but the odds look loaded against Saturday’s edition yielding a fifth.

None of the six runners in the mix for the £125,000 feature at Cheltenham are quoted shorter than 33/1 to win chasing’s blue riband in March.

But keep in mind that this race can also belatedly yield Grand National clues. West Tip (1985), Neptune Collonges (2011) and Many Clouds (2015) scored at Aintree the year after their Cheltenham triumphs.

The going on Monday was described as good to soft (soft in places) with something of a mixed week ahead. Here’s a closer look at the possible runners.

Trainer: Lucinda Russell. Gold Cup odds:  66/1. Saturday odds: 5/1.

Seeks to become the first back-to-back winner. Established as among the best staying chasers around despite his clumsy nature, at least until this season. He chased home L’Homme Presse in the 2022 Brown Advisory here and won this race in tenacious fashion 12 months ago before putting up a bold show in the Gold Cup – still being in the lead when falling six out. Ahoy Senor showed that experience had left no mark when subsequently making Shishkin pull out all the stops at Aintree but his two lacklustre efforts this campaign, when pulled up in the Charlie Hall and Coral Gold Trophy, means that he arrives here with a big question mark hanging over him. I was happy to give him a pass on his return at Wetherby but his tame surrender at Newbury was more troubling, for all that he apparaently returned home with a sore heel. He could do with his regular rider, Derek Fox, returning from injury and his yard is going through a bit of a lean patch, having had 34 successive losers. 

Trainer: Willie Mullins. Gold Cup odds:  --. Saturday odds:10/1. 

This two-time Punchestown Festival winner is the only runner in the field to escape a penalty as his exploits since September 2022 have left him under the radar. Surprisingly, he’s not entered in the Gold Cup, but is in the Ryanair. I’ve long regarded him as an ideal type for the Grand National but he made little impression in the big race at Aintree in April after a truncuated campaign. It was a similar story on his return at Thurles but his latest effort, when a staying-on third to Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown, hinted the eight-year-old could be on the way back. He would have grabbed second from Gerri Colombe in another stride at Leopardstown, although unlike that rival he was rather ridden to pick up some pieces from off the pace. Neither got anywhere near the imperious winner, who won by 23 lengths. Capodanno can still make the odd error, as he did on his only previous visit to Cheltenham, when fourth in the 2022 Brown Advisory. He finished about nine lengths behind Ahoy Senor that day. 

Trainer: Jamie Snowden. Gold Cup odds:  50/1.   Saturday odds: 6/1.

He chased home Stage Star at this meeting last year over 2m 4f and was having his first run over a staying trip when coming from last to first in the Coral Gold Trophy at Newbury last time. That was a striking performance, and the form looks solid with the next pair home being similarly unexposed second-season chasers. He probably needs to find a bit more to bridge the gap between top-end handicap and graded company, but at least he’s arriving here on the up and is proven at the track. The biggest concerm with backing him at this stage is that he does seem well served by decend ground, with his wins being achieved on going no worse than good to soft. Underfoot conditions were officially soft 12 months ago, although the winning times of the races suggested it was more like good to soft. 

Trainer: Venetia Williams. Gold Cup odds:  33/1. Saturday odds: 5/2 

Missed the King George with a minor setback and would have run in the Peter Marsh had the race not been abandoned, so this is Plan B or maybe even Plan C. He probably put up a career-best when dishing out a six-length drubbing to Bravemansgame in the Betfair Chase at his beloved Haydock in November. It would be dangerous to dismiss that as a fluke and the runner-up gave that form a boost when subsequently splitting Hewick and Allaho when defending his King George VI Chase crown. Royal Pagaille would be odds-on for this race if it was at Haydock was at but, instead, he has to conquer Cheltenham, a track where he has previously made errors and never been at his best. However, those below-par efforts have been in the past three editions of the Gold Cup on good to soft ground – he’s never finished closer than fifth and been beaten an average of 30 lengths each time – and he will have less on his plate on winter ground that may suit him better. 

Trainer: Paul Nicholls. Gold Cup odds:  40/1. Saturday odds: 7/2.

You don’t get many novices contest this race, let alone win it, but you can understand Paul Nicholls’ logic. Stay Away Fay is a stout stayer who jumps well and, even if coming up short, could well enhance his Cheltenham Festival claims while gaining some experience of the track, plus is guaranteed picking up some of the six-figure prize (provided he completes). It will also help connections decide which route to take in March, given he’s in the Brown Advisory, National Hunt Chase and Gold Cup. Stay Away Fay was a tenacious winner of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival in March and he’s 2/2 over fences, digging deep to gain narrow wins at Exeter (Grey Dawning behind) and Sandown. The seven-year-old has got to find a chunk of improvement to match strides with these but his habit of doing just enough means he’s not easy to nail down. 

Trainer: Pat Neville. Gold Cup odds:   66/1. Saturday odds: 9/2 

Last, but not least, we have to consider last season’s Brown Advisory winner, who at the time was making it three wins from as many starts over fences at Cheltenham. The form has stood up, too, with Gerri Colombe (second) subsequently winning two Grade One prizes (also chased home Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase) and the well-beaten fourth home, I Am Maximus, going on to land the Irish National. The fifth, Galia Des Liteaux, also went close in the Classic Chase at Warwick this month. The Real Whacker’s flawless record over fences was punctured when he trailed home well beaten in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November, although he suffered an over-reach that day. His fourth in the King George last time got him back on track, even though he always seemed out of his comfort zone that day. The return to Cheltenham seems sure to suit him. 

A maximum of six runners but there is unlikely to be any shortage of pace with Ahoy Senor, The Real Whacker and Stay Away Fay all being front-runners. They will not want to compromise the chance of each other with the first couple of fences likely to be instructive in who does the bulk of the donkey work. Charlie Deutsch is likely to settle Royale Pagaille in behind this trio and will be anxious to find some early rhythm. Ditto Capodanno. Gavin Sheehan excelled when bring Datsalrightgino from last to first at Newbury and will no doubt try and stage a repeat. 

A tricky race with lots of ifs and buts to ponder. Datsalrightgino won’t want the ground to get too soft but good to soft going looks a possibility – provided the forecast is somewhere near right – and that makes the 6/1 offered by Coral and Ladbrokes too big to resist.