Nunthorpe Stakes ante-post tips: Recovery Mission not impossible

The Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes – run on Friday 21st August – is the latest Group One in the summer merry-go-round of sprints, though it sees a return to the top-level tag that the recent King George Qatar Stakes lacks. 

Current favourite Bacio heads the market following a scintillating performance in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse in June, his speedball effort in that handicap a first Royal Ascot win for his trainer Wesley Ward since 2021. Clearly well-handicapped from a mark of 100, he took advantage of a great draw on the stands' side rails. 

When you go through this Group One field, there aren't too many that you would be confident could reproduce that effort – perhaps the speedy Jakajaro's Knavesmire win off the same mark in May would come closest – but this is a very different race for Bacio, and he has to be taken on at these prices as he bids to go one better than the yard's proven Grade One winner Lady Aurelia who was beaten a nose under a celebrating Frankie Dettori back in 2017. 

As you'd expect, there's plenty of collateral form to contend with in this race, with French raider Rayevka shorter in the betting than her King Charles III conqueror MISSION CENTRAL. That might be due to the fine turn of foot that she showed that day, compared to the latter's effort which took a bit more winding up, or a 4 lb turnaround in the weights, but it could also reflect Mission Central's only average run in the six-furlong July Cup since.  

However, I think he is now a better horse over this trip - especially in a strongly-run race -and they should be much closer in the betting in my eyes. He's worth backing at 12s. 

Connections spoke about The Everest after Ascot, but this race appears to fit in nicely in terms of timings, and it would be a much better bet for connections to chance their arm in that $AUD 700,000 gamble against the likes of Ka Ying Rising on the back of a win in this. 

Aidan O'Brien hasn't won this race for a long time, but his winners were both three-year-olds who ran at both Royal Ascot and in the July Cup, though of course it's worth pointing out that Stravinsky (1999) and Mozart (2001) both won the Newmarket contest. 

In regards to Rayevka, she's clearly a big player, but I'd worry that keeping up with the speedsters here may prove tougher; even when she won at Longchamp in May, I felt that she was working hard to keep tabs early on. She doesn't have much experience over this trip, especially on quick ground, and there's no stiff uphill finish here to bring her closing kick into play. 

Satono Reve backed up his nose defeat by Almeraq in the Jubilee Stakes with a gallant third in the July Cup, never far from the pace on each occasion, but he's yet to race over this five-furlong trip. This may well suit, but he's far too much of a risky ante-post prospect to consider. 

American Affair was behind both Mission Central and Rayevka at Ascot, where Paul Mulrennan fought him to settle; his scintillating win in the King George Stakes last week, where he was allowed to bowl along (in a change to the tactics that saw him excel last season) encouraged a full return to form. I see no good reason why he won't reproduce that at a course he runs well, and he makes most appeal of those at single-figure prices. 

The list of horses behind Jim Goldie's stable star in the King George includes Rumstar (second), Time For Sandals (third), Asfoora (fourth), Jm Jungle (fifth), Partisan Hero (seventh), Night Raider (10th), Jakajaro (11th), Brussels (12th) and Azure Angel (last of 15). 

Of those, I'd be most prepared to give another chance to Karl Burke’s runner. 

Night Raider looked a much improved sprinter for a gelding operation at the end of last year when winning the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and Temple Stakes at Haydock. He then fared well on arguably the wrong side of the track when 10th in the King Charles II, though he was only beaten by two and a half lengths. 

At Goodwood, he missed the break slightly and that seemed to put him on the back foot early, and he didn't seem able to find his long stride when asked to close. It's also worth remembering that he was racing under a 3 lb penalty. 

Now back on this more conventional, flat track, I think last year's fourth can take a step back in the right direction. He's 16s with one bookie but a more general 12-1 chance and I think that looks a little too big. 

However, there's an argument to say that last year's Nunthorpe – which saw Asfoora fend off 100-1 chance Ain't Nobody and Frost At Dawn, with Night Raider, Rumstar and Jm Jungle the next three home – wasn't a vintage renewal. 

Instead, then, I'm looking to last month's Group Two Sapphire Stakes won by Cover Up as a key piece of form. Though placed horses Jakajaro and Partisan Hero have both been beaten since, I thought it looked a solid race, with the favourite ROSY AFFAIR slightly hampered at key stages – firstly at the start, and then when trying to come with an effort two out. To me, she rates much better than the bare result.

The George Boughey-trained mare had previously been a head second to last week's winner Flora Of Bermuda on her reappearance at Newmarket, before winning a listed race at Haydock. Both races came over six furlongs, but she showed sharp pace each time, and duly coped well with the drop to five when a career-best fourth in the King Charles III. 

The setup of this race looks ideal, and she looks capable of following in Asfoora's footsteps in a race that has been won by lots of speedy mares – including the likes of Highfield Princess (2022), Marsha (2017), Mecca's Angel (2015, 2016) to name just a few. 

The speedy two-year-old Pershaada may well get there in a few years, but despite the big chunk of weight she receives, it's the three-year-older Rosy Affair who has stronger credentials. Back her at 20-1. 

Nunthorpe Stakes: MISSION CENTRAL at 12-1 (General). 

 Nunthorpe Stakes: ROSY AFFAIR at 20-1 (General). 

Juddmonte International Stakes: ROYAL CHAMPION each-way at 50-1 (General).