Racing can at times resemble a giant game of Snakes and Ladders.
The fortunes of horses can rise and fall in an instant, as highlighted by Willie Mullins’ two contenders for the Ladbrokes Trophy at
Newbury on Saturday.
This time two years ago,
Yorkhill was up near the top of the tree and seemed to have the game cracked. His connections were so in awe of his powers that it seemed their only dilemma with him was whether to win a Gold Cup or Champion Hurdle.
"The Skeltons will be watching this with their eyes closed" - watch what our experts made of Cabaret Queen's Munster National triumph
Since then, though, he has slid back down the pack, achieving only one minor win since his Cheltenham Festival triumph in 2017. Punters have lost faith and as a consequence he is available at 25-1 with the sponsors to win this weekend’s feature, for which 26 remain in the mix after the latest forfeit stage.
By contrast,
Cabaret Queen, the likely mount of Paul Townend, is zooming in the opposite direction.
Formerly trained by Dan Skelton, she changed hands for just £13,000 in May when she had an official rating of just 122 and a reputation for being a sketchy jumper.
However, Mullins has a reputation for rolling double sixes with similar types and the syndicate-owned mare looked transformed when routing the opposition in the Munster National last month.
Her rating has soared to 146, but she is only 7-1 to emulate Total Recall, who also easily won the Munster National off a favourable mark before landing the Ladbrokes Trophy for Mullins a couple of year ago.
“She totally surprised me at Limerick,” Mullins admitted. “We’d just won the Irish Cesarewitch [at the Curragh], so I rushed off the presentation stand and went up to the big screen to watch the race.
“I’d forgotten her colours and there was no commentary. I only picked up the race with about a mile to run and I could see something going effortlessly in front, not realising it was our filly.
“She got a huge penalty for winning but she’s still in with a light enough weight. She gallops, jumps and stays and we are going there with a good bit of hope.
He added: “I’m hoping there is a bit more improvement in her. When fillies start to improve, they can keep on improving. Maybe just a change of stable can bring about an improvement for whatever reason. It freshens them up.
“She’s a King’s Theatre mare, and we’ve been very lucky with those over the years from the first one we ever had, Nobody Told Me, wo won the French Champion Hurdle. We love getting them, they’ve been good to us.”
Yorkhill is an enigma, with Mullins trying all manner of things to reignite his fire.
The trainer has been switching around his work riders and hopes his fallen star can exploit his rating dropping 10lb to 154.
“He’s come down at least 10lb from his top rating, and going left-handed should be a big advantage to him,” he said. “I think he’s in better form and his pedigree suggests the trip will suit.
“He’s always very difficult to ride at home – and what we have done this season is change his work riders around, and have replaced his regular work rider.
“Sometimes when you do that the horse goes backwards, but we will see on Saturday whether it has made any improvement in him.”
With regard to his reduced rating, he added: “When a horse comes down the handicap you have. to take a chance at a big prize. There’s no point trying to win a five-grand race with that advantage. so we will come over and hope he’s on his best behaviour and that the trip will suit him.
“I’ve always thought him a three-miles plus, horse. Maybe I’m wrong.”
Gordon Elliott’s Galway Plate scorer Borice is the other Irish-trained acceptor for the race formerly known as the Hennessy Gold Cup.
galway
19:20 Galway - Wednesday July 31
Watch how Borice won at Galway
The sponsors have the Nicky Henderson-trained Ok Corral as the 6-1 favourite, with Cabaret Queen next best on 7-1.
On The Blind Side, Beware The Bear and Brave Eagle are Henderson’s three other possibles for the three-and-a-quarter-mile highlight of the weekend.
The weights are headed by Colin Tizzard’s Elegant Escape, who was runner-up to stablemate Sizing Tennessee 12 months ago.
Tizzard also has Mister Malarkey, Robinsfirth and West Approach in the mix.
Clerk of the course Keith Ottesen expects the ground to be no worse than soft.
He said: “We are currently good to soft ground – although we are going to get some rain today and tomorrow, so we anticipate we’ll go to soft and maybe drying a little bit towards Saturday.
“There’s a couple of millimetres of light, drizzly rain today – and it will be similar tomorrow. Then there is a band of showers, potentially heavy, coming Tuesday evening and throughout Wednesday.
“That should get us to soft ground by the middle of the week – if that plays out as anticipated, another 10mm between now and Wednesday evening.
“We’ve started the week with mild temperatures, 10C and 11C – but it is likely to be colder by the end of the week. Saturday could be quite chilly, but hopefully dry.”