Monday tips: Alex Scott has a Canadian in mind

This is not the deepest novice and it is interesting that Richard Fahey has sent his filly Lunar Melody here on debut.

By an outstanding sire of two-year-olds in Havana Grey, she cost €500,000 at Arqana in May and Blandford Bloodstock have certainly made some astute purchases at the breeze-up sales in recent times. 

Whether this filly is another top-notcher, time will tell, but the form her nine rivals have shown so far does not set the world on fire, and as such, she seems like a very fair price. 

Whilst the William Haggas-trained favourite won comfortably last time out, the form of that race has not worked out and it turned into a sprint.

With a penalty for that success, plus the sex allowance, he will have to give Wathnan’s filly 8lb in this contest, and I think this is a good opportunity for Lunar Melody to get off the mark at the first attempt. Fahey’s last winner of this race in 2022 went on to win the Firth Of Clyde Stakes on her next start.

A few months ago, I would have said the drop to 5f would not have been ideal for the loveable veteran Brian The Snail, as he was getting in a frustrating habit of starting his races slowly and getting on the back foot.

On his last two runs, however, he has broken much better, and if he breaks on terms again in this race, he is handicapped to win. This is a winnable contest and Patrick Morris’s 11-year-old has just bumped into one the last twice and races off the same mark here.

The form of his second last time has worked out well too, with the fourth-placed finisher (over two lengths behind this horse) having won next time out. The race he finished second in before that has produced several subsequent winners as well.

A stiff finish like this should also help him; we know he will stay this trip strongly and the excellent Warren Fentiman takes off a valuable 5lb. 

This filly looks highly progressive and was an emphatic winner over course and distance when last seen.

She comfortably accounted for Lady Hornblower, who has since came out and won, and an opening mark of 81 for this daughter of Ten Sovereigns looks very reasonable. 

Prior to her win here, she ran in a hot maiden at Newmarket in July, finishing fourth, and then ran creditably in another decent race at Goodwood on testing ground, finishing third.

Perhaps crucially for this race, she is a strong stayer at this trip at a track which can take some getting, and the favourite Awraad, whilst having some good form to her name, is stepping into the unknown with regards to trip, and the Listed 2YO Trophy she finished second in last time out was the weakest renewal of that race for some time.

Jason Hart is riding exceptionally well this year, having already matched his tally for 2024, and this looks another good opportunity of another winner.

Sam England’s gelding is flying at the moment and, having been raised just 3lb for his latest win, is capable of landing the hat-trick.

Whilst his two recent wins have been over a mile, this extra furlong is sure to be no issue as he did his best work late on last time and he also looks to have a strong pace to aim at, which is also likely to help his cause.

His latest victory can be upgraded slightly as he was the only horse to get involved from the rear. The RaceiQ data shows us he was the only horse in the race to clock over 40mph and he recorded a rapid final furlong time of 11.92 seconds, significantly faster than anything else in the race on the uphill run towards the line.

I am going to give this well-bred filly another chance here as she is being stepped up slightly in trip, and being a daughter of Camelot out of a Dalakhani mare, that can only be a good thing.

She made a sparkling debut on the all-weather in the winter and, whilst her sixth-placed finish in Listed company on her reappearance in May was slightly disappointing at the time, that was a strong race for the level and a lot of Ralph Beckett’s horses were needing their first run back in the spring. 

The ground was surely too quick for her too, and there is rain forecast at Windsor tomorrow afternoon, which can only help her chances if it arrives.

She has steadily been improving with each run and, aside from the favourite, a large number of her rivals in this race come into it off the back of a disappointing run and have something to prove.

RaceiQ data shows us she has statistically the best of the draw here too, and for me, she sets the standard with Rossa Ryan on board.