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Willie Mullins: do the tectonic plates appear to be moving?

Last Updated: Mon 9 Nov 2026

In his first column of there 2026-27 season, Jump racing expert Matt Tombs assesses whether or not the dominance of Willie Mullins can be seriously challenged.

If you tip in the public domain or write articles predicting what may happen you soon get used to ending up with egg on your face. Inevitably a proportion of what you write doesn’t stand the test of time.

Writing an article suggesting that Willie Mullins won’t be quite as successful as in recent seasons has obvious potential to end up looking very silly.

That’s not least because the 2026 Cheltenham Festival was another vintage one for Mullins, once again demonstrating that even when his horses are (even) further behind their rivals over the winter, they will peak come Cheltenham. He won eight races at the 2026 Festival. Although that’s slightly down from the 10 in 2025 and nine in 2024, his average during the 2020s is exactly eight.

If you focus on the top end of the pyramid you could argue that the 2026 Festival was actually a new peak for Closutton. For the first time Mullins won the three biggest races at the Festival, the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup, (all three winners followed up at Punchestown to cement their status as the best in their divisions).

At ‘the next level of experience down’, he also had a 1-2 in both the Grade One novice chases, the Arkle and Broadway, giving him lots of new ammunition for the Open Grade One chases this season.

So you might be tempted to think that he may scale even greater heights this season – and that we have yet to reach peak-Mullins.

Scratch beneath the surface though and there’s an argument that things may be about to get tougher – for two reasons.

The first, and lesser, reason is that I think punters are too positive about his superstars returning this season at the same level. That positivity may be because they aren’t old - those three championship race winners are Lossiemouth (aged seven, 19 runs in total), Il Etait Temps (eight, 22 runs) and Gaelic Warrior (eight, 23 runs). There are plenty of punters arguing that they should still be in their prime during 2026/7 and may even improve.

However, all three ran as three-year-olds. Its not just age and number of races that catch up with horses, its all the training at home – a factor punters often underestimate. The number of seasons a horse has been racing, both in total and over those obstacles, can be as important as age and the number of races they’ve had.

Do the tectonic plates of National Hunt racing appear to be moving in a direction away from WIllie Mullins? (Pic: Healy Racing)

You have to go back to Sea Pigeon for the last horse to win a Champion Hurdle later than their fifth season hurdling. Lossiemouth was only the third fifth season hurdler to win the Champion Hurdle since Sea Pigeon, (Hurricane Fly and Brave Inca were the others.) That does need the context that Lossiemouth didn’t begin on the Flat as plenty of her predecessors did back in the day, (Hurricane Fly was the last to).

Lossiemouth has an electric turn of foot and has been brilliant in steadily run races, such as when winning the Champion Hurdle. In what to my eye are the three strongly run races she’s contested, the Christmas Hurdle when beaten by Constitution Hill and the last two Irish Champion Hurdles, she’s looked much less comfortable and been beaten all three times. There’s no guarantee she’ll have the race run to suit her again in the Champion Hurdle.

Cheekpieces were resorted to for the Champion Hurdle - perhaps the headgear will help her in the early part of a fast run race. However, I’m always cautious about whether a mare, who has been racing a long time, will be in the same form the following season, especially one who has needed headgear.

Il Etait Temps is in the specialist two-mile chasing division where it’s not been uncommon for horses to win who are older than him and have more miles on the clock. Il Etait Temps will be a nine-year-old and has had 12 chase starts so far. Moscow Flyer was an eleven-year-old having his 23 chase. Sprinter Sacre and Special Tiara were ten-year-olds having their 17 and 23 chase starts respectively. In that sense another Champion Chase for Il Etait Temps looks very achievable.

However, in terms of seasons racing Il Etait Temps will be trying to emulate only Sprinter Sacre and Moscow Flyer this century, by winning in his seventh season racing. They were two all-time greats - good though he is, few will think Il Etait Temps is in the same class as Moscow Flyer and Sprinter Sacre.

Additionally, I think Il Etait Temps is quite ground dependent in top two-mile races. He dipped under standard time when winning the Champion Chase last season. The previous eight renewals were won in times between five and 19 seconds above standard, six of them on officially soft ground. If he has to jump at a Champion Chase gallop out of the sort of softer ground he encountered in the Arkle and Clarence House I think he’ll be at a significant disadvantage.

Il Etait Temps would be bidding to follow in the footsteps of Moscow Flyer and Sprinter Sacre if lining up in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

The natural instinct is to see Gaelic Warrior’s brilliant Gold Cup performance as setting a standard his rivals are unlikely to match, especially with no obvious superstar novice coming through.

However, it’s well known how hard it is for Gold Cup horses coming back to the race the following season. The Gold Cup usually takes a lot out of a horse, even if they appear to win easily. They often develop problems afterwards and never recover their form, (as happened to A Plus Tard after his 15l victory.) That is particularly a concern for a horse like Gaelic Warrior who hasn’t been easy to keep right.

That attritional nature of the Gold Cup has led to 23 of the last 31 renewals being won by a horse who had not run in the race before. In addition he’ll be in his seventh season racing. Only another all time great, Kauto Star, has won the Gold Cup this century in their seventh season racing.

My gut feel is that we’ll have three and possibly four new names on the trophies of the four championship races come March. I think punters are over-estimating the grip the Mullins-trained title-holders have on their divisions.

If you’re struggling to see beyond those three champions, consider the history. Since the Festival was lost to foot and mouth in 2001, there have been 24 Festivals where a titleholder has had the opportunity to retain their title the next year. The success rate has been 13% in the Champion Hurdle & Champion Chase and 17% in the Gold Cup.

The Champion Hurdle division is thinner now, so it is reasonable to expect that percentage to increase a little, but I wouldn’t expect the others to – which illustrates the task titleholders face.

Gaelic Warrior bids to do what most before him have failed to do and win a second successive Cheltenham Gold Cup. (Pic: Abbie Kyte - focusonracing.com)

The next tier down are horses who are going to break into Open Grade Ones this season. Again, at first sight Willie looks incredibly strong with horses trying to break into the Open Grade One chase division.

Where I do think he will dominate is the Champion Chase division. Arkle winner Kargese is a really solid proposition (bar on seasonal debut) and loves Cheltenham. Kopek Des Bordes looks ultra-talented but he does plenty wrong. He used a lot of energy before the tapes went up on his reappearance at Naas and tended to land flat footed. It’ll be fascinating to see how he progresses through the season.

I’m less convinced about his staying novice chasers from last season. Willie Mullins’ 1-2 in the Broadway, Kitzbuhel and Final Demand, have a bit to prove. They had the run of the race out front at Cheltenham and Kitzbuhel then bombed at Punchestown. I generally think stamina doubts are overplayed in a sound-surface Gold Cup but he’s one where they might prove justified.

The vibes were that Final Demand wasn’t quite right last season and so maybe he will improve into a Gold Cup contender. That does rely on whatever was niggling him last season getting sorted out - and he hasn’t always found much in a battle.

More broadly, the Broadway form is under suspicion. As well as Kitzbuhel, the fourth Oscars Brother also ran poorly at Punchestown and third Salver was well beaten in the Mildmay at Aintree.

By contrast the Jack Richards form looks red-hot. Willie Mullins’ ill-fated runner-up Gold Dancer beat third Regents Stroll in the Mildmay at Aintree with Wendigo (who was kicked at the start) as well as Salver from the Broadway well beaten off. Fourth King Alexander won the Galway Plate off 140. Fifth Kiss Will was going well and looked like he might finish second when falling three out in the Irish National (off 139). This season the Jack Richards may prove as important a Gold Cup form-line as the Broadway.

Could the Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase prove as important as the Broadway when it comes to horses running in open company?

You can make logical cases both ways about the prospects of the top Closutton horses that were running in open company and novice chases last season. I’m towards the negative end of that spectrum but it’s only a preliminary opinion.

However, what is less disputable is the second, and bigger, reason I think it will be tougher for the Closutton team this season. Willie Mullins faces a more fundamental challenge after what happened last season in the divisions for horses earlier in their careers.

He was much less strong than usual last season in both novice hurdles, (this season’s novice chasers and open hurdlers,) and bumpers, (this season’s novice hurdlers - albeit new recruits to Closutton will play a bigger part in this division.)

"My gut feel is that we’ll have three and possibly four new names on the trophies of the four championship races come March."

In the Supreme, Mullins's runners finished sixth and ninth, the first time since 2020 all his runners have been unplaced. In the unpredictable Albert Bartlett the only one of his quartet to get round finished twelfth. He did win the Baring Bingham but none of his other five runners finished in the first ten.

At the previous five Punchestown Festivals, Willie had won 14 of the 15 Grade One novice hurdles at the meeting – but only King Rasko Grey won any of those three races last season, following up his Baring Bingham win. He looks a cracking prospect but the vibes are that he’s not been easy to train. In the Grade One novice hurdles at Punchestown the Mullins horses finished 681345F59PP.

In the bumper division, for the first time he didn’t have a runner in the Colts & Geldings Bumper at DRF. His runner there in the Mares Bumper finished seventh. He had won nine of the 16 previous renewals of those two DRF bumpers.

At Cheltenham none of his quintet did better than sixth, the first time since 2017 he’d not had a runner finish in the first two. At Punchestown he won two of the seven bumpers but all his three runners were unplaced in the Grade One bumper. Again it was the first time since 2017 that he hadn’t had one of the first two home.

Willie Mullins will be hoping for better results in the Novice Hurdle and Bumper division this season.

The last time he looked to have a weak bumper crop, in 2017, the best finish the following season of his nine runners in the three Grade One novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival was Next Destination’s third in the Baring Bingham.

I’m sure he will have been busy recruiting novice hurdlers, from France especially, to plug the gap – but it looks a more competitive market these days. So whilst I imagine he’ll still get more of the best prospects than anyone else, it may be a lower percentage of them than in recent years.

I’m open-minded about the Mullins 2025/26 juveniles, (my hunch is that last season’s juveniles may prove a good crop.) He won the Triumph, had the second in the Anniversary but none of his eight runners in the Grade One at Punchestown did better than third.

Of the twelve Grade Ones at Punchestown, in the post-Covid era Willie Mullins’ score had been 99989 – last season he won only six.

That’s a lot of results and stats to digest – but I do think it indicates that he doesn’t have the same obvious conveyer belt of Grade One talent coming through into the novice hurdle and novice chase divisions as he has in recent years.

That’s obviously not to say he doesn’t have some top prospects. The much-vaunted Mighty Park tried to become the first winner of the Supreme off one hurdles run since Flown in 1991. Mighty Park arrived off just a point and a solo in a maiden hurdle. He was incredibly inexperienced as a racehorse for a Supreme. By contrast, Flown had run 14 times on the flat and had won the Grade Two Dovecote on that sole hurdles start. Mighty Park is built for chasing and could be wrongly dismissed by some as a hype horse this season.

He’s On Fire won a maiden at Carlisle and then bolted up in a 2m4f Grade Two at Fairyhouse at Easter. He’s another built for fences. The fact that leading juveniles Narciso Has and Apolon De Charnie may both go chasing as four-year-olds perhaps implies that Mullins feels he needs to bolster that division.

A couple of Closutton bumper horses to keep an eye on are firstly, Bentraghhill who looked green when winning at Leopardstown at Christmas. He looks an excellent prospect for novice hurdles this season. In the mares novice hurdling division Even Tho was impressive in the Grade Three mares bumper at the Punchestown Festival.

So where does this leave the question of what to expect from Closutton this season?

A preliminary point is not to judge too quickly. Willie Mullins is ever-more spring focused. For example, these days he regularly holds back what he thinks might be his best novice hurdler to debut at Leopardstown just after Christmas. I suspect after DRF is when we’ll really have a good idea about whether its business as usual or whether he doesn’t have the same firepower coming through the ranks.

More fundamentally, none of this is to suggest that Willie Mullins won’t be champion trainer in Ireland this season or leading trainer at the Cheltenham Festival. I expect him to be both.

However, I think the tectonic plates are moving. My hunch is that the last three or four seasons may have been peak-Mullins.

I’m not expecting a significant fall off in results in 2026/27. John Prescott made his famous tectonic plates comment in 2004. Tony Blair didn’t leave office until 2007. My guess is that it’ll be a while before its clear that Willie Mullins isn’t dominating the game in the same way.

If the tectonic plates are moving – how can we exploit that?

In the short term, if Willie Mullins hasn’t many contenders coming through from last season’s novice hurdlers into open company there may be value over the next few weeks in the non-novice Grade Ones over hurdles, especially if, like me, you’re prepared to take on Lossiemouth in the Champion Hurdle. The Formby 1-2 of Idaho Sun and Mydaddypaddy look promising up-and-comers.

Lossiemouth may be worth taking on this season in a bid to defend her Champion Hurdle title, says Matt Tombs.

As mentioned, my hunch is that last season’s juveniles were a strong crop. Five-year-olds have a poor record in the Champion Hurdle but the world is changing. Juveniles are no longer predominantly ex-flat horses who are hard trained to peak over hurdles as four-yea-olds. Last season the three biggest races at the Festival were won by ex-Triumph horses, (Lossiemouth and Il Etait Temps,) and an ex-Fred Winter horse, (Gaelic Warrior.) There are a number of last season’s leading juveniles who look likely to stay hurdling and one or two could make up into Champion Hurdle contenders, Saratoga being top of my list.

The Gold Cup market looks really attractive for ante-post punting over the next few weeks. I mentioned that 23 of the last 31 winners were making their debut in the race - yet its currently 16-1 bar last season’s 1-2, (with the runner-up Jango Baie on the sidelines for the rest of 2026 at least.) With the Broadway form looking suspect, it may be a market to take on the Closutton horses.

From opposite ends of the distance spectrum Lulamba and Soldier In Milan are fascinating horses who could make up into Gold Cup contenders if that’s the route they’re sent down. If it came up soft The Big Westerner may well be up to the class. That Jack Richards form could be a springboard for Meetmebythesea and Regents Stroll to make the leap from handicap company to being Gold Cup horses. (Some of these horses could equally end up as leading contenders in the Ryanair.)

My hunch is that the best Mullins-related punting angle for the season will be ante-post in the novice chase and novice hurdle divisions.

Inevitably these markets are still embryonic, so we need to be patient to see how they develop. That patience may be rewarded as I think both layers and backers will be working on the assumption it will be business as usual for the Closutton juggernaut – I’m hoping for lots of ante-post value taking on the Mullins horses in those markets over the winter.

I wonder how that will play out come March…

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