Martin Dixon: My best bet at the Cheltenham Festival, and a favourite to take on

Discuss the Cheltenham Festival with any racing fan and every one of us will have a strong opinion on some of the favourites over the course of the week.

From Appreciate It to Kilcruit, and Elimay to Billaway, one person’s banker is another person’s lay of the meeting.

I will leave the ‘stone-wall certainty’ and ‘can’t have [insert horse] at any price’ lines to others on Zoom previews over the coming days, but I have picked out an ante-post favourite I am right behind next week, and another that I am looking to oppose.

I will start on the negative vibe, and in the traditional curtain-raiser, Appreciate It has maintained his long-standing position at the head of the SkyBet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle betting after taking his hurdles record to three wins from as many starts at Leopardstown last month.

Admittedly, his record itself is very hard to knock, and he is undeniably high-class, consistent and very genuine, but I have serious reservations as to whether he will quite have the pace to reproduce his level of form from Leopardstown.

After a dry spell, the official ground at Cheltenham is currently Good (Good to Soft in places) and with only 10mm of rain forecast before Tuesday, the ground at this year’s meeting looks set to be the quickest it has been since the 2017 Cheltenham Festival.

When Labaik won the Supreme that year, he clocked an official time of 3:53:20 on officially Good to Soft ground, whilst a year earlier, Altior ran a rapid 3:46:00 on similar ground.

In Appreciate It’s trio of hurdle wins – all on Soft/Heavy ground – the fastest he’s stopped the clock in is 4:06:90, so there is little doubt in my mind that the Supreme will not only be his toughest task to date in terms of depth of opposition, but he will face by far the biggest speed test of his hurdles career, with a sub four-minute contest on the cards.

Quite simply, I am doubtful Appreciate It is capable of galloping that fast in a two-mile hurdle race, especially as it is also likely to increase the pressure on his jumping, which by Willie Mullins’ own admission was “careless down the back” when he won at the Dublin Racing Festival.

There are other negatives, too. He is a seven-year-old who started his career in points over three years ago, and I believe Appreciate It is open to appreciably less improvement than some of his rivals, whilst in Metier, in particular, I think he is up against a horse with the potential to go right to top in the two-mile hurdle division.

I will mostly be backing Metier, who already has an easy Ascot win in 3:48:80 to his name, and will have no issue with the emphasis on speed I am anticipating.

Shishkin and Monkfish could easily get the write-up here because I do expect both to be very difficult to beat in their respective novice chases, but Elimay, who is set to take her chance in the newly-formed Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase, has had far fewer column inches in the Cheltenham build up and she is one of the favourites that I expect to continually shorten ahead of next Friday.

After arriving from France in 2018, it took Elimay time to acclimatise, but over the past two seasons, she has been a big improver, and has won three of her four chase starts.

I think a reproduction of any one of her performances over fences may well be good enough to land what will be one of the less competitive races of the week.

On her chase debut at Cork last season, she immediately created a big impression by comfortably defeating a smart opponent in Agusta Gold, who herself is now rated 146, in an official time that was marginally faster than Cilaos Emery recorded in a Grade Two contest on the same card. Admittedly, Cilaos Emery was carrying 10lb more, but the time comparison still reflects well on Elimay on her first start over fences and she won the race comfortably.

She then raced on to less testing ground in a Grade Two at Thurles and progressed to win again, this time having Agusta Gold further back in third, and she again recorded an impressive time for a mares’ novice, stopping the clock over a second quicker than the high-class Real Steel in a Grade Two on the same card when carrying only 5lb less than he did. Returned to fences this season, she suffered her first defeat as a chaser at Thurles in the Kinloch Brae, though only at the hands of Ryanair Chase-favourite Allaho, and in receipt of just 2lb, it was a huge effort on only her third chase start.

I was most taken by her attitude in defeat that day when sticking to her task up against a top-class rival.

On her most recent start, Elimay resumed the winning thread, taking advantage of a dip in class, and trip, to readily see off a former Cheltenham Festival winner in Shattered Love who she was conceding 5lb too, and was value for more than the winning margin suggests.

Cheltenham will pose a different and more severe jumping test, but Elimay has looked increasingly assured in that regard as she’s gained more experience, and I think the intermediate trip in the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase is her optimum.