Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham: Notebook worth a look but Champ carries wealth warning

A number of us have taken the time to consult wisely over the festive period. It’s amazing the insight that a hand-selected focus group – who’ve never heard of you, don’t wish to hear from you and don’t even like the thought of you – can provide when asked a series of leading questions designed to reach their devisers’ conclusions.

Lisa Nandy’s done it. She says people don’t like empty soundbites – they’d rather have politicians with skin in the game.

Jess Phillips knows you must be willing to talk about the things that people wish weren’t there.

What a shame Keir Starmer didn’t heed this advice when failing to apologise for living in Kentish Town while fighting all that nationwide injustice via the rule of law.

Meanwhile, as Australia burns and we await the Iranian response to the US’s recent drone strike, the long-feared concept of expanding the Cheltenham Festival to a fifth day has been lengthily debated by those of us living on Planet Racing.

New course chairman Martin St Quinton started it, when he refused to rule out the idea in conversation with ITV Racing’s Ed Chamberlin on New Year’s Day. “We're always keen to look at ways of innovating and improving things and widening the appeal of racing,” he said, altruistically.

"It would get a lot of opposition, but people don't like change. People complained when it went from three days to four, but now everybody loves the four-day Festival. Royal Ascot was very similar with the Heath meeting on the Saturday and now that is their most popular day, so you've got to be open-minded about these things.”

Point of order 1: Many people love the four-day Festival, particularly those such as Cheltenham and a handful of elite trainers who have made a larger amount of money from its expansion. Some, however, regret the diminished strength in depth of its premier races, the facility for sought-after clashes to be avoided and yet a greater number of champions at the same time unheedingly proclaimed and the months of uncertain running plans for many of the meeting’s major players.

Point of order 2: Royal Ascot already had a fifth day in all but name and a bit of reshuffling. They didn't start with three days, stretch those to make four and then cobble together a fifth. My perception is that it also draws upon a more broadly sourced population of horses – I couldn’t write a Road To Royal Ascot, for example, and expect to sleep between April and June – and it does not utterly dominate the Flat season to the detriment of the other 51 weeks of the year.

There is only so far that you can plausibly strain the Festival’s billing as – in Cheltenham’s own words – the venue at which “the finest horses, jockeys, owners and trainers . . . battle it out for the highest racing honours, their reputations . . . ”. Between the idea and the reality falls the shadow. Do we want this meeting to be a bang or a whimper? (Hint: that mewling sound is a 2m4f Grade One hurdle, fitting neatly between the existing two-mile and three-mile hurdles and virtually replicating the relatively new 2m4f mares’ one. And if I ever see a Silver County Hurdle, I’ll know that Cheltenham has become a hollow man.)

Most importantly, the Festival’s expansion has undoubtedly been a great commercial success but at what cost to our traditional fans and with what benefit, other than rabidly financial, to our future? Do racing’s day-in-day-out adherents stay away from the Festival to avoid those bucket-listers and experience-seekers sharing cubicles in the loos but otherwise not moving from the bars?

Are those who almost sell out Cheltenham’s four days engaged enough to return for other days, there or elsewhere? Wouldn’t investing in such sustainability be a far more responsible way for Jockey Club Racecourses to harness the Festival’s unique power rather than merely piling more day-trippers in? It’d be a lot more like hard work and innovation, I know that much.

And breathe.

Back to the job at hand with an important disclaimer. This column reviews novice chasers and juvenile hurdlers who raced up to and including New Year’s Day. Novice hurdlers will be fully addressed when normal service resumes on Wednesday because that enables me to take both the Tolworth and the Lawlor’s Of Naas into consideration.

Also, don’t forget to arrange your life around The Road To Cheltenham TV edition this Thursday at 9pm when, once again, I’ll be joined by a special guest.

On this occasion, because of the scale of events in this division, I’m going to look at the novice chasers strictly through the prism of the current betting on Cheltenham Festival’s five confined events – the Arkle, Marsh (formerly the JLT), RSA and NH Chase.

Let’s start with the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy, to address it formally. Notebook has finally come to be outright favourite for this two-mile event after his defeat of Fakir D’Oudairies at Leopardstown on St Stephen’s Day, with Laurina never once playing a credible role in the contest and being pulled up. That betting is as it should be.

I’ve seen arguments suggesting that, had the runner-up or the mare been ridden to dominate, the result might have been different. Close study of the early stages of Leopardstown’s Grade One Racing Post Chase puts to bed both theories.

Laurina was simply never going. Lined up four abreast at the start, she lacked pace to the first obstacle and made a mistake; niggled along after that, her response was minimal and her jumping sketchy. She wasn’t right, health-wise – as the fact she bled, due to exercise-induced pulmonary haemorrhage, betrayed – and there was nothing Paul Townend could have done about that.

Based on my impression that Mark Walsh would have needed to take Fakir D’Oudairies out of his comfort zone to head the keen Djingle or even get in front of the enthusiastic winner from after the first obstacle, I also find it hard to believe that even a fully firing Laurina would have had the pace to show the way in this scenario.

The Fakir’s powers of levitation had us all staring when positively ridden to see off Samcro at Fairyhouse last time but that was over 2m4f against intrinsically slower horses and we’ve since had it hammered home that seeing off that particular rival is not the most demanding of tasks.

The evidence is mounting that Fakir D’Oudairies should go up in trip for the Marsh (ex-JLT). The Fakir’s alternative is a positive ride in the Arkle on the tight, turning, undulating Old Course at Cheltenham, yet I can’t help but feel that track would be no more a congenial host to such tactics with this horse than was Leopardstown. Essentially, I can’t get over the conviction that Notebook is just the pacier horse, that he’s more of a bang two-miler.

The table below compares how the Racing Post Novice Chase with the handicap chase that followed immediately afterwards. It shows that the leader in each contest clocked a pretty much comparable time to the fifth of 11 fences. Riding Notebook in second place, until then Rachael Blackmore had allowed the front-running Djingle, then 145-rated, plenty of rope.

She then allowed her mount naturally to take closer order but repeatedly guided him towards the inside and out of the eyeline of the righthand-jumping leader. From the eighth, Notebook was breathing down Djingle’s neck and pressing him to go faster.

Approaching two out, as Walsh opted to wait with the runner-up, Blackmore decisively galvanised Notebook and was rewarded with a long, easy leap that took him to the front and saw him bound away energetically. Fakir was caught on the back-foot and, while squeezing up the inside of Royal Rendezvous on the home turn, his rider’s right iron was briefly displaced.

However, that is no more than a footnote – pun intended – because Notebook was really motoring and the runner-up was never going to catch him, bundled over the last, even though he was steadily getting closer late on. To my mind, it only confers greater credit on the winner that he was able to finish so strongly after having chased and then pressed such a sound pace.

In fact, I’d suggest Fakir is slightly flattered by his proximity at the line and that makes 9-2 Notebook a far more attractive price than most people seem to think. It also cannot be underlined more heavily that Britain’s weight-for-age scale is less advantageous than Ireland’s for four-rising-five-year-olds, so the Fakir would face Notebook on 7lb worse terms.

Joseph O’Brien, who trains the younger horse, spoke of re-opposing the winner at next month’s Dublin Racing Festival under what I believe is the misapprehension that their Leopardstown encounter was somehow “messy”.

“I was a little bit disappointed that Fakir D'Oudairies didn't win,” he admitted. “We could go up in trip again, but I'd have no problem taking on the winner again. We could have a look at the Irish Arkle, but the only thing is that you'd be a little bit worried about the ground – he likes a bit of juice, maybe.”

By contrast, Henry de Bromhead had been concerned about the prospect of testing ground for the winner last week. “His jumping was great,” he said. “The ground was a concern but he was electric and he is really exciting. His jumping is so quick and flamboyant that he'll stick to two miles.”

The worry is how resoundingly Notebook was beaten in last year’s Ballymore (registered as the Baring Bingham!) when 50-1 and 51 lengths behind City Island. That said, it’s not difficult to look at this strapping horse and how sure-footedly he jumps and then conclude he was always going to be better over fences. He also hails from a yard with a particular knack for two-mile chasers.

Below these two horses in the Arkle market, there is little that currently appeals.

Laurina’s stablemate Melon has finished second in two Champion Hurdles and a Supreme – and, for me, it’s on that Festival track record that his chance rests rather than on what he’s achieved thus far over fences.

He chased home the Fakir, three lengths adrift, at Navan in November and then got off the mark over fences at Leopardstown the day after Notebook’s triumph in a beginners’ chase over the same course and distance.

But it was a desperate scramble when, after seemingly getting the better of the argument going towards the last with 20-1 chase debutant Gallant John Joe – his marked inferior over hurdles – Melon hit the last fence three-quarters of the way up and landed in unbalanced fashion. In their wake was a comedy of errors from their opponents – including, notably, a horlicks of a chase debut from City Island, who was pulled up. That form appears decidedly dodgy.

The most worrying aspect was that, although Melon had earlier jumped as soundly as Townend later maintained (if often adjusting right), his error came on the only occasion any horse had been upsides, thus placing his jumping under the remotest of pressure. Perhaps the cheekpieces he wore for the first time when second to Espoir D’Allen at last term’s Festival will help?

His trainer Willie Mullins was looking on the bright side. “What particularly pleased me was the way he fought back when it looked like the game was up,” he said. “He makes life difficult for himself but he fought back well today. I'd imagine the Arkle is the likely target. He could come back here for the Dublin Racing Festival and will need more experience.”

Next in Cheltenham’s Arkle betting is Felix Desjy, who won a Grade One novices’ hurdle at Aintree’s 2019 Grand National meeting but is yet to make his chase debut for trainer Gordon Elliott.

Alongside him at around the 16-1 mark is Brewin’upastorm, who’d won both of his chase starts– at Carlisle and Taunton – before suffering a setback when being prepared for last month’s Grade One Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown. Trainer Olly Murphy has reported him back in training and bound for Grade Two company on his next start, in either the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster at the end of this month or the Kingmaker at Warwick in February en route to Cheltenham.

Available at up to 25-1 in the Arkle betting are the mares Laurina, Put The Kettle On – the fleet-jumping but clearly lesser regarded stable companion of Notebook who bossed a shallow Grade Two at Cheltenham in November – and, with some bookmakers, the purposeful sound-jumping Maire Banrigh, who won a novices’ handicap chase at Doncaster last Sunday by 13 lengths from a mark of 141.

The last-named mare is unbeaten in three outings over fences and in her last five starts for trainer Dan Skelton, who also saddled Nube Negra to chase home Esprit Du Large in the Henry VIII last month. Given Nube Negra is said to be bound for Aintree via the Kingmaker, it’s possible Maire Banrigh could head back to Doncaster for the Lightning before, those events dictating, heading on for either the Arkle or the Grand Annual at Cheltenham.

Sprinter Sacre, Altior and Cyrname may have won Kempton’s Grade Two Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase in the past but this term’s edition looks likely to have minimal impact on the Arkle. It was won by the likeable Global Citizen, whom trainer Ben Pauling afterwards observed would have been re-routed to the Champion Hurdle had he not triumphed.

As outlined in the New Year’s Eve edition of the Road To Cheltenham, his time was quicker at every stage than that of Bun Doran in the Grade Two Desert Orchid Chase over the same course and distance – but then the other race was a total farce.

The Wayward Lad field largely finished in a heap behind the front-running winner, who was initially keen following a 64-day break, wore a first-time tongue-tie and jumped soundly but out to his left. This success formed part of the revival in Pauling’s fortunes as, before December, the yard had saddled only two winners since June.

His trainer suggested we might not see Global Citizen “until the spring” because he’s so effective when fresh. I hope that means Aintree’s Maghull Novices’ Chase rather than the Arkle because his form and manner of going very much testifies to an affinity with flat tracks.

On his third start over fences and first since undergoing an operation to correct his breathing, runner-up Rouge Vif produced an improved performance without quite matching the toe of the winner. He shaped as though worth stepping back up in trip.

Grand Sancy was third – getting marginally more involved than on his tough Henry VIII Chase debut – but trainer Paul Nicholls might draw stumps on fences this term while he remains a maiden. Al Dancer, previously an underwhelming second to Put The Kettle On at Cheltenham, is not progressing over fences.

This race burst the bubble that was Fanion D’Estruval – an exciting winner of a Newbury novices’ handicap chase in November, earning him a 12lb rise to a mark of 149. Sent off the 6-4 favourite here, he never jumped with any fluency and appeared to be dragged through the race at too brisk a tempo for his liking.

However, it was notable that, although jockey Charlie Deutsch adopted discretion rather than valour from the home term, the pair were ultimately beaten less than five lengths. He may want further but would need to address his low-slung jumping for a course like Cheltenham.

This moves us up in trip to consider the Marsh Novices’ Chase, for which the redoubtable Faugheen is now favourite, at prices ranging from 5-1 to 9-1, after eyeballing the sainted Samcro in a 2m3.5f Grade One at Limerick and finding him sorely wanting.

Forget Clan Des Obeaux’s reputation-shattering King George, Rachael Blackmore’s Leopardstown masterclass or even the tear-jerking comeback of Apple’s Jade. This was surely the undisputed blockbuster performance of the Christmas period.

It was a classic heads-up: the 2015 Champion Hurdle victor, who’d been sidelined with injury for almost two years after his career-zenith success in the following January’s Irish version, now seemingly switched to fences as an afterthought, versus the horse who’d had the world prematurely at his feet before and after winning the 2018 Ballymore, here sent off the 4-6 favourite. One was deemed a has-been and had faced calls for his retirement, yet it is now the other who looks destined to end up a never-been.

You could tell Faugheen’s mind was in the game from the outset (full race replay below). Although he led at flag-fall, when he was joined and then headed at the second by Wexford winner and eventual 32-length third, Castlebrook, he was unbothered and continued to jump effectively. Samcro appeared fine at this stage, too – lobbing along as the rear-guard of the only trio of horses able to get actively involved.

Faugheen took over again after the fifth but things didn’t start to get tasty until six out, where he outjumped Samcro. The latter recovered with a good leap at the next and even took the following two fences with greater alacrity than his rival. After that it became a straight duel, with the pair powering effortlessly clear of their field in that way that good horses do.

Eye to eye, toe to toe: this was going to be some battle. Only it wasn’t. From seeming perhaps to have the upper hand over the less imposing model on his inside, Samcro was suddenly less comfortable. On board, even as they exited the home turn and made for two out, rider Jack Kennedy began moving his hands, then crouching lower, then rousting him along.

Meanwhile, Faugheen was still enjoying himself. He’d clearly looked deep into Samcro’s soul out there. He jumped the penultimate flight with purpose, while his rival defeatedly dragged his hind legs through it, and never looked back. Jockey Patrick Mullins eventually did so, after the last, and appeared literally to do a double-take, perhaps astonished by the extent of their rival’s capitulation.

“We hope to find something wrong but we probably won't,” admitted Eddie O’Leary, who oversees with his brother Michael the Gigginstown Stud operation that owns Samcro. “We'll have to probably end up with a handicap mark now as he's going nowhere as a good horse. A good horse, he is not. Hopefully he can prove us wrong, but I think we can just forget about him at this stage…

“Whether he just doesn't want to do it any more or not, I don't know. He's going from cruising to empty in his races and, in hindsight, there's not a hope in hell that he'd have beaten Fakir D'Oudairies had he stood up in the Drinmore.

“All last season he didn't scope right. We got his wind done this season, built a new stable for him and he'd been scoping great, but he goes and does that again at Limerick. He's doing exactly what he did last term. Is he hollow? No, because he finished his races out as a novice hurdler. There's something amiss but we don't know what it is. You've got to face reality at some stage.”

I can’t wholly agree with O’Leary’s recollection of the prelapsarian Samcro – as I argued in the third edition of Road To Cheltenham (episode three below), he even found less than appeared likely when winning the Ballymore. Once you’re out of novice company and into the big league, these traits stop being mere detail and start making the difference between victory and defeat.

Again, as argued previously, I didn’t think he put up much of a fight against gravity when falling upsides Fakir D’Oudairies at Fairyhouse and the whole narrative of his existence speaks of a fragile horse who, for whatever reason, cannot – and, perhaps as a result, will not – knuckle down. I hope Elliott does manage to resurrect his ability because that really would be a stellar piece of training – but I fear it’s an unreasonable expectation.

Samcro’s surrender makes it harder confidently to quantify what Faugheen achieved here – or, more precisely, what might have happened had he been in a scrap to the end, as he would undoubtedly be at Cheltenham – or any other end-of-term Grade One targets. While he was tidy at his fences here, remember his propensity to throw in a heart-stopping blunder without warning over hurdles. He reprised the habit on his chase debut at Punchestown.

Prior to the Road To Cheltenham roadshow at Leopardstown racecourse, RTE and Racing TV pundit Jane Mangan wondered aloud whether Willie Mullins might enter and run Faugheen in the Cheltenham Gold Cup rather than any novices’ event on account of him being a 12-year-old in 2020. For a high achiever like Faugheen, the thought process is self-evident.

Ruby Walsh countered that it wasn’t the trainer’s style. When Rule Supreme was entered in the 2004 Gold Cup, he was a second-season novice chaser and had finished third in the Thyestes against seasoned pros like Hedgehunter whereas Faugheen has only had two starts over fences. And Rule Supreme ultimately contested – and won – the RSA Chase anyway.

So, the Marsh could be Faugheen’s chief priority – although Mullins also potentially has Laurina and Melon for this target – so expect a full complement of novice entries for him, perhaps even in the NH Chase. Mullins isn’t as precious about ‘offending’ as some of Faugheen’s most ardent fans. As Walsh frequently notes, he runs a horse in whichever race looks easiest to win.

“He deserves to go for one of the big races at the Dublin Racing Festival,” Mullins offered. That means either the Irish Arkle over 2m1f or – more likely, you’d say – the Flogas over 2m5f. Both are Grade Ones, so we’re going to learn a great deal more about Faugheen’s chasing ability before Cheltenham. Asked to judge now, I suspect the sensible call is to not quite believe your eyes. So, let’s keep them shut a while longer and dream.

Bapaume – third to Defi Du Seuil in the 2017 Triumph and fourth to Paisley Park in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle – is another floater in the novices’ division, looming at around 20-1 to 25-1 for the Arkle, Marsh and RSA Chases.

On his second start over fences in a 2m3f beginners’ event at Naas just before Christmas, he comfortably dispensed with a field less able than himself – headed by Spyglass Hill, 2st his inferior over hurdles – in a race in which four of the 13 fences were omitted. On the one hand, that may have denied him further opportunities to display an assured jumping style; on the other, their omission placed a helpful extra accent on stamina. Tougher gigs await.

Speaking of events before the festivities began, we must send a mental get-well card to Angel’s Breath, who was comfortably the 23-length superior of Mont Des Avaloirs in a match for the Jacquart Noel Novices’ Chase at Ascot. Sadly, in doing so he struck into the tendon in his right foreleg so severely that at one stage the injury threatened his life.

Thankfully, trainer Nicky Henderson has since reported that the horse has been allowed home to Seven Barrows following surgery at the Donnington Grove veterinary practice near Newbury. "A few years ago, it may have been a completely different outcome,” he noted. “But thanks to modern technology and our brilliant team of vets, he is in very safe hands and we are able to save him.”

At best, it will be at least a year before he is able to race again. That leaves stable companion Mister Fisher as Henderson’s chief Marsh hope, as things stand. He ranges from 14-1 generally to 10-1 with BetFred, who might be limbering up to introduce non-runner-no-bet more widely than just for the four original – and the best – open Grade One events.

You can find Itchy Feet at 33-1 for both this event and the Arkle, even though trainer Olly Murphy has clearly indicated that last year’s Supreme third will be kept to the upper distance. “I'll keep him at 2m4f as I've always felt that is his trip,” Murphy said, after he made a winning chase debut against two greatly inferior rivals over 2m4f at Leicester last week.

Back in October, he’d finished only fourth behind the Champion Hurdle-bound Silver Streak over the smaller obstacles at Kempton but had convinced his trainer to make a mid-season switch to chasing by dint of his impressive schooling. For the real thing at Leicester, he jumped alertly – if a little upright – and finished 26 lengths clear on the bridle.

Moving on to the netherworld between the Marsh and RSA Chases, it’ll take more than a bag of frozen peas to put Champ right for either target in my mind. Call me picky but I don’t want any of my hard-earned on a horse who, left to his own devices, thinks that walking through a fence is a viable option.

He undoubtedly had Cheltenham’s Grade Two Dipper Novices’ Chase won when barely taking off two out and sustaining that heavy fall. On Saturday, Henderson reported that all precautions have since been taken to aid his recovery.

“Champ had a saddle on him this morning and was good,” he told Nick Luck on Racing TV. “He was sore a couple of hours after the race, and the vets got on top of it. They did an X-ray, but there was nothing there.

“Sophie [his wife] went into the village and there was a run on frozen peas in the Co-op. We sowed on a little sack – you can’t put them against the skin, because they will burn. Every time they thawed out, we put some more on.”

Now Henderson must ponder whether he wants Champ to pitch up at Cheltenham off the back of such a purler – presumably in the RSA, as long pinpointed, although some ambiguity involving the Marsh could be detected in the run-up to his abortive New Year’s Day turn. Ascot’s Grade Two Reynoldstown Chase on 15 February is the obvious fallback stepping-stone.

Of course, the Arsene Wenger of the weighing-room didn’t know what all the post-race fuss was about. “He was brilliant through the race,” Barry Geraghty maintained to ITV Racing’s Oli Bell. “He just rolled around a little bit going to the second last but I’d say he was looking at the stands rather than what was in front of him. It was a novicey fall.”

If brilliance can manifest as being nagged into jumping every fence or else he forgets, then – yes – Champ is brilliant. It’s not as if he can’t jump; it’s just that he needs to be organised into doing so. Geraghty took an extended look under his shoulder approaching two out and decided he could afford to pop it because the race was in the bag. Champ failed to receive the memo – or even realise it was required. As I mentioned last time, this total lack of self-preservation worries me.

The Sue Smith-trained Midnight Shadow inherited the Dipper, making that his second Grade Two success at Cheltenham’s New Year’s Day fixture in as many years, following his victory in the 2019 Relkeel. But he merited only second place and that’s his level. Deyrann De Carjac didn’t quite look at ease on the track and was passed by early leader Paint The Dream for second.

Despite his mishap, Champ remains best-priced at 4-1 for the RSA. There will surely be a bet against him at Cheltenham. I don’t think it’s Slate House, however, for all that he also out-performed my expectations when winning the Grade One Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.

It may have been that he was better suited to a comparatively steadily run race than second-placed Black Op, for whom my immediate thought once they’d crossed the line was the NH Chase. Having now crunched the numbers, I’ve realised that I incorrectly read the contest as a good test of stamina at the time.

Black Op would surely thrive in a strongly run renewal of the RSA, now that his jumping is so reliable. Even when he gets it slightly wrong – as he did a couple of times when upsides the swifter but more reckless Master Tommytucker at Kempton – you still feel he’s going to get to the other side safely. What a contrast with last season’s abortive start! I think he might reverse this form at Cheltenham.

I would give Slate House zero chance in the Marsh because his jumping takes time to warm up. It’s a proven trait: on his previous start at Huntingdon and in the BetVictor Gold Cup, when he worked his way into contention only to fall two out. Yet take the first fence slowly over 2m4f on Cheltenham’s New Course and it’s goodnight, Vienna.

In fact, even though he’s won over fences at Cheltenham, I’m not sure his jumping is fleet enough for any Grade One event at that track full stop – although admittedly he got in a rhythm sooner than in the past at Kempton. Perhaps that was because they didn’t go very quickly? Or was it that extra experience trainer Colin Tizzard had wisely packed in at Huntingdon?

Whatever, I’m not convinced but we will surely get another opportunity to view the goods as his trainer was contemplating taking on potentially Gold Cup-bound rivals in the Cotswold or Denman Chases – although perhaps the penalty structure of the Reynoldstown will end up appealing more, albeit it’s closer to the Festival in the calendar.

“He wasn’t always like this,” Tizzard observed, stressing how Slate House has matured. “I’m sure if we weighed horses, he’d be a hundredweight-and-a-half heavier than what he was two years ago. He used to be quite light and pull hard.

“I saw him walking round the ring here and I actually said to [his son and assistant] Joe: ‘Is this one not a bit heavy?’ But he wasn’t, obviously. He’s just grown into himself – he’s a big strong stayer, even on heavy ground. He’s by Presenting and we always though he wanted good ground. Horses do change and he has – changed for the better.”

The inexperienced Danny Whizzbang plugged on for third, 20 lengths behind Slate House, having been hampered by the fall of his stable companion Master Tommytucker. He was inconvenienced for two or three strides – an incident likely disproportionately to affect a dour stayer like him. He should have learnt plenty from this experience, however, for when his sights are appropriately lowered.

Harry Cobden managed to curb the enthusiasm of Master Tommytucker – the horse burdened by trainer Paul Nicholls with unwonted comparisons to Cyrname – but he after frequently outjumping Black Op, he started to go out to his left. He was in the process of doing exactly that when asked to go long at the 15th, so he put in an extra step and didn’t get high enough.

In first-time cheekpieces, Jarvey’s Plate was also hampered by that fall but had been niggled along at the time – albeit he hadn’t dropped away either – and soon lost touch afterwards. The Mighty Don looks a fearful jumper – by which I mean I think he hates chasing. There was a sense of inevitability about his departure at the 12th.

I prefer Danny Whizzbang’s NH Chase prospects to those of the likeable Tarada, who gave Slate House something of a fright at Huntingdon in December and got off the mark himself over fences at Wetherby the day after Boxing Day. Mind you, it would have taken an act of gigantic self-sabotage for him to have done anything else.

He faced two rivals: one, decidedly inferior on what little evidence we have and who jumped poorly until unseating his rider at the 12th, and another who, in a first-time visor, never showed the slightest enthusiasm for his task and was being ridden along at the end of the first circuit.

It’s highly doubtful the lanky Tarada reproduced the form shown on his chase debut, not least because he adjusted right at most fences – a trait that would put you off for Cheltenham. It was also noted by trainer Oliver Sherwood but he’s not intending to act upon it in the short term, given he plans to return to Wetherby in February for a Grade Two three-mile novices’ chase.

“Tarada is a huge horse with ability,” he said. “He jumped slightly right and will probably be better going the other way. The horse [unseating] didn't help in that regard and he'll be better with more company. We might come back here for the Towton.”

Over in Ireland, what should have been an informative edition of the Grade One Neville Hotels Novice Chase in effect evaporated into a Gigginstown match when Minella Indo and Carefully Selected were withdrawn because the ground was deemed unsuitably quick.

That left Battleoverdoyen to lead round stablemate Champagne Classic in little more than a steady bout of schooling. The winner’s jumping was good – notably swift at a couple of fences – but if you can’t be faultless under those circumstances, you shouldn’t be considered for Grade One honours at all. The winner is priced shortest for the RSA Chase (9-1), ahead of the NH Chase (16-1) and Marsh Chase (20-1) rightly in that order.

Many expected 2017 Martin Pipe winner Champagne Classic also to be withdrawn on account of the ground, having been sidelined with an injury for much of last year, but – no doubt to the relief of Leopsrdstown – he took his chance and tried valiantly to bridge the gap approaching the last. His careful brand of jumping would be most suited to the NH Chase rather than anything quicker or classier.

The withdrawal of Minella Indo poses an interesting dilemma for trainer Henry de Bromhead. He is as yet a maiden over fences and so would have ten months to enjoy novice status in Ireland were he not to get off the mark until February (or later). Is the next move: (a) easy pickings in a beginners’ chase and full steam ahead for the RSA? Or (b) wait until the Grade One Flogas and let the horse’s readiness to blossom dictate the pace of this season’s campaign?

As Kevin Blake has already pointed out in his Attheraces column, The Flip Side, Mullins faces the same choice with Allaho – although the fact that horse, aged six, is a year younger than Minella Indo is pertinent. Things are more straightforward with Allaho’s stable companion, Carefully Selected, who’s already off the mark over fences at Fairyhouse and must plot his way (presumably) to the NH Chase.

It was one of Mullins’ own, Easy Game, who beat Allaho in a 2m5f beginners’ chase at Leopardstown the day before Battleoverdoyen’s one-to-one tuition session. Allaho, third to Minella Indo in last year’s Albert Bartlett, set off in front on his chase debut and was soon a little way clear of rivals, who were mostly unable to get involved.

But he began to jump increasingly out to his left, to such a degree that I wouldn’t just be concerned about right-handed tracks. He’d adjusted left over hurdles when second to that same Cheltenham winner at Punchestown but this had a touch of the Yorkhills about it.

Perhaps he just needed his first run of the season badly and got tired a long way from home, as the yard were concluding many of theirs had done? The proximity of the maiden Myth Buster, hanging but not knocked about in third, raises overall doubts about the literal form.

In any case, those awkward leaps made it easier for Easy Game to take Allaho’s measure, despite his own righthanded jump two out and some scruffiness at the last. A dual graded novice-hurdle winner at Navan last season – who then struggled a shade when upped to the big league at Cheltenham, Fairyhouse and Punchestown – he’d at least had the benefit of a run behind Honeysuckle over hurdles in November.

I don’t know what Mullins’ plans for Castlebawn West are but I very much liked the cut of that horse’s jib over fences at Fairyhouse’s New Year’s Day fixture. It didn’t matter where he was placed in that 2m5f beginners’ chase by Mikey Fogarty, he jumped with equanimity and is palpably going to be a much better article as a chaser.

Rated 135 over hurdles, he was pulled up by Paul Townend following late blunders and reported “never travelling” in the 2019 Ballymore before recovering his form but playing an also-ran role at Fairyhouse and Punchestown. I shall now watch his developing career with revived interest.

The six-year-old Tizzard-trained Copperhead is on the rise. He’s won his last two starts in handicap chases, jumping well, and has now reached a mark of 145, but he’s a thorough stayer and would need to progress further to merit consideration for the NH Chase.

Before moving on from this Festival event, I must send best wishes for a speedy recovery to that likeable unbeaten chaser Sam Spinner, who has been ruled out for the season with a pelvic injury. It came to light a couple of weeks after last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle runner-up had scored for the third time over fences, in a Grade Two at Doncaster.

“We’re all absolutely gutted. He came out his race seemingly 100 per cent. We were really happy with him following the race and also back in the yard the next day – he looked a million dollars,” reported trainer Jedd O’Keeffe.

“He had a couple of easy weeks with light exercise to recover from the race and he [had] returned to light cantering… when we weren't happy with him. The vet had a look at him…They think he sustained the injury in the race and the return to training has flagged up the problem.”

The JCB Triumph Hurdle is shaping up to be an eyeballs-out, last-man-standing affair with the intractable Finale winner Allmankind and relentless Sandown scorer Goshen in the mix. Aspire Tower also made all to win Leopardstown’s Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle on St Stephen’s Day but I suspect his connections would rather see him take a lead in future.

In stepping up on his encouraging Punchestown debut success, Rachael Blackmore’s mount was a little keen in the early stages and then frequently displayed signs of inattention between hurdles – of which, like the preceding maiden hurdles, there were only six as a result of the first and last being omitted due to the low sun.

Nonetheless, he pulled 18 lengths clear of recent wide-margin Fairyhouse winner Wolf Prince and A Wave Of The Sea, whom trainer Joseph O’Brien had hoped to pep up with first-time cheekpieces and more prominent tactics while dispatching his stablemate and recent conqueror Cerberus to Chepstow to face Allmankind. Both plans misfired to a greater or lesser extent.

A thorough stayer, approaching the usual second last A Wave Of The Sea tried to go with Aspire Tower and well-touted Cork winner Clemencia – whose jumping kept him in it longer than his raw ability should have permitted – but was readily outpaced as the winner surged clear on the home turn. Wolf Prince came from further back than either of those pursuers for a clear second, without ever really threatening although he is improving on his own terms.

“I thought he did it really impressively. He went a really good gallop and jumped great,” winning trainer Henry de Bromhead said. “The Grade One back here in February is an obvious race to go for, but we'll talk to the owners and see what they want to do.

“He had the profile of one on the Flat that you would like to go hurdling with. I'd imagine good jumping ground would be alright for him as he's run on faster ground on the Flat.”

It would have been understandable had Robbie Power, riding Cerberus for O’Brien and new owner JP McManus in the Grade One Finale Juvenile Hurdle, believed it was a sure thing that headlong front-runner Allmankind would capitulate from exhaustion. Not a bit of it. Instead, it was the quick-jumping Cerberus who could find no extra approaching the last.

Between charging off at the start and charging home up the straight, it did look as though rider Harry Skelton managed to kid Allmankind into taking some form of breather. Perhaps, if you know him well, he has become more tractable because trainer Dan Skelton has totally ditched the straight-to-Cheltenham plan he was espousing in November. Either that or he believes the horse is on a short fuse, with no way of conserving it.

“Allmankind is a bit one dimensional as you cannot ride him any other way and, when he first came to the yard, I did not think he had the edge for jumping but he loves it,” he told the Racing Post. “I suppose something like the Victor Ludorum at Haydock or a trip to Leopardstown for a Grade One hurdle might be on the cards for him next.”

Whatever, his presence in the Triumph would aid Goshen, I reckon. The latter’s Flat form indicates he’s comfortable settling off the pace and he also jumped best at Sandown during the fleeting moments when his rivals could keep up. It’s just his propensity to jump right that niggles, so be sure ride Jamie Moore will seek out the stands’ rail if in contention swinging into the straight.

Other juveniles to note over this period include Rowland Ward, who jumped well to win on his second start over hurdles at Kempton and whose new trainer Stuart Edmonds thankfully learned fast that he in fact relishes soft ground. He’s a Boodles Fred Winter possible.

Never Do Nothing finished last Flat season rated 91 for Andrew Balding but promised to improve had he been tried over 14 furlongs. Now with John McConnell in Ireland, he won on his hurdling debut at Musselburgh on New Year’s Day despite being not fluent at times, particularly at the last, and is a very interesting recruit. He prefers a sound surface, however.

The previous day, the French recruit Blacko made a good impression on his debut (watch below) for Alan King when beating the Philip Hobbs-trained Zoffee, the pair more than 13 lengths clear, at Taunton. The runner-up had previously chased home the winner’s stablemate Lord Lamington at Market Rasen.

Blacko jumped particularly well, bar for stuttering into the last. Fraser Island was much the best in Newbury’s pre-Christmas juvenile hurdle, winning by 11 lengths nudged out after jumping largely well, if on occasions adjusting left. He stayed at least 12 furlongs on the Flat for Mark Johnston, reaching a peak rating of 83 but ending up on 74 and wearing headgear for his final two starts.

New trainer Nicky Henderson revealed that he’d been taught his new discipline by former trainer Henrietta Knight, “like we do with all the horses from the Flat – it's the best way to teach them”. “He's enjoyed himself but, without being critical about other people's horses, it wasn't a brilliant contest,” he added, indicating Fraser Island would be kept to this grade next time out.

Back in Ireland, the filly Leagan Gaeilge made a winning debut in the Leopardstown juvenile hurdle that has provided a leading Triumph Hurdle candidate for three of the last four years. The ill-fated Sir Erec won it in 2018, runner-up Mr Adjudicator in 2017 and winner Ivanovich Gorbatov in 2015.

She hails from Jim Bolger’s yard and was rated 80 on the Flat before joining Brendan Duke, who also trains Clemencia. She overcame some less-than-fluent early leaps and might warrant marking up for chasing leaders who may have pressed for home too soon. Back in fourth, Tronador very much caught the eye for future handicap purposes.

LYDIA'S SELECTIONS:

Advised on 20/11/19: Altior at 14/1 with William Hill for the Ryanair

Advised on 17/12/19: Chacun Pour Soi at 4/1 with various firms for the Champion Chase

Advised on 17/12/19: Mister Fisher at 16/1 e/w with Bet365, William Hill or BetFred for the JLT

RUBY'S SELECTIONS:

Advised on 28/11/19: Thyme Hill at 14/1 with various firms for the Albert Bartlett

Advised on 12/12/19: Carefully Selected at 20/1 with Skybet or BetVictor for the NH Chase