Lydia Hislop's Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Tips: Mighty Blue catches eye at 16-1

Three top-notch novice chasers – the absent Energumene notwithstanding – have long been expected to showcase their talents at Cheltenham this year (albeit frustratingly in different races).

So far, Shishkin and Monkfish have performed to script – the latter perhaps a little less assuredly than most envisaged – but can Envoi Allen, perhaps the most celebrated of them all, do the same?

The answer is most probably yes, even though his three chase victories to date lack substance. Already a dual Festival winner – most impressively when bossing a strongly run edition of the Ballymore 12 months ago – Envoi Allen has taken to fences with distinct poise. From the outset, he has displayed an ability to measure his fences, long or short, with a maturity beyond his experience as a novice. When all around him were losing their jockeys at Punchestown last time out, Jack Kennedy could rely on his mount to keep his head.

In the circumstances, it’s sensible that new trainer Henry de Bromhead, who acquired Envoi Allen among a quintet of horses in the Cheveley Park Stud exodus from Gordon Elliott’s yard. De Bromhead has attempted to avoid potential disruption by bringing in the horse's groom at his former stable, Seainin Mahon, to help with the move, and by retaining Kennedy for this Cheltenham assignment. That can only be a positive.

The doubt, raised by connections overnight, is whether good-to-soft ground – drying all the time – is a negative for his chances. It’s true that he has largely been campaigned during the deep-winter months, aside from his previous two visits to Cheltenham when the going was much softer than he’ll encounter here. Perhaps it will be an issue – it wasn’t a factor that I had hitherto much feared.

If it is, then the chances of my play in this race against him would be enhanced. I like Shan Blue for this, especially now that he’s drifted from clear second favourite. On their Ballymore encounter, when there were 27 lengths between them (exacerbated by Shan Blue getting unbalanced on landing two out), this rival has no chance. But he has taken to chasing with an arresting verve.

Shan Blue jumps fast and accurately – as demonstrated when drawing errors from The Big Breakaway in the Grade One Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over Christmas but also when doing too much up front in testing conditions at Sandown and getting outstayed by Sporting John. The former rival advertised the form better than the latter in yesterday’s Brown Advisory Chase. Shan Blue’s slick Wetherby success last October testified that he’s equally adept left-handed.

With a quickfire opening fence here and no obvious rival to take him on for the lead, Shan Blue could be placing all of his rivals under pressure from an early stage. Indeed, it might be Envoi Allen who attempts to give closest chase.

The Skelton brothers, trainer Dan and jockey Harry, have endured a frustrating meeting to date due to hitting the crossbar repeatedly and yet all their horses have run well in defeat. The doubt is whether he needs a flat track to produce his best, but he has just an outside squeak of causing an upset – enough to risk an each-way bet at 11/1. Heresy, I know.

Nicky Henderson believes he has a strong band of novice chasers this season but only the mighty Shishkin has substantiated that assertion to date. Dickie Diver’s comparative lack of physical scope manifested itself from the outset in the Brown Advisory yesterday with ragged or tentative jumping. Here, the Seven Barrows team rely on Chantry House and Fusil Raffles.

The former started well, dotting up in a three-runner affair at Ascot, but bombed behind that stable companion at this track in December when rider Nico de Boinville reported that his mount struggled to jump out of the deep ground and was slowly away from his fences as a result. On that basis and also his promising third in last year’s Supreme – when shaping as though he’d do better over further – he could be the one to chase Envoi Allen home if Shan Blue blows out.

Chatham Street Lad has one freakishly good performance to his name, conveniently at this track when routing what should have been a competitive Caspian Caviar Gold Cup by 15 lengths. Although dropping back to 2m1f at Fairyhouse last time was probably too sharp a test, he will still need to prove himself in a different tempo of race and on quicker ground here.

Gavin Cromwell has opted for this longer event rather than the Arkle with Darver Star and, given the frenetic pace at which that sharper Grade One was conducted, he probably made the correct choice. Good enough to finish third as a longstanding novice in last year’s Champion Hurdle, this horse was out of his comfort zone from an early stage behind Energumene in the Irish Arkle last time out. The better ground should help here, however.

I can’t have Willie Mullins’ duo. It might be that Asterion Forlonge is less afflicted by jumping right on the more galloping New Course than when this trait was so marked in last year’s Supreme. (Ladies and gentleman, I give you Exhibit A: Goshen.) However, he also either lacks craft or nerve at his fences, as his failure even to match his novice-hurdling form has to date betrayed.

Stablemate Blackbow is another who too often places fences in the too-difficult tray, albeit a ride of judicious patience from Danny Mullins last time elicited a career-best 11-length third behind stable companion Energumene in the Irish Arkle last time out. The first fence comes up awfully quickly at this trip and on this track. This pair’s chances may be over before they’ve barely begun.

_Back now: Shan Blue at 11/1 each-way with various firms _

Perhaps the best way to approach the most compelling edition of the Ryanair that I can recall is via titleholder Min, who faces a much deeper field than 12 months ago and arrives in markedly worse form. This time last year, he’d given Champion Chase beaten favourite Chacun Pour Soi a fight at a track that suits his stablemate well, but last month he was never travelling or jumping in the same Grade One Dublin Chase and was pulled up.

During the current Road To Cheltenham series, Ruby Walsh has argued that Min is capable of throwing in a bad run but that’s hard to spot from the outside, so this latest development was disconcerting. Although Paul Townend controlled last year’s Ryanair, his mount only clung on from Saint Calvados at the line because he’d been allowed to drift left and inconvenience that rival’s ambitious inside challenge at the final fence.

He might have shortened up overnight, but Min has to be opposed.

Stablemate Allaho is next in the market and he boasts a nearly profile at Festivals past – ideal, one might argue, for a Ryanair – via hitting the frame in the 2019 Albert Bartlett and last year’s RSA Chase, when doing too much to last home.

The good news is he’s got better with each start this season and remains unexposed at this trip; the bad news is he’s starting to look as though he falls slightly short in Grade One company. He bossed proceedings at Thurles last time, but that was a Grade Two.

Sticking with Team Mullins, Melon is a Festival stalwart with an unenviable record – depending on whether you have first-world problems – of finishing second four times. In last year’s Marsh Novices’ Chase, his nose was in front a stride before and after the line. Samcro’s nose was in front where is counted, but he’d idled after surging ahead to the extent of making himself vulnerable.

Melon should surely run well, with the cheekpieces back on, dropping back in trip, reverting to the unfettered tactics that suit him best and at a course for which he reserves his best. He may be the longest-priced of the Mullins trio, but I believe him the most likely to give his running.

Fittingly for his status as a holy relic, Samcro’s claims require more faith. He ran dully at Down Royal in October before never getting involved when upped to three miles for the Savills Chase. His mere record as a dual Festival winner entitles him to plenty of respect here and the drier ground will suit him well.

Sticking with last year’s Marsh, Mister Fisher was positioned too far back in a contest dominated by those who raced prominently and rider Nico de Boinville employed more positive tactics to good effect when winning the rescheduled Peterborough Chase on this track in December. His connections have always maintained that a sound surface suits him best, so opportunity knocks for a horse who is yet to prove he’s genuine Grade One material.

Similar comments apply to Imperial Aura, who appeared likely to make the grade with an assured start to this season at Carlisle and, more pertinently, at Ascot after winning the Festival’s now-defunct novices’ handicap chase last year. However, he uncharacteristically lost concentration and unseated David Bass early at Kempton in January. He has a point to prove.

Dashel Drasher is an unexpected guest because although he earned his place with a Grade One triumph at Ascot last time out, that was a relatively weak affair and it somewhat fell apart. Afterwards, trainer Jeremy Scott did not appear sold on this idea but has clearly had a change of heart. Whether his stable flagbearer can hold his position and attain a rhythm in the heat of this contest is, to my mind, doubtful. He looks particularly suited by Ascot.

Most of these uncertainties were manifest last month when I advised a 12/1 each-way bet in this race on Fakir D’Oudairies and I remain happy with that position. Following a performance comparable to Samcro’s in the Savills Chase, he appeared to have regained his verve when second to Chacun Pour Soi in the Dublin Chase last time out.

Stepping back up to a trip over which he scored at Grade One level as a novice and returned to a venue where he has flourished in the past, finishing fourth in the 2019 Supreme and second in the 2020 Arkle, he has the right credentials to step forward again.

I remain hopeful that Fanion D’Estruval has a good race in him, probably at this trip but on a flatter track. The accuracy of his jumping has unravelled at two-mile speed but its low French style was also undone by the third last at this track in December.

Amy Murphy has applied cheekpieces to Kalashnikov after attempting three miles in the Denman Chase, where her stable star failed to find a rhythm. He’s finished second in the 2018 Supreme and was brought down in all but name in the following year’s Arkle, but he’s struggled to make a mark at this level and this race doesn’t appear a likely avenue of change.

Real Steel was still travelling well approaching the final flight in last year’s Gold Cup, so steadily was it run, but he was put off his jumping by Imperial Aura at Ascot and has since broken a blood vessel in the King George. He will like the ground but might be a shade below what’s required.

Tornado Flyer shaped to my eyes as though he needed further than this trip in last year’s Marsh, but Bryan Cooper advised dropping him in trip after finishing second to Min in the 2m4f John Durkan. Accordingly, he was then negatively ridden over three miles in the Savills Chase prior to being taken off his feet in the Dublin Chase. Perhaps he’s trip-less? He’s surely not good enough for this.

Paisley Park is justifiably favourite to become the first horse since Inglis Drever to regain his Stayers’ crown – as that three-times winner of this race managed in 2007. The 2019 victor was favourite prior to the withdrawal of Thyme Hill, against whom he’d been developing a compelling rivalry, and has only shortened since.

It was hard to imagine Thyme Hill turning the Long Walk form around with Paisley Park, given he rescued faithful rider Aidan Coleman from what the jockey freely admits was a tactical error when getting shuffled back to rear entering the straight at Ascot. The fact that he was able to recover from that setback signalled that we should regard the atrial fibrillation that troubles him in last year’s Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle as a thing of the past.

However, 2/1 is a shade short when you consider that Sire Du Berlais produced a comparable performance on the clock when winning the 2019 Pertemps over the same course-and-distance as this Grade One. He produced a smarter performance than last year’s winner of this, Lisnagar Oscar, when following up in the same event 12 months later.

He’s made the switch to graded company well this season, having speed enough to win over 2m4f in the Lismullen Hurdle prior to getting involved in some scrimmaging with Fury Road while Flooring Porter was making off with Leopardstown’s Christmas Hurdle over Christmas.

At nine years of age, he’s left it late to be breaking into the big time but he was over-priced at 10/1 earlier this season. I must admit, however, I was expecting Sire Du Berlais’ connections to perform the headgear switch that has served them so well in Festivals past: first-time cheekpieces in 2019, switched for first-time blinkers last year. I was confidently predicting a visor...

In that context, the recent money for Fury Road is disconcerting. He was less well-positioned than the winner (and yesterday’s Brown Advisory hero) Monkfish – but similarly to runner-up Latest Exhibition – when third in last year’s Albert Bartlett, worn down after hitting the front approaching the last.

He’s improved steadily this season but, despite jumping the better, was worn down late by Beacon Edge in Navan’s Boyne Hurdle last time out. Afterwards, his subsequently suspended trainer Gordon Elliott suggested Fury Road’s preparation had not gone smoothly, so an improved performance here can reasonably be expected. I certainly expect him to reverse that form against a horse trying three miles for the first time. Fury Road is probably also versatile ground-wise.

The Storyteller finished runner-up to Sire Du Berlais, receiving 3lb, in last year’s Pertemps and can be relied upon to run another solid race for the Denise Foster-led Cullentra House team. This horse is superbly consistent and versatile, coming here after finishing second to Kemboy in the Irish Gold Cup. Prior to that, he was second in the Christmas Hurdle. What a horse. He also won the 2018 Festival Plate and is a solid place player here.

There should be a strong pace here. Although both front-running past runners-up in this race, Lil Rockerfeller, in 2017, and Sam Spinner, in 2019, are less reliable than they were, they should be aided and abetted by Vinndication, who’s seeking to emulate Big Buck’s by targeting this race after unseating in the Ladbrokes Trophy (formerly the Hennessy).

He was a progressive hurdler long ago in the 2017/18 season and then took to fences well, to the extent that he finished a high-class fourth off 159 in last season’s Ultima despite his habit of adjusting right. He ran encouragingly, unsuited by a relative speed test, when second to Cyrname in the Charlie Hall and had been aimed at the Gold Cup, but trainer Kim Bailey has regularly reported that he’s struggled to get Vinndication right since Newbury. He’s a realistic player here.

Flooring Porter has made the running, slipping his field, the last twice when winning a Navan handicap and then fooling more vaunted rivals in the Christmas Hurdle. He won’t be able to pull off those tactics here and trainer Gavin Cromwell is rightly concerned about this horse’s habit of going out to his left as there is no inside rail to guide him on this track.

A strong pace will bring out the best, again, in Lisnagar Oscar, who has shaped well this season. He travelled strongly into both the West Yorkshire and Long Distance Hurdles before weakening quickly, causing connections to augment his breathing. His Rendlesham second last time out strongly suggests that operation has worked and he will be better suited by this more galloping track.

Perpetually underestimated because he won this at 50/1, he’s a player.

If there is a credible left-field contender, it’s surely Reserve Tank – a progressive novice hurdler two seasons ago, culminating in a Grade One win at Punchestown, who did not take to fences last season.

He was too keen and typically jumped out to his left even at Fontwell when returning from almost a year off last month, but has latent ability and likes a sound surface. Team Tizzard produced both Fiddlerontheroof and The Big Breakaway to perform well in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase yesterday.

Bacardys doesn’t jump well enough, prefers testing ground and isn’t in such good form as he was prior to last year’s third. If The Cap Fits switches here after not taking to fences and is unexposed at the trip, if probably better on a flat track. If it was hard to argue the case for Thyme Hill reversing the Long Walk Hurdle form with Paisley Park, it’s impossible for Main Fact and the hugely likeable Younevercall, who has always been thought to need a right-handed track.

As his last act with novice status, Caribean Boy registered a high-class performance when beating Brown Advisory runner-up Fiddlerontheroof at Newbury in November. Since then, he’s appeared less comfortable on deeper ground and perhaps racing right-handed.

Willie Mullins has won all five editions of this race and again holds a strong hand, headed by Hook Up and Gauloise. The former’s Grade One Chanelle Pharma fourth is strong form, as Appreciate It and Blue Lord advertised in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on the opening day of the Festival. Like Blue Lord, Hook Up also came from further back than ideal that day. The issue is her jumping, as she is error-prone, but she should be favourite.

Roseys Hollow, Royal Kahala and Gauloise finished close up together in that order at Fairyhouse last time out, with the runner-up emerging as the best at the weights. Some tweaks to the riding tactics could have seen the cards fall in a different order, however.

I’m interested that Joseph O’Brien has sent over Mighty Blue, because she was adrift of the front three that day but does have a high level of Flat form on a sound surface. She should improve plenty here.

I fancied Plan Of Attack for this race last year and he interests me again from a 3lb lower mark and with blinkers applied for the first time. He hasn’t been in good form this season but this return to a sounder surface will suit. I expect Milanford will run well, too.

_Selection: Back now: Plan Of Attack win-only at 17/2 with Paddy Power _