Lydia Hislop's best bets for the first day of the Cheltenham Festival

The smallest field in Cheltenham Festival history faces the starter for this year’s Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – meaning if we get just one non-runner, we’re down to two places. At the prices, I’m inclined to take on the favourite Appreciate It with British raider Metier on a win-only basis – albeit Sunday night’s unanticipated 12mm of rain is no negative for either of them.

There has been a running argument that Appreciate It would be disadvantaged by drying ground over two miles, as a horse deemed more of a stayer in the early part of the season by trainer Willie Mullins. There’s also no doubt he was far more impressive when winning at Leopardstown over Christmas than when again triumphing there at the Dublin Racing Festival last time out.

However, a strong stayer at the minimum trip tends to be what you need for a Supreme – admittedly in much larger fields – and Appreciate It was unlikely to have been as impressive in the circumstances of jockey Paul Townend controlling a steady-ish pace last time out. I suspect his mount will again be better with a lead.

He’s surely going to get that here, with the headstrong For Pleasure in the line-up. He hared off over this course-and-distance last November, jumping out to his left and clearly doing too much and yet still emphatically beating plausible County Hurdle contender Third Time Lucki. Although he was less on-song at Newbury last time out, he is too highly rated to be ignored by this field and so pretty much guarantees dragging them through the sectionals at a good pace.

But the bottom line is that I don’t think Appreciate It is as far superior over Metier as the market makes it. The respective prices are surely partly inspired by Willie Mullins’ unmatched record in the race – he’s trained the winner six times, including four of the last eight winners. But Harry Fry palpably believed Metier to be well-handicapped on 148 for the Betfair Hurdle prior to sidestepping the race due to its postponement to a slot eight days after its scheduled date. The trainer feared the shorter recovery time ahead of Cheltenham might compromise his Supreme chances.

The prospect of drying ground had been cited as another reason to oppose Metier, after he sauntered through the mud to win Sandown’s Grade One Tolworth Hurdle – a route both Summerville Boy in 2018 and Noland in 2006 have taken to victory in this event. However, I have come to regard that argument as overblown and the recent rain has diminished its impact anyway.

The rain is a negative for Ballyadam, whose price disparity with Appreciate It nonetheless remains too large because he made a substantial advance from a relatively disadvantageous midfield slot against that rival last time out to be the only feasible challenger in the straight. His jumping isn’t the most fluent, however.

The frame-based argument for Blue Lord is understandable, given he came from even further back than Ballyadam when finishing third in that steadily run race and For Pleasure’s presence should ensure that the pace is sufficient for him to receive a more straightforward ride to help him settle.

Fifth-placed Irascible is likeable but was better positioned than either Ballyadam or Blue Lord last time out and shaped as though he wants further. There’s a scenario in which he could finish third but I wouldn’t want to take odds about it.

First-time cheekpieces might elicit yet further improvement, particularly in the jumping department, from recent Betfair Hurdle winner, Soaring Glory. But he will very much need to progress again to feature here and is a good deal more exposed than most of his rivals. Grumpy Charley is on an upward curve and will press the pace, but he may need more testing ground and his usual rider can’t claim his conditional-status 3lb in this Grade One.

Just the six runners face the starter for the first chasing event of the Cheltenham Festival – a set-up that has become more usual since the addition of the Marsh Novices’ Chase over 2m4f ten years ago. Since then, the Arkle has attracted just a single-figure field on six occasions and mustered only five runners when Footpad triumphed in 2018.

There’s no doubt Energumene’s exit due to lameness has knocked the stuffing out of one of the most eagerly awaited contests of the 2021 Festival. It presents Harry Skelton with an easier tactical premise on Allmankind, who might otherwise have been more hassled from an early stage and experienced his mount’s jumping being examined upsides sooner than ideal.

Rank outsider Numitor will stick with Allmankind as long as possible, unless connections opt to quell his usual run style in favour of increasing his chances of finishing anything other than last. However, the free-going Captain Guinness undoubtedly won’t be too far behind – he might even press – as he kept close tabs on Energumene until tipping up at the second last at the Dublin Racing Festival, just as Rachael Blackmore was urging him to serve up a challenge.

But the crux of the race is how far Nico de Boinville positions odds-on favourite Shishkin behind that pace – and his task has probably become mildly more complicated with Energumene’s departure. However, it’s nothing insurmountable.

Shishkin has taken to fences seamlessly and his finishing split from three out to the line compared very favourably with that of leading Champion Chase hopeful Nube Negra over the same course and distance at Kempton last December.

Since then at Doncaster, Shishkin comfortably accounted for Eldorado Allen – who may have ended up here rather than in the Grand Annual by mistake – when appearing a shade lethargic early on but then snapping back on the bridle the moment he was asked. How reminiscent he is, in both regards, of his illustrious veteran stablemate, Altior, in his younger days.

Some have argued that Shishkin looked uncomfortable down the hill in last year’s Supreme and that Allmankind and Captain Guinness might steal a march on him from three out. It’s a model worth running as I can see something like that playing out, especially if one of those two rivals’ jumping fails and the other is left in a long lead. Neither Allmankind nor Captain Guinness is cast iron in this department – albeit both can also be brilliant – whereas Shishkin appears very sound.

Yes, Shishkin did well to triumph over adversity last March, having made a mistake at the third that had him battling to hold his position thereafter. He lost his position at the top of the hill, but made up ground readily when switched to the outer. Yet, undoubtedly, he was helped in this task by Asterion Forlonge causing havoc at the third- and second-last hurdles. The knock-on effect even brought Captain Guinness down at the penultimate flight.

On the basis of that Kempton performance, I’m backing Shishkin to have the innate finishing power to work his way into the race from two out. Working out who chases him home is more complicated but, in the scenario that Captain Guinness presses Allmankind until after two out, I can see Franco De Port staying on for second after the last flight. He’s a Grade One winner over fences, after all, and seems best suited by patient tactics. It’s not a strong view, however.

Advised 20/01/21: Darver Star each-way at 25/1 NRNB with Paddy Power – MONEY BACK

It’s not original but Happygolucky has a strong chance in an otherwise relatively weak Ultima Handicap Chase. He’s progressive, has been laid out for this race and to avoid deep ground and even finished an excellent fourth – unlucky not to have been third – in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle at last year’s Festival.

The favourite also jumps well and is unexposed as a stayer, whereas you can pick track and trip holes, among other things, in his key rivals. His price isn’t life-changing, but his task is one of the easier ones over these four days, in my opinion.

This will be a strongly run affair – whether or not Not So Sleepy misses the break, as he did due to a false start last year – due to the phoenix-like presence of Goshen. Throw in Aspire Tower and Silver Streak, the latter improved for positive tactics last time out, and you have a white-hot gallop such that favourite Honeysuckle has yet to experience.

Rachael Blackmore’s mount, unbeaten in ten starts over hurdles and gloriously pitched in here rather than defending her Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle crown, has only shortened in the market since the unpredicted rain fell on Prestbury Park last Sunday night. A pause on drying conditions will undoubtedly help her cause.

She also didn’t lack speed in victory last year, taking up her characteristically prominent outer position from an early stage and even nipping up the inside on the home turn to take race-defining advantage of a tactical error from Team Mullins.

However, this is not an Annie Power or Faugheen Champion Hurdle scenario. There is competition for the front and there are quicker horses than Honeysuckle in this field, so Blackmore is unlikely to have the option of controlling this pace, either going fast like Annie Power or steady like Faugheen. Goshen has the kind of pace that can get his rivals out of their comfort zone.

Leopardstown’s lay-out for the Dublin Racing Festival, where Honeysuckle has twice won the Irish Champion Hurdle, is also more akin to Cheltenham’s galloping New Course than the tight and turning Old Course, host to the Unibet Champion Hurdle. So, it is a new test for the mare – one for which I’m far from dismissive of her chances but was disinclined to take 5/2, let alone her current best-priced 7/4.

She risks also being inconvenienced by Goshen jumping right into her path, complicating where Blackmore opts to position her mount. The Old Course is likely to bring out Goshen’s adjusting habit more evidently than did the New Course in 2020, when his Triumph Hurdle bid ended in heart-breaking disaster when unseating in the clear at the last.

Trainer Gary Moore has since faced a challenge to get him right – including when Goshen ran so badly in the International that an attendant vet even suggested atrial fibrillation might be to blame. Moore has since concluded his flagbearer simply doesn’t like being crowded and has individualised his training regime to nurture his huge raw ability. Accordingly, Goshen came roaring back with a ready display of raw pace in Wincanton’s Kingwell Hurdle.

The recent rain is a positive but the evidence of the International Hurdle has provided his rivals with a method of unsettling Goshen. If they crowd or hassle him, they know they stand a chance of pushing him off his game. If rider Jamie Moore seeks to free himself of such a threat, there’s a chance he could be induced to go too fast. Either way, he’s vulnerable to my mind.

By far the easiest tactical task falls to titleholder Epatante, on whom Aidan Coleman can observe the machinations of his two main rivals. Clearly, he wouldn’t want to be so far back that if either Honeysuckle or Goshen falters early, he has too much of a gap to bridge to the lead but he should get a tow into the race that showcases this mare’s talents to best effect.

Granted, she has to bounce back from a lacklustre performance over Christmas. On paper, even her visually silky Fighting Fifth success doesn’t amount to much on the clock. But Nicky Henderson came up with a combination of reasons why Epatante was below form at Kempton – that she might have been in season, hence the shaking of her head so agitatedly beforehand, and that she was carrying a back problem, since addressed, hence her uncharacteristically scrappy jumping.

We have to take these excuses on trust, of course, but the Seven Barrows trainer and owner JP McManus were happy to decide last week that Epatante could go it alone on Tuesday rather than be backed up by dual previous titleholder and stablemate Buveur D’Air. Granted, he’s probably not the horse he once was but he wasn’t a no-hoper, so this spoke of team confidence.

More than anything, we’re getting 4/1 for form, in the exact circumstances required, that is at least as good as anything else in the field (taking into account the mare’s 7lb allowance). If you fancy her, I would even hold back for best-priced-guaranteed terms as I suspect she is the likeliest to drift among the big three – at least until Shishkin (probably) wins the Arkle.

I suspect one, maybe even two, of that trio won’t ultimately make the frame and, to my mind, the rival most likely to hit it is Abacadabras, whose style of running means he’ll be delivered late. He tends to pull himself up in front, hence Davy Russell felt he got to the lead too soon when second in last year’s Supreme after circumstance – a.k.a. Asterion Forlonge – conspired against him.

2020 runner-up Sharjah is likely to be ridden closer to Epatante this year and is also a place contender, but this is a stronger renewal and the recent rain is slight negative for him – as it is for Silver Streak, who also won’t be able to dictate terms as he did in the Christmas Hurdle. He is more versatile than that, however, and can be relied upon to run his doughty, high-class race.

I can believe that Aspire Tower wasn’t at his best in last year’s Triumph Hurdle, when refusing to settle and jumping out to his left, but I think he might be discomforted early on here. 2019 Morgiana Hurdle winner Saldier has been fragile to train and disconcertingly regressed on his seasonal debut last time out

Selection:

I’m less convinced than the market that Concertista’s form is so comfortably superior to that of her key rival. Roksana’s achievements this season, whilst admittedly over three miles, are just as good and largely achieved in deeper waters. Yet the fortunate 2019 winner of this Grade One mares’ event is 11/4 and the favourite is 11/8.

The flaw in that argument is we may not yet have seen the best of Concertista – in fact, that’s probably quite likely, given that she’s unexposed at 2m4f and this is the first full season in which Willie Mullins feels he has got her training right. He spoke of having changed her regime prior to her Dawn Run success at last year’s Festival and the mare has responded ever since with progressive form.

However, her price encompasses the fact her trainer has won eight of the 13 past editions of this race – and it would have been nine had Benie Des Dieux not fallen when clear at the last in 2019. Whilst I think Concertista is too short, shortcomings in her main rival’s ability at this specific task makes taking her on win-only less appealing, too.

With her markedly patient tactics, Roksana couldn’t get into this race last year and is plainly more at home over a longer trip. Having originally resolved to attempt the Stayers’ Hurdle this season, rather than this race for the third occasion, trainer Dan Skelton changed his mind based on the reasoning that her Long Walk Hurdle third says Paisley Park is superior whereas her standing with Concertista is as yet unknown. You can understand that logic.

So, I’m inclined to watch this match-up and instead take a view in the ‘Betting without Concertista’ market. The next phalanx of mares looks much of a muchness and yet their odds span quite a broad range.

Dame De Compagnie probably only ended up here because then-rider Nico de Boinville was knocked out of the saddle by the fall of Hitman in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase last time out. That left the mare ill-prepared for any Festival novice-chase target with just one success, in a match, to her name and so the switch was made. Aidan Coleman, who also partners Epatante for owner JP McManus, rides her here.

She beat Black Tears by two-and-a-quarter lengths, conceding 4lb, in last year’s Coral Cup and that form puts both of them in the mix for a place. Black Tears will need to have improved more on her showing of 12 months ago, when Dame De Compagnie accounted for her with a degree of comfort, but she may have been campaigned with this target in mind. Last season, she had been kept very busy whereas last time out she looked fresh and dominant at Punchestown.

However, Minella Melody has comparable form and yet, at 18/1 in this alternative market, she is three times the price of Black Tears and almost six times that of Dame De Compagnie. She suffers from association with Concertista, having been beaten by her twice this season and resoundingly so last time out. But she had Black Tears six lengths behind her and My Sister Sarah a further 11 lengths adrift. In the formbook, she’s Ireland’s second-best chance.

I’m also inclined to roll the dice with Floressa, however, because she’ll be stepping up to a trip she clearly needs – both on the basis of being out-speeded by Miranda at Doncaster last time and the longstanding testimony of her injured regular partner, Jerry McGrath. The mount of de Boinville here, she wouldn’t need to improve much to have the third-best form in the whole line-up, plus we have a reason why that might happen, and yet she’s 25/1 in this alternative market.

Assuming Concertista hits the frame – and barring a fall or something bizarre, she should – adopting this approach with Minella Melody and Floressa affords an extra slot in the place market and yet, given Roksana is not contesting over her optimum trip, also affords a chance of finishing second.

Indefatigable has had an operation to improve her breathing after three pretty abject efforts this season. Last term’s on-the-line winner of the Martin Pipe would need to have improved on that form even to turn around her standing with Dame De Compagnie, however. My Sister Sarah has undergone a similar procedure but might be better right-handed. The others aren’t good enough.

I addressed every runner bar Elham Valley and Curious Bride in last Thursday’s preview of this event, so I won’t go into that level of detail here and will instead focus on what’s changed from the five-day field to the 48-hour declaration stage. In short, I’m still happy with this column’s position in this race – albeit I was expecting Busselton to have shortened.

We didn’t know for sure then that Saint Sam would be contesting this rather than Friday’s JCB Triumph Hurdle, although the market move for stablemate Haut En Couleurs for the latter race despite the defection of French Aseel raised my suspicions. An undecided Willie Mullins – tautology alert – had mentioned both targets for Saint Sam during Festival-preview season.

His presence arguably makes Busselton’s task that bit harder because he’s got four-and-three-quarter lengths to find. Admittedly, he’s got a 4lb pull, first-time cheekpieces and an improving profile with which to do that, but Saint Sam has a first-time hood to curb the excessive enthusiasm he showed behind Quilixios last time out and he did manage to go with an A-game Zanahiyr until two out at Fairyhouse last November. Saint Sam should be favourite, I think.

There’s also plenty of pace on here and he ran better than the literal form when fourth behind Zanahiyr in a steadily run affair at Leopardstown over Christmas, getting checked and having to switch round the field in the straight. That also showed that patient tactics can be utilised. Drying ground is an unknown, however.

Homme Public is now half the price of last Thursday, as others have noticed how closely matched he is on their Auteuil form with favourite Houx Gris, from whom he receives 3lb here. He also jumps instinctively well and is improving for his up-and-coming trainer Oliver Greenall.

For the sake of completeness, I’ll address the bottom two in the weights, too. Elham Valley has almost five lengths to find with Houx Gris on their Finale form and a 4lb pull at the weights, but his form appears to have plateaued and – as explained in my previous columns – there are reasons to believe Paul Nicholls’ charge can upgrade his Chepstow showing.

Curious Bride faced both elder mares and 2m5f in a Navan Listed event last time out, getting detached and ultimately pulled up. She is more fairly judged on her preceding Punchestown success and that gives her a better chance than odds of 33/1 would suggest, albeit this might prove too much of a speed test for her.

Advised 11/03/21: Busselton at 8/1 win only NRNB with various firms

Advised 11/03/21: Homme Public at 28/1 each-way (5 places) NRNB with Sky Bet

I also previewed this race in full last Thursday and so, as for the Boodles Fred Winter, will concentrate here on what has changed since then. Of course, the biggest factor is the exit of Royale Pagaille to the WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup but the reactive addition of Next Destination must now be considered instead.

Paul Nicholls has recounted how it necessitated a three-hour phonecall with owner Malcolm Denmark until both were happy that this 3m6f Grade Two novices’ event should be prioritised over Wednesday’s Grade One Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase over five furlongs shorter.

“The ground is drying a fraction and probably the slowest ground will be the first day, which will suit him,” Nicholls explained to the Racing Post. “If the ground had been soft, I’d have been quite keen to go for what was the RSA. But I think three miles on goodish ground might be a bit sharp for him, whereas the 3m6f will suit him better.

“Venetia’s [Williams, trainer of Royale Pagaille] horse heads to the Gold Cup, which gave [the NH Chase] a bit more of an open look, and weighing up all the facts we felt the best chance of winning was probably this race. Monkfish does look solid as well, doesn’t he?”

So, we’ve exchanged one apparently utterly dominant player – albeit with a track/jumping query – for a less experienced rival, who’s unbeaten in a pair of Grade Two starts over fences. I think I’d rather take on Next Destination than Royale Pagaille with Escaria Ten, on the basis that this unexpected rival’s form isn’t that far superior, his experience profile is more comparable and we’ve bagged better than three times the favourite’s current price.

That said, I’m not surprised Next Destination has supplanted Galvin as favourite as this is a horse deemed classy enough, in the right circumstances, to contest the Brown Advisory, who finished second in the West Yorkshire Hurdle on seasonal debut and won the Grade One staying novices’ hurdle at Punchestown when last previously racing in 2018 (when trained by Willie Mullins).

His jumping kept him in the game when outpaced against Fiddlerontheroof at Warwick last time out and, although he lacks Galvin’s advantageous second-season profile over fences for this challenge, the 12mm of rain that Cheltenham unexpectedly received on Sunday night will only have further convinced his trainer that the right decision has been made.

My outsider Soldier Of Love is sadly a non-runner, but having backed him with a 'money back' caveat, at least we'll get the stake returned.

Advised 11/03/21: Escaria Ten at 10/1 win-only on ante-post terms with William Hill

Advised 11/03/21: Soldier Of Love at 33/1 each-way NRNB with Bet365 - MONEY BACK